It sure looks like Matt Carpenter is about to lose his job with the Cardinals

With two seasons of struggles continuing into this season, Matt Carpenter is not long for his spot in the St. Louis Cardinals’ lineup.

From his first full season in the big leagues in 2012 through a 36-home run season in 2018, Matt Carpenter was an above average offensive player with multi-position utility. He struggled in 2019, then reached a real low in the shortened 2020 campaign (.186 average, .640 OPS in 50 games).

The Cardinals trade for Nolan Arenado moved Carpenter off his starting spot at third base, and into a utility role if he didn’t beat out Tommy Edman for the starting job at second base in spring training. No matter what, it’s safe to say the Cardinals wouldn’t mind scrubbing Carpenter’s $18.5 million for this year from their books.

Carpenter has started 10 games at second base so far this season, and one at first base. In nine of those 11 games he has been removed defensively. He’s also not hitting, with a .077 batting average (3-for-39), one home run, four RBI and a .367 OPS over 47 plate appearances.

Matt Carpenter is in line to ride the pine

Via Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, here’s what Cardinals president John Mozeliak said about Carpenter.

"With the outfield coming back, you could see limited at-bats (for Carpenter) moving forward,” Mozeliak said. “I don’t think that’s a line that we have to cross today. Over the next seven to 14 days, it is going to have a way of playing itself out. You are trying to give someone an opportunity to get going. But as players become healthy and get back active on this roster, those at-bats are going to be more difficult to find if production isn’t there.”"

Tyler O’Neill (groin) was activated off the IL on Friday, and Harrison Bader (forearm) is eyeing a mid-May return. So Tommy Edman will soon be freed up to play second base more. Mozeliak also seemed to call out Carpenter’s hitting approach, and an apparent unwillingness to make adjustments to defensive shifts against him.

"Look, you can only build a line of reasoning for so long,” Mozeliak said. “At some point in this game you are truly measured on what you do. There is that old saying. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. But if something isn’t working, maybe you need to try to make some adjustments. I do appreciate the fact he is making hard contact. I do appreciate the fact he’s trying to remain positive in this. But, to some level, you’ve got to see production out of that. And so, hopefully his fortunes change, because it would help our lineup, and help our team. But, you know, at some point it’s going to be hard to be doing the same thing over and over again.”"

Carpenter does seem to be falling victim to some bad luck. He’s in the 96th percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate (according to Statcast), with a barrel rate in the top one percent. But he’s also swinging and missing a lot (36.6 percent whiff rate), continuing an upward trend there over the last couple seasons.

In any case, any sentimentality within the Cardinals’ organization for Carpenter is fading if it’s not gone already. He’ll need to start producing, or he’ll become an expensive (and little-used) bench bat for manager Mike Shildt.