2021 NFL mock draft: Broncos trade up for Justin Fields, Bears trade for Jimmy Garoppolo

Trevor Lawrence will be a Jacksonville Jaguar and Zach Wilson will be a New York Jet on Thursday night, but beyond that, anything goes in the 2021 NFL Draft.

There is a very real possibility that as many as four quarterbacks are chosen in the first five picks and potentially five in the top-10, but there is as much uncertainty throughout this first round as can be remembered in recent history.

Given that so many players opted out, and so few are eligible for this class, thanks to the NCAA’s eligibility rules following COVID-19 wreaking havoc on the 2020 season, there have already been several teams who have made trades to accumulate assets in next year’s draft, where many hope to find more certainty.

So, how will the first-round play out?

This is my best guess, after league conversations with coaches, scouts, and executives who will make the decisions in war rooms across the country during the 2020 NFL Draft.

Here is my 2021 NFL Mock Draft for the first round

No surprise here. Urban Meyer lands one of the cleanest quarterback prospects since Andrew Luck’s arrival in 2012, and maybe earlier. Meyer and Lawrence have as good a chance as anyone to ever revitalize the Jaguars.

Wilson’s ability to improvise, manipulate the pocket, and make every throw on the route tree, even while on the move, will come in handy in the Big Apple. The BYU standout inherits a better offense, and a more stable situation than Sam Darnold ever had in New York.

Multiple reports have emerged that the debate in Silicon Valley is between Lance and Alabama’s Mac Jones. John Lynch is betting, after trading four picks that the quarterback picked here bucks the trend of passers chosen in the top-10, with only three quarterbacks chosen in the top-10 since 2005 ever earning First-Team All-Pro honors.

The first non-quarterback off the board is viewed by some as the premier talent in this class. As I previously reported, Falcons owner Arthur Blank is all-in on Pitts, having a vivid memory of Tony Gonzalez’s impact on the Falcons. It’s easy to see why.

An AFC East personnel executive recently told me he believes you can make an argument “Pitts plays his position better than Trevor Lawrence plays his, he has Hall of Fame potential and is a game-changer at a position that keeps growing in importance.”

Cincinnati could go offensive tackle here, but reuniting Chase with franchise quarterback and fellow LSU Tiger Joe Burrow makes a lot of sense here, as the Bengals round out one of the NFL’s most explosive wide receiving corps along with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.

An NFC offensive coach picking in the top-10 recently told me he believes Chase has the chance to be “truly special,” and it’s easy to see why, after he caught 84 passes for 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns in 2019 prior to opting out. Multiple NFL insiders tell me they believe Chase has Hall of Fame potential.

By trading back from No. 3 overall, the Dolphins signaled they are all-in on Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. At least for now. One year after taking Tagovailoa in the top-10, general manager Chris Grier can’t justify drafting his replacement, but must determine if he has the potential to develop into one of the game’s elite passers.

The best way to do that is to drop arguably the premier field-stretcher at wide receiver into a vertical passing game that already includes receivers Devante Parker, Will Fuller, and tight end Mike Gesicki.

TRADE!

The Lions’ selection at No. 7 is a prime target for a team trying to move up for a quarterback, and the Broncos see an opportunity to add a potential franchise passer to drop into an offense with wide receivers Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler, and tight end Noah Fant.

Randy Mueller, the 2000 NFL Executive of The Year told me during his appearance on The Matt Lombardo Show podcast that he believes Fields “might have the highest ceiling of anyone in this Draft.” Fields also has the downfield arm strength and accuracy to thrive in Pat Shurmur’s offense.

Mac Jones’ slide ends here, as the Panthers add long-term optionality at quarterback, even after trading a second-round pick for Sam Darnold earlier this offseason. Nothing else matters in Carolina until they find an elite franchise quarterback, and Matt Rhule now has the opportunity to stage a training camp competition for the starting job this summer.

The Lions lost Kenny Golladay via free agency to the NY Giants, and can’t pass up the opportunity to replace the veteran with one of the more dominant field-stretchers in this or any recent NFL Draft class. Smith averaged 15.9 yards per reception as a senior and caught 23 touchdowns to win the Heisman Trophy last season. After trading for Jared Goff, the Lions get him a legitimate weapon to push the offense vertically.

The premier cornerback in this class fills the most pressing need on the Cowboys’ roster. According to Sports Info Solutions, Surtain held opposing quarterbacks to a meager 40 percent completion percentage last season, and a career-best 5.2 yards per target. A potential perennial All-Pro, Surtain is a worthy counter-punch to the wide receivers in the NFC East.

Parsons is the defensive player in this draft who easily has the highest ceiling as well as the highest floor. It is my belief that Dave Gettleman would prefer to land a playmaker to add to Daniel Jones’ arsenal in a pivotal year in the quarterback’s development and the organization’s evaluation of him, but with the top receivers off the board, his next preference is the versatile Parsons.

