Sweet 16 predictions: Picking the winner of every Sweet 16 game of March Madness

Everything about the first two rounds embodied the chaos of March Madness but will the Sweet 16 present more upsets? Predictions for every game. 

Unpredictability was the reigning narrative over the opening weekend of March Madness and the 2021 NCAA Tournament. With four double-digit seeds advancing to the Sweet 16, that much is evident. But at the same time, there are also still three No. 1 seeds and two No. 2 seeds alive in the dance for a National Championship. So maybe it wasn’t entirely impossible to predict.

With the field now narrowed down to the Sweet 16, we have to take what we’ve seen and apply it to any predictions moving forward. The hope is that helps us make better projections now that we know which teams are hot, which teams were over or under-seeded, and which teams are seemingly volatile at this point of March Madness.

As we parse through the lessons of the First Round and Round of 32, we’re diving into the Sweet 16 and, despite how chaotic things have been in March Madness to this point, predicting the outcome of the eight games on Saturday and Sunday as the field continues to get whittled down.

Sweet 16 predictions for March Madness 2021

No. 12 Oregon State vs. No. 8 Loyola-Chicago (Sat., 2:40 p.m. ET)

The Beavers have been white-hot as they ran through the Pac-12 Tournament to get into the field and have since knocked off Tennessee and Oklahoma State. But will that change against a Loyola-Chicago team that, frankly, has looked better than a No. 8 seed for the entire season?

My belief is that it will. Oregon State loves to muddy up the game and make things ugly but that’s going to be extremely difficult with a Ramblers team that is so experienced and well-coached behind Cameron Krutwig and more. Moreover, the Loyola-Chicago defense will wreak havoc on a Beavers offense that can sometimes get stagnant.

Prediction: Loyola-Chicago advances

No. 5 Villanova vs. No. 1 Baylor (Sat., 5:15 p.m. ET)

It’s hard not to think that Villanova isn’t playing with fire a bit, though it’s admirable that they’ve made it to the Sweet 16 without Collin Gillespie on the floor. But they had a good matchup with Winthrop and then overwhelmed North Texas getting hot from 3-point range.

Doing the same against Baylor, one of the best perimeter defensive teams in the country, is going to be a monumental task for Jay Wright’s team. The stellar guard play of the Bears on both ends of the floor will be too much for ‘Nova to handle and Scott Drew will keep marching towards apparent destiny.

Prediction: Baylor advances

No. 15 Oral Roberts vs. No. 3 Arkansas (Sat., 7:25 p.m. ET)

Arkansas hasn’t played the prettiest brand of basketball to this point while Oral Roberts has been arguably the story of March Madness to this point. Their two-man game with Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor has been unstoppable to this point, hence the Golden Eagles becoming only the second No. 15 seed ever to make it to the Sweet 16.

Unfortunately, the run stops here. The length and athleticism of the Razorbacks is going to cause Abmas problems on the outside and, with one part of the two-man game stifled, that will open the door for Arkansas to keep dancing.

Prediction: Arkansas advances

No. 11 Syracuse vs. No. 2 Houston (Sat., 9:55 p.m. ET)

Can you believe people actually argued that Jim Boeheim and Syracuse didn’t belong in the NCAA Tournament? Of course, they were going to get a double-digit seed and make a run deep into the Big Dance. That’s just what the Orange do in this day and age.

And it’s not stopping at the Sweet 16 either. With some injuries slowing Houston down right now, the Cougars have looked quite vulnerable to this point. More importantly, their hot-and-cold offense is going to struggle against the infamous 2-3 zone defense for Syracuse, pushing the Boeheims, Jim and Buddy, to the Elite Eight.

Prediction: Syracuse advances

No. 5 Creighton vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (Sun., 2:10 p.m. ET)

On one hand, you would think that this could be an absolute slugfest between two elite college hoops offenses. Then, of course, you consider the fact that Creighton has oftentimes looked like a budget version of Gonzaga, the matchup becomes just a bit less enticing.

The Bulldogs have a style that resembles death by 1,000 cuts. They can beat you offensively in so many ways and from every direction that you can’t possibly prepare for them. Throw in the fact that they’re an underrated defensive squad and it becomes apparent that the Bluejays aren’t going to be the ones to stop tarnish the undefeated season.

Prediction: Gonzaga advances

No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 1 Michigan (Sun., 5:00 p.m. ET)

Playing in March Madness without Isaiah Livers, Michigan has actually delivered more than some expected to this point. The Wolverines have turned up the heat on defense and have seen playmakers step up. But that was also against teams that don’t boast the length, athleticism and overall talent Florida State brings to the table.

Though Eli Brooks has come up big for Juwan Howard’s team, this team is prone to offensive lapses with Livers out. That will never be more evident than against the Seminoles as they’ll create mayhem defensively and win, even if it’s not aesthetically pleasing as a whole.

Prediction: Florida State advances

No. 11 UCLA vs. No. 2 Alabama (Sun., 7:15 p.m. ET)

For as impressive as what UCLA has done to this point is, it should be noted that they have had a favorable draw since topping Michigan State in the First Four. BYU was simply over-seeded while Abilene Christian was simply overmatched, even with the Bruins not having Chris Smith in the lineup.

In any case, that changes when they come up against Alabama. Though not on the 1-line, the Crimson Tide are legitimate title contenders with their ability to light it up from 3-point range and then defend/create turnovers on the opposite end. Spoiler alert, but I’d be shocked if Bama doesn’t end up the Final Four and gives Gonzaga the best game of anyone all year.

Prediction: Alabama advances

No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 6 USC (Sun., 9:45 p.m. ET)

People are quite high on Oregon given their experience and the talent of guys like Chris Duarte, especially after they trounced Luka Garza and Iowa. But the fact of the matter is that the Ducks are a bad matchup for the Hawkeyes with being able to attack a bad defensive team. USC, on the other hand, is a much more difficult matchup.

USC and Oregon played once in the regular season and the Trojans flat out dominated, even with Evan Mobley having a mundane game. With the freshman center rising to the moment and his teammates stepping up more than they have all year, this feels like Andy Enfield’s team’s game to lose.

Prediction: USC advances

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