2021 NFL Draft’s biggest subplots, Chiefs get Orlando Brown and more
The 2021 NFL Draft is on Thursday, and here’s 10 subplots to watch closely as we look towards the first round.
We made it.
The 2021 NFL Draft is only three days away. It seems all the big trades are done, including a massive one which dropped Friday afternoon (much more on that below). The order is set, and the chaotic nature of the draft is soon to take over.
Before it does, here are the 10 storylines which will dominate Thursday night in Cleveland:
– The draft really begins with the 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers pick third-overall, but we already know how the first two selections will play out. General manager John Lynch is taking a quarterback, but will it be Justin Fields, Trey Lance or Mac Jones? Anybody outside the building who says they know for certain is a liar. If a quarterback is left who a team in the late single-digits or early-teens likes, the Atlanta Falcons will have a hot phone.
– Broncos are a team to watch for an early trade
Speaking of a hot phone, the Denver Broncos. First-time general manager George Paton needs an upgrade over Drew Lock at quarterback. If Denver likes the quarterback situation at No. 4, it’s a worthwhile to send over a second-round choice to facilitate a deal. The Broncos have a good roster, and it could be a playoff-caliber one with a better player under center.
– The Steelers and Saints could be primed for big moves
There are always a few teams willing to make a big move. In 2017, the Kansas City Chiefs traded up 17 spots from No. 27 to land Patrick Mahomes. Could we see a similar jump on Thursday? If we do, the Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints both make sense. Each needs a quarterback going forward while the rest of the roster is solid, especially in New Orleans. Watch for Saints general manager Mickey Loomis. Few are more aggressive.
– Cincinnati’s choice at No. 5 will shape the first round
Which way do the Cincinnati Bengals go? If they take Ja’Marr Chase, do we see the Miami Dolphins take Jaylen Waddle to pair with Alabama teammate Tua Tagovailoa, or is there a trade to move back? If Cincinnati goes with an offensive tackle in Penei Sewell or Rashawn Slater, we might see an earlier run on the position. It’s a pivot pick early on.
– DeVonta Smith’s weight will be a major talking point on Thursday
Every NFL fan knows Devonta Smith weighs 166 pounds. If he starts to slip, we’re going to hear constantly about it with every passing minute. The New York Giants are a team to watch here, according to FanSided’s Matt Lombardo. If he gets by Big Blue at No. 11, the slide could be on.
– There’s value to be had on the perimeter on Day 2
Talking to league sources over the past few months, everyone can agree on receivers and corners being plentiful in the top 100 prospects of this draft. If your team needs one, don’t fret if they pass in the first round. There’s a good chance at least a dozen receivers and corners will go in the second round.
– The SEC is going to be incredibly well-represented in the first round
What else is new? Alabama alone could have a half-dozen players in the first 32 picks. After that, there’s Florida’s Kadarius Toney and Kyle Pitts, Ole Miss’ Elijah Moore, LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase, Georgia’s Azeez Ojulari, South Carolina’s Jaycee Horn and Kentucky linebacker Jamin Davis. We won’t quite reach half of the first round, but it’s damn close.
– What decisions do the Patriots make this week?
The New England Patriots have options. They could wake up this morning, call the Niners and get the price tag on Jimmy Garoppolo. They could also wait until Thursday night and start gauging what it would take to land Jones, Lance or Fields. Maybe Bill Belichick and Co. decide to stay put and simply add another piece on the roster, but the Patriots have to figure out quarterback first and foremost.
– Who are the first pieces the Jets and Jags add to their franchise quarterbacks?
The Jacksonville Jaguars are taking Trevor Lawrence. The New York Jets are taking Zach Wilson. Then the intriguing part for both teams: who is the second choice for each in the first round? Do the Jaguars get an elite receiver for Lawrence? Do the Jets nab a tackle to play opposite of Mekhi Becton? Fascinating to see which way the redesigned teams go.
– Always, always know there’s a huge surprise coming
This is true of every draft. There’s going to be a stunner. One year, it’s James Carpenter. Another year, it’s Darrius Heyward-Bey. We’re going to get some shockers that blow up the mocks.
