The Whiteboard: Warriors are the NBA’s perfect play-in team

The Whiteboard is The Step Back’s daily basketball newsletter, covering the NBA, WNBA and more. Subscribe here to get it delivered to you via email each morning.

I’ll be perfectly honest: I’m not a fan of the idea of play-in games for the upcoming 2021 NBA Playoffs.

Last year, in a bizarro bubble experience where 22 teams went to Orlando and the season was suddenly cut short by the coronavirus pandemic, it made sense to give every squad that got invited an incentive to actually try. Just ask the Phoenix Suns — who missed the play-in scenario but went 8-0 in the bubble and then used that momentum to trade for Chris Paul — how beneficial that was.

But in a 72-game season that isn’t unexpectedly going on hiatus for four months, it makes far less sense to give middle-of-the-pack teams a chance at the postseason. In a league where 16 of 30 teams already make the playoffs each year, it feels borderline unfair to have the 7- and 8-seed in each conference determined by 1-2 games, especially when most of the play-in squads are so far out of reach from the normal field of eight.

The 10th-place Washington Wizards, for example, are currently 3.0 games back from the Charlotte Hornets as the 8-seed. Maybe they close that distance to make it more respectable before the season ends, maybe they don’t. But either way, if these results hold and they win two straight games in mid-May, suddenly their season-long deficit is erased just like that. Even in a shortened season, it feels weird that the 7- and 8-seeds could lose two simple games and suddenly the 72 that came before it are rendered irrelevant.

But even though I’m not a fan of the fairness or general concept of the play-in games, I am a fan of watching exciting basketball with playoff ramifications. And there’s no question that Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors occupying one of those play-in spots represents the epitome of that exhilarating experience the NBA is gunning for here.

Don’t let Tuesday night’s 30-point blowout loss to the Dallas Mavericks fool you. The Dubs may be the league’s most combustible team, but that’s what’d make them such an exciting play-in squad: Their margin for error is razor-thin, but the upside for a memorable one- or two-game thrill ride is immense.

For those unfamiliar with this year’s play-in format, the top six teams in each conference are automatically in and are seeded where they end the regular season. The 7-seed and the 8-seed will play each other, with the winner of that matchup officially claiming the 7-seed. The loser of the 7-8 matchup will then face the winner of a game between the ninth-place team and the 10th-place team, with the winner of that second game taking over the 8-seed.

So thinking of where the 10th-place Warriors fit in, take a look at Curry’s teammates and their numbers this year. Even with the two-time MVP playing at an MVP-caliber level yet again this year, there’s virtually no way he and a supporting cast of Kelly Oubre Jr., Andrew Wiggins, this version of Draymond Green and a bunch of G League players are knocking off the Utah Jazz, Phoenix Suns or LA Clippers four times in a seven-game series. Even with Utah’s well-known playoff shortcomings, Phoenix’s lack of postseason experience for its youngsters and LA’s problems with “Pandemic P,” Golden State wouldn’t be expected to give those teams more than 4-5 games, six games tops.

But in a play-in scenario against similarly flawed teams? Where they get the chance to play the underdog and shock the world, even if it’s an incredibly short-lived one or two games? Where Steph Curry has the power to singlehandedly sway the outcome of a winner-take-all format, rather than be forced to pace himself over the course of a seven-game series where the better team wins nine times out of 10? That’s tremendous content for diehard and casual NBA fans alike.

A look at the four current play-in teams — the Warriors, San Antonio Spurs, Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers — shows a field bursting with superstar talent that will make for some spectacular clashes, especially within the high-octane confines of do-or-die games. Curry, DeMar DeRozan, Ja Morant, Damian Lillard … there are some awesome backcourt battles to be had here.

The Dubs are at the very bottom of that play-in barrel, but they’ve won eight of their last 12 games, and they’re only one game behind the Spurs and Grizzlies and only 2.5 games behind the Blazers. They have very little margin for error, and some of their worst losses show it: Golden State has lost games by 53, 39, 31, 30, 26, 26, 26, 25, 22, 22 and 21 points this season.

But in spite of their ho-hum 31-31 record, they’re 30-24 overall when Curry plays, and Tuesday’s blowout loss still only dropped them to 11-13 against teams above .500 when their superstar is available. That suggests they can at least be competitive in a high-pressure environment like a play-in game, as does their top-10 Net Rating in wins this season.

The Warriors are highly combustible; they’re either going to give you one hell of a show courtesy of the most unstoppable individual force in basketball, or they’re going to get wiped off the court.

That bodes well for this year’s play-in games out West: Either Stephen Curry is going to dazzle us with an unforgettable performance or two to make these games worth watching, or they’re going to get blown out by a better team. And if that’s the case, at least it’ll only be one unwatchable rout to worry about, instead of the four that’ll come with a playoff appearance … and maybe that’d be enough for the league to deem the play-in games a failure and scrap them moving forward.

Either way, it’s a win-win.

#OtherContent

For more info on the play-in tournament, and which teams are projected to land in each spot, ESPN has you covered.

The harsh realities of life in the NBA on a 10-day contract are fascinating, as The Ringer’s Paolo Uggetti explores.