Parsons’ athleticism makes him an ideal complement inside alongside Blake Martinez. But, Parsons also has the ability to dominate in coverage from sideline-to-sideline and is a former five-star recruit as a defensive end, so given coordinator Patrick Graham’s propensity for playing multiple, this Swiss-Army knife of a defender could also give the Giants a much-needed pass-rush boost.

Horn fills a pressing need in an Eagles’ secondary that is staring down the barrel at two games per season each against Amari Cooper and Cee Dee Lamb, Kenny Golladay, and Terry McLaurin. Horn is an immediate plug-and-play starter for a defense desperate for playmakers. An AFC scouting director recently told me Horn “Is a legitimate stud in the making.”

I’m not sure Sewell lasts this long, but if he slips, he won’t make it past the Chargers. One year after Los Angeles landed one of the premier young quarterbacks in the game, Justin Herbert, the Chargers add the most dominant offensive tackle in this class to protect him.

In terms of consistency, it doesn’t get much better than Sewell, who only allowed two sacks in a pair of seasons in Eugene with just eight total pressures. It might be a competition between Burrow and Herbert for the biggest winner of this draft.

Phillips has been generating plenty of buzz in recent days, but as Mueller told me on The Matt Lombardo Show podcast, “the public is just now catching up to the evaluation,” on Miami’s burgeoning pass-rusher.

Having previously signed Dalvin Tomlinson to bolster the defensive line, the Vikings add Phillips, who is a legitimate difference-maker, who produced nine sacks and 29 hurries last season en-route to an 86.6 overall grade from Pro Football Focus.

Ideally, Bill Belichick would prefer to come out of this draft with a long-term solution at quarterback, so don’t be surprised if this pick gets moved for Jimmy Garoppolo in a trade with the San Francisco 49ers, or the Patriots move up into the top-10 to catch one of the sliding passers.

But, if all else fails, New England adds a dominant cornerback thanks to his ideal length, aggressiveness, and closing speed in coverage.

For all of the Cardinals’ firepower on offense, protecting franchise quarterback Kyler Murray remains a going concern. If Slater somehow falls out of the top-15 picks, he won’t slide any further as Steve Keim and Kliff Kingsbury add a franchise left tackle to protect Murray’s blind-side.

Slater only allowed six sacks in three seasons as a starter at Northwestern, and produced a blown-pass block percentage of 1.3 percent, according to Sports Info Solutions. He just might be critical to uncapping the Cardinals’ potential on offense.

If any team needs to add a cornerback, it’s the Raiders, who have to face Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert four times every year in perpetuity. With ideal size, at 6-foot-2 and 190 pounds, Newsome has all the trappings of a lockdown NFL cornerback and plays some of his best football in man-coverage.

After recording 23 pass breakups during his collegiate career, Newsome is the ideal back-end complement to the Raiders’ signing of Yannick Ngakoue upfront this offseason.

Rousseau, viewed by many as one of the top pass-rushers in a lackluster class overall at the position, won’t need to change zip codes. Rousseau opted out last season, but it’s hard to forget that he produced 16 sacks and 24 pressures in his most recent game action.

In a division with Josh Allen and now Zach Wilson, the Dolphins’ defense has improved steadily in recent years but levels up significantly with the addition of a potentially dominant edge presence here.

The Washington Football Team has a glaring need at left tackle, which could limit the upside of the offense with Ryan Fitzpatrick behind center of a talented group of skill players that includes receivers Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel.

Darrisaw is a behemoth, at 6-foot-4 and 314 pounds with a strong anchor and plenty of explosiveness to be a road-grader in the running game. Washington could easily place him at either tackle spot as the foundation for a full-fledged multi-year rebuild along the trenches.

TRADE!

The Chicago Bears take the plunge, and trade a first-round pick for Jimmy Garoppolo, in hopes of finally stabilizing the most important position in sports. Garoppolo’s veteran presence has the chance to bring out the best of Allen Robinson and pushes the Bears closer to competing for the NFC North crown in a make-or-break year for head coach Matt Nagy and GM general manager Ryan Pace.

The flip side of this deal is the 49ers filling a hole along the interior of the offensive line with the premier guard in this class, to help keep Trey Lance upright. This could be the type of deal that helps both franchise take major steps forward.

The Colts have built out one of the more dominant offensive lines in the NFL, landed a quarterback they hope recaptures the ability to be a franchise quarterback in Carson Wentz, and have plenty of playmakers on offense. Now, it’s time to build out the defense.

Jayson Oweh is among this class’s most popular defensive prospects inside the Colts’ personnel department, despite failing to produce a sack last season. Indianapolis drops a freakish athlete, who ran a 4.39 in the 40-yard dash, who has flashed plenty of upside on film, despite only playing football for the past five seasons, into the front-seven.

Tennessee lost Jadeveon Clowney in free agency and could stand to address their pass rush during the draft. A twitchy and explosive presence off the edge, Paye has the chance to be a three-down player.

During his four seasons at Michigan, Sports Info Solutions points out that Paye produced true pressure on 14 percent of his snaps while producing 11.5 sacks and 80 total pressures. That’s the kind of counter-punch needed to combat Wentz and Lawrence in the AFC South, not to mention potentially slowing Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, or Lamar Jackson on the road to a possible Super Bowl berth.