Power rankings
Top 10 quarterbacks selected No. 1 overall in NFL history
1. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts
2. John Elway, Denver Broncos
3. Troy Aikman, Dallas Cowboys
4. Terry Bradshaw, Pittsburgh Steelers
5. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
6. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
7. Eli Manning, New York Giants
8. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
9. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals
10. Michael Vick, Atlanta Falcons
Quotable
"“At 7, we do have a cluster of players that we’re comfortable with picking, but at the same time we will be very prepared and also willing to move in either direction. So, we’re still open in those regards, but there are a cluster of players that we would be comfortable with.”"
– Lions general manager Brad Holmes on what the team can do at No. 7 overall
For Detroit, moving back would be ideal — as you’ll read below. The Lions are a rebuilding team in need of a bevy of starters. If Holmes decides to stay put, Detroit could take a left tackle or even add a counterpart to Jeff Okudah in the secondary with either Patrick Surtain II or Jaycee Horn.
Podcast
Random stat
From 1979-81, San Diego Chargers quarterback Dan Fouts broke the single-season passing yardage mark in each season.
Info learned this week
1. Chiefs make major move to solidify spot as favorites
Two weeks ago, the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens began talking. On Friday, a blockbuster was executed.
After reviewing medical evaluations for the top 150 draft prospects and plugging in the final pro day numbers, Kansas City decided to call Baltimore about a swap for star left tackle Orlando Brown, per source.
Then, on Friday, a breakthrough. The Chiefs traded for the two-time Pro Bowler, sending over first, third and fourth-round draft picks this year along with a fifth-rounder in 2022. Kansas City is also receiving a second-round choice in 2021 and a sixth-round selection in ’22.
Brown, 24, has starred as both a left and right tackle in Baltimore but will play the left side for the Chiefs. At 6-foot-8 and 355 pounds, the former Oklahoma star is a massive upgrade — literally — for an offensive line which already added All-Pro guard Joe Thuney and veteran Kyle Long.
FanSided also learned Brown will play out the final year of his rookie pact before extension talks are had. For the Chiefs, they believe the price paid, while significant, was the far better option than trying to land maybe the fifth or sixth-best tackle at No. 31 overall.
After watching Mahomes get beat up in the Super Bowl, Kansas City general manager Brett Veach has been quite aggressive in making sure the same fate isn’t repeated next February.
For Baltimore, it’s a bit of a head scratcher. The Ravens are trying to catch the Chiefs in the AFC and helped them improve, all while weakening their own roster. Even with the hoard of picks coming back, it’s tough to argue Baltimore will be better than the 2020 version.
2. Raiders are showing understanding of their plight
The Las Vegas Raiders probably won’t take a quarterback early, but they aren’t ruling it out.
According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, general manager Mike Mayock is doing due diligence on the early-round quarterbacks. No, this doesn’t mean Derek Carr is being moved, but the Raiders clearly understand their situation. Carr is good, but good enough to beat Mahomes or Justin Herbert for a division title? Not likely.
Carr’s contract runs through ’22, but releasing/trading him after this year results in no dead money. If Las Vegas doesn’t play well or Carr regresses from his career-best form of the previous two years, Mayock and head coach Jon Gruden would have ample reason to move on.
While the defense remains Mayock’s top priority, the long-term situation at quarterback is becoming an ever-growing issue for the Raiders as the division moves away from them.
3. Buffalo should be looking for edge help early and often
If there’s one team not involved with the Brown trade which is deeply impacted, it’s the Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo lost twice to Kansas City last year. In both losses, it notched a single sack. The Bills did little to rectify the issue in free agency and now have a chance to get young legs off the edge in the draft. General manager Brandon Beane would be wise to do so.
Two weeks ago, I did a deep dive on how the Chiefs lose with Patrick Mahomes under center. Unsurprisingly, the answer is almost always pressure without blitzing. Buffalo struggled mightily to generate said pressure in 2020, and if the Bills ignore the need this weekend, being the AFC’s bridesmaid for a second straight year becomes an increasing likelihood.
