2021 NBA awards: Final picks for MVP, Rookie of the Year and every other award

MVP

5. Chris Paul, Phoenix Suns
4. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
2. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
1. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

Contrary to what you’ve heard from prominent talking heads, this isn’t complicated. Nikola Jokic is the MVP, it isn’t close, and no, he wouldn’t be the worst MVP we’ve had in decades. Anyone spouting off that kind of uninformed ilk doesn’t actually watch or understand NBA basketball, plain and simple.

If anything, Jokic just submitted one of the best offensive seasons — and certainly the best passing season — of any big man in league history. Averaging 26.4 points, 10.8 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game, the Joker even conjured up some MIP buzz as he bumped up his scoring average by nearly seven points from last year. He ranked 13th in the league in scoring, seventh in assists and 10th in rebounds, but if that wasn’t well-rounded enough for you, he also finished first in (deep breath) Player Efficiency Rating, win shares, offensive win shares, Box Plus/Minus and Value Over Replacement Player.

The fact that he has improved as a defender, accounted for eight assists a night as a seven-footer and led the Denver Nuggets to a top-three seed in the loaded Western Conference is remarkable, and it becomes doubly so when one realizes he’s done all that despite the Nuggets’ rash of injuries and absences. Michael Porter Jr. (11 missed games), Will Barton (16), Paul Millsap (16), Jamal Murray (24) and Monte Morris (25) have all missed considerable time. The key to overcoming it was not only his superb play, but his availability — a category where he washes the other main MVP contenders away.

Even if the Nuggets are sent packing in the first round, it’ll be because they’re missing their second-best player and are trying to reincorporate injured pieces at a difficult time in a brutal conference. This isn’t like the year Dirk Nowitzki received his MVP trophy in embarrassing fashion after his 1-seeded Mavs were upset by the “We Believe” Warriors … and even if it was, this is regular-season recognition, not a playoff forecast.

The Jokic vs. Joel Embiid conversation would also hold more weight if the Philadelphia 76ers star hadn’t missed 21 games, but when all the advanced stats already favor the Joker, that disparity matters. The Process has been dominant this season! Averaging 28.5 points, 10.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.4 blocks and 1.0 steals per game is nothing to sneer at. It’s just not enough to make up the discrepancy of games missed, especially when one takes efficiency into account.

Embiid has been excellent, shooting 51.3 percent from the floor, 37.7 percent from long range and 85.9 percent from the foul line — career highs across the board. Yet Jokic has been even better, going 56.6 percent from the floor, 38.8 percent from 3 and 86.8 percent from the stripe. Embiid is the better defender, but the gap isn’t nearly as large as people think it is, and team success is hardly an overwhelming argument either; while the Sixers are the 1-seed in the East, they only finished two games ahead of the Nuggets in the standings.

Moving past the MVP debate that isn’t really a debate, Giannis Antetokounmpo shouldn’t finish any lower than third. If anyone could put up 28.1 points, 11.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.2 blocks and 1.2 steals per game on 56.9 percent shooting for a title contender and have it fly under the radar, it’s the Greek Freak. Part of that is voter fatigue after he won it the last two years; part of it is how good Jokic and Embiid have been; and part of it is voter remorse after the MVP’s Milwaukee Bucks flamed out in two consecutive postseasons. This is a regular-season award, but Giannis has officially reached the “prove you can do it in the playoffs too” stage of his career. Still, he’s a top-three candidate.

That leaves two remaining spots for a couple of otherworldly seasons, most notably from Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard and Luka Doncic. Curry has engineered one of the best years of his career, so no matter where the Golden State Warriors are in the standings, he’s snagging a spot. Averaging a league-leading 32.0 points, 5.8 assists and 5.5 rebounds per game and nearly posting 50-40-90 splits despite being his team’s only offensive weapon, constantly getting double-teamed and attempting a career-high 12.7 3-pointers per game — in his age-33 season, no less! — is patently absurd:

Doncic and Lillard both have better statistical cases for MVP over our fifth selection here. So do Kawhi Leonard, Devin Booker and Julius Randle, if we’re being honest. Rudy Gobert is in a similar category as Chris Paul with his MVP case resting on advanced stats, intangible impact that’s hard to measure and being the most important player on one of the NBA’s top-two teams.

But we’re giving the nod to Paul for fifth on the MVP ballot — even at the risk of falling into the aggravating pitfall of underselling the other big contributors to the Phoenix Suns’ success this season, as so many “CP3 for MVP” cases tend to do.

Paul’s raw numbers — 16.4 points, 8.9 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game on .497/.395/.923 shooting splits — are good, especially for a guy who just turned 36 years old. They’re also not the best of his career, or even on his own team when compared to Book. His impact on Phoenix and how he was able to accelerate this young team’s trajectory to title-contending team cannot be overstated, however. The change in culture was already in place last year — something Paul has publicly acknowledged throughout the season as a major reason why he wanted to be traded to the Suns in the first place — but it doesn’t reach these unexpected heights without his leadership. He’s also been more available than anyone on this list outside of Jokic, which matters in a season like this.

It’s not as cut and dry as “Chris Paul plus 34-win Suns team equals title contender,” because such an equation would leave out other key variables: Devin Booker’s excellence finally getting its chance to shine with a real roster around him; big leaps from Mikal Bridges, Deandre Ayton and Cameron Johnson; the lunch-pail work ethic Monty Williams instilled in the entire organization; James Jones rounding out the roster with smart, hard-working players; and guys like Dario Saric, Jae Crowder, Cameron Payne and Torrey Craig meshing to create one of the NBA’s deepest teams.

All of that makes fifth as high as Chris Paul deserves to go on a list like this, and I wouldn’t blame anyone for favoring Dame or Luka over him. The narrative is certainly on CP3’s side, but the numbers point to the importance of Lillard to the Portland Trail Blazers (especially in the clutch, where he’s been unbelievably good) and Doncic to the Dallas Mavericks. Lillard (28.8 points, 7.5 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game on .451/.391/.928 shooting splits) and Doncic (27.7 points, 8.6 assists and 8.0 rebounds per game on .479/.350/.730 splits) certainly blow CP3’s numbers out of the water.

Both carried their teams for lengthy stretches without key players, and even if they ultimately fell outside of the top four — removing them from the real MVP conversation — they’re still entirely worthy of that fifth spot. Kawhi Leonard missed too many games for my preference here, but at this point on the ballot, it’s simply a matter of what you choose to put more stock in.

Finally, we should mention LeBron James, James Harden and Kevin Durant, all of whom were legitimate candidates until they missed way too much time.