The edge rusher run continues. Jets general manager Joe Douglas is intent on bolstering a pass rush that produced only 31 sacks last season, and resides in a division with Allen, Tagovailoa, and whoever winds up in New England.

Ojulari surged to the finish line of his collegiate career, producing nine sacks and 28 additional pressures while garnering a 90 overall grade from Pro Football Focus. He’s the kind of difference-maker the Jets need to continue to collect on defense.

After losing James Connor to the Arizona Cardinals in free agency, the Steelers return to power football with their first-round pick, dropping Harris into an offense with high-flying receivers Chase Claypool, Dionte Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

Harris is a wrecking ball, who averaged 5.8 yards per carry and scored 26 touchdowns for the Crimson Tide as a senior. He’s the kind of weapon that could alleviate some pressure off Ben Roethlisberger. As one rival AFC personnel director tells me “I love Najee, he’s a three-down running back, who is talented as a receiver and is a very instinctive runner.”

This isn’t a particularly deep safety class, but Moehrig is the best of the bunch, has the potential to be a plug-and-play starter and fill a glaring deficiency in the Jaguars’ secondary.

A strong cover-safety with plus-ball-skills, he Moehrig has the versatility to play single-high safety or be a playmaker creeping into the box either rushing the passer or in the run-game. Jacksonville needs impact players, and Moehrig fits that description.

Watching Asante Samuel Jr., it’s easy to reminisce about his namesake, a borderline Hall of Famer at the same position for the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles, thanks in part to the Florida State alum’s elite ball-skills.

Samuel Jr. has the chance to play immediately on the back-end of a Browns’ defense that’s built on a dominant pass-rush presence and could be a long-term replacement for Denzel Ward or Greedy Williams if either departs via free agency.

Last season, opposing quarterbacks had a meager 55.6 passer rating when targeting him, and he intercepted three passes while allowing a career-low one touchdown.

The Baltimore Ravens need to eventually address adding playmakers at receiver if they’re ever going to facilitate quarterback Lamar Jackson taking the next step in his development as a passer. Bateman has plenty of speed, he’s also sneakily versatile because he can contribute from the slot in addition to on the outside.

Minnesota quarterbacks had a 64 percent completion percentage when targeting him last season, as Bateman caught 36-of-56 targets for 472 yards and a pair of touchdowns, one season removed from a 1,219-yard and 11 touchdown 2019 campaign.

It would be a Bourbon Street miracle if Davis slides this far. If he does, Sean Payton and Micky Loomis won’t think twice about adding one of the premier linebackers in this class. Davis has bountiful athleticism, speed, and can be a three-down leader of a defense. Don’t be surprised if his play speed allows New Orleans to line him up in the slot at times in coverage, either.

At some point, the Packers have to take a wide receiver in the first round or risk a Russell Wilson-esque mutiny from Aaron Rodgers. Isn’t Kadarius Toney, the typical Packers wide receiver?

At 5-foot-11 and 189 pounds, Toney can line up in the backfield or in the slot, but his speed gives him the chance to be an after-the-catch playmaker. Matt LaFleur and Rodgers might be the ideal landing spot for his skill-set to be maximized.

The Bills, and every other AFC contender for that matter, learned a harsh lesson in the AFC Championship Game; You aren’t getting past Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs without a dominant pass-rush. Ed Oliver is elite, but the Bills barely were able to breathe on Mahomes in the postseason.

Weaver is a potential three-down player, can play defensive end or stand up as a rusher, and could be a special player after producing 17.5 sacks at Pittsburg while generating pressure on 18% of his snaps. Buffalo’s offense has the chance to be dynamic in 2021, and Weaver could elevate the defense significantly.

The pick the Ravens acquired in a trade that sent the Kansas City Chiefs offensive tackle Orlando Brown … Is used on an offensive tackle to replace Brown.

For the Ravens, the upside of drafting Eichenberg, one of the steadiest tackles in this year’s class, is to have him on a rookie contract and for five years of control, rather than just one more season with Brown. Last season, Eichenberg was a stalwart in pass-protection, having not allowed a sack and just five pressures.

Eichenberg thrives in a run-based zone-read offense, which could make him an ideal fit in front of Lamar Jackson, anchoring the Ravens’ offensive line.

General manager Jason Licht and head coach Bruce Arians have brilliantly managed the salary cap this offseason, returning the Buccaneers’ starting lineup for their Super Bowl title defense, truly allowing Tampa to go with the best player available or add a luxury pick.

Moore would be that luxury, especially with Antonio Brown sitting in free agency, and Chris Godwin set to play on the franchise tag. Moore is a speedster who has the potential to thrive in the slot and could benefit from Godwin, Evans, and Gronkowski making plays downfield to give Brady a weapon capable of exploiting open space underneath.

Matt Lombardo is the site expert for GMenHQ and writes Between The Hash Marks each Wednesday for FanSided. Follow Matt on Twitter: @MattLombardoNFL