Before the Chiefs added Brown, Buffalo needed to add juice off the corner. Now? It’s an even bigger issue. At No. 29 overall, the Bills should be targeting names like Jaelan Phillips (Miami), Jayson Oweh (Penn State) and maybe, with a good bit of luck, Azeez Ojulari.
It’s the only way, barring injuries to Kansas City, the Bills can close the widening gap.
4. Lions rumors of trading back should be in concrete
If there’s any team looking to trade back, the Detroit Lions should be it.
This offseason, the Lions traded away Matthew Stafford while bringing in a bridge quarterback in Jared Goff. They also gave first-year head coach Dan Campbell a six-year deal with new ownership preaching stability. Additionally, general manager Brad Holmes allowed receivers Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones to leave in free agency for what will be compensatory picks.
Detroit might have the worst roster in football, a fact Holmes certainly understands. He’s also around for the long haul, which means he has time to go about his rebuild the right way.
At No. 7 overall, the Lions won’t land a player who immediately changes their fortunes. However, should teams start calling with offers including a bushel of top-100 picks, Holmes should take the best deal. Detroit needs a litany of players to compete in the coming years. Hoard the lottery tickets.
Without question, the Falcons are the most interesting team in terms of an early trade-down, but the Lions are second in said line.
5. Mock drafts are finally, mercifully going away for the next nine months
There’s nothing to really add here. Just makes me smile knowing that in three days, the endless parade of nonsense mocks comes to an end.
Two cents
The notion of best player available? Almost always a lie.
After the draft, there will be 32 press conferences. Prepare yourself for every team to say it took the best player remaining on its board, regardless of position. Funny how a roster loaded with good receivers almost never takes on, but seemingly always fills the weakness at, let’s say, defensive tackle.
And truthfully? That’s the right move provided it’s not an enormous reach.
Taking best player available makes sense for a rebuilding club, but most teams are looking to build up areas of concern. It’s asinine to believe a general manager is going to pass on the fifth-best player remaining on his board to select the top guy who would be buried on the depth chart.
Draft season is always lying season … even in the immediate days afterwards.
Inside the league
Expect a flurry of trades in the late-second and early-third round.
Talking to some around the league, there’s a belief in many corners this draft class steeply falls off around No. 75. Since that’s the middle of the third round, we should see teams trying to trade up from the back half of the third into the early portions of the round and perhaps even into the late second.
Conversely, while teams will be calling to trade up on Day 2, the action should be to move down in Day 1. After the quarterbacks and a few elite talents such as tight end Kyle Pitts and receiver Ja’Marr Chase, there isn’t a ton of difference in the minds of some between the 12th and 25th pick.
If a team can trade back early and pick up another top-75 pick, that’s ideal usage of the board to acquire additional, meaningful draft capital.
History lesson
No team had a better start to their franchise … or a worse one.
The New Orleans Saints enjoyed an incredible burst onto the NFL scene when John Gilliam ran back the opening kickoff against the Los Angeles Rams in their inaugural game for a 94-yard touchdown. Then, incredibly, the Saints didn’t have a winning season for 20 years.
As a footnote, Gilliam enjoyed a terrific career after his first two years with the Saints. He eventually played in a pair of Super Bowls with the Minnesota Vikings, earning Pro Bowl berths in each of his four seasons with the club.
Parting shot
Steve McMichael is battling ALS. It’s incredibly sad how impacted by grief and tragedy the ’85 Bears have been.
McMichael’s diagnosis is the latest in a series of awful situations befalling said group. Quarterback Jim McMahon has struggled mightily since retiring with debilitating head pain, while safety Dave Duerson took his own life after dealing with CTE. Legendary running back Walter Payton also died at 45 years old from liver disease. The pain goes on and on.
For McMichael, he’s often the forgotten man of perhaps the greatest defense mankind has ever witnessed. The defensive tackle notched 95 sacks in his 15 seasons, despite the stat not becoming official until his third campaign. He was a two-time First-Team All-Pro but was nationally overshadowed by Hall of Famers in Dan Hampton, Mike Singletary and Richard Dent.
No team was tougher than the ’85 Bears. It’s horrific watching so many of them suffer in their post playing days.