The Whiteboard: Damian Lillard makes history, but it’s still not enough

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LeBron James is saying all the right things after the Lakers’ blowout loss in Game 5, but if Anthony Davis isn’t on the floor and some reasonable facsimile of his fully healthy self, it probably doesn’t matter. It’s hard to bet against LeBron but without Davis the quality of this supporting cast is well below any of the Cavaliers or Heat teams he helped reach the Finals, and for all his ageless projection, LeBron isn’t the same player either.

The absence of Davis and the struggles of L.A.’s outside shooters certainly cramps spacing, but LeBron has looked unusually human when attacking the basket. In last year’s postseason run, he made 67.9 percent of his shots off drives and he was at 58.7 percent in his last Finals’ run with the Cavs. This season, he’s at 50.0 percent with nearly as many turnovers (6) as assists (8). He’s compensating in other ways, hitting pull-up 3s at a strong rate but every drop in effectiveness in one of his tools just ratchets up the level of difficulty for a team that already has its back against the wall.

Another monster Damian Lillard game, another tough loss for the Trail Blazers

It’s become an unfortunately familiar pattern for Trail Blazers’ fans. Damian Lillard posts a historic, epic performance but it’s just not enough to carry his team to victory. Lillard put up 55 points and 10 assists in Game 5 against the Nuggets, shooting 17-of-24 from the field and 12-of-17 from beyond the arc, setting the NBA playoff record for most 3-pointers in a game along the way. And the Blazers lost by seven points in double-overtime.

A 55-point double-double doesn’t have quite the same shine as it did a few years ago, thanks in part to some absurd stat lines from James Harden, Russell Westbrook and others, but it’s worth focusing on the efficiency. Lillard scored 55 points on 24 shots. That’s an average of more than two points per shot attempt — his true shooting percentage for the game was 96.8 percent.

Here’s another way of contextualizing how incredible his performance was and how soul-crushing it was to have it come in a loss. By Game Score, a composite single-game metric that includes both positive (points, assists, etc.) and negative (fouls, turnovers, missed shots) box score stats, this was the greatest playoff performance since the 1983-84 season. Lillard’s Game 5 hit a Game Score of 55.9, Jordan’s 63-point masterpiece at the Garden comes in at 47.2. Since the 1983-84 season, there have been 54 playoff performances with a Game Score of 40 or higher. Lillard’s is just the 12th that came in a loss.

And, again, the rough outlines of this scenario aren’t new. The second-best playoff game of Lillard’s career, by Game Score, was his 42-point performance in Game 2 of this Denver series, also a loss. He now has 12 career playoff games with a Game Score of 25 or higher and the Trail Blazers have won just five of them. His seven playoff losses with a Game Score of 25 or higher are the 16th-most in NBA history and the seventh-most among players who played in the last two decades.

Damian Lillard is a storied postseason performer and has arguably never been better than he has been in this series. And the Trail Blazers are once again, staring down elimination.

Can the Knicks, Wizards or Grizzlies avoid elimination in Game 5?

All three teams face 3-1 deficits and could see their seasons end tonight. The Jazz have rebounded strongly after a Game 1 loss to Memphis and the return of Donovan Mitchell seems to have them firing on all cylinders again. They were the best team in the league during the regular season, they’re playing Game 5 at home and they have every incentive to try and end things quickly. The projection model at 538 gives them just a 14 percent chance of losing Game 5 which, honestly, feels like it might be too high.

The Wizards have an opportunity with Joel Embiid doubtful for Game 5 but they’ll still be big underdogs. They’ve won the Embid-less minutes from the 76ers thus far in the series, outscoring Philadelphia by an average of 8.3 points per 100 possessions in the 97 minutes Embiid has been off the court. But Philadelphia had plenty of opportunities to play without him during the regular season and this could be an opportunity for Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons to really flex control of the mismatches they create. Even with Embid’s status incorporated, 538’s model gives the Wizards just a 15 percent chance of taking Game 5.

On paper, the closest Game 5 and the series most likely to be extended is the Knicks and the Hawks. Atlanta has dominated so far, outscoring New York by an average of 6.3 points per 100 possessions. But the Knicks have also been playing farther off their regular-season baseline than nearly any other team in the playoff and some simple regression to the mean could completely change the complexion of the series. As Michael Pina pointed out at SI, the Knicks haven’t really been able to exploit Trae Young’s abysmal defense, an opportunity that lingers. After a breakout campaign, Julius Randle is shooting under 40 percent from the field and under 30 percent on 3-pointers. And the Knicks, as a team, are shooting just 33.3 percent on 3-pointers classified as open or wide-open (no defender within four feet), after hitting 40.3 percent of those shots during the regular season.

The Hawks still look ready to advance but the Knicks at least have a shot to make it interesting.

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This is your umpteenth reminder that data on things like step-back jumpers, which are manually tracked for play-by-play logs, is extremely unreliable. If it’s not obvious and it’s not optical tracking, take it with a big grain of salt.

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You can find our good friend Matt Ellentuck over at DIME as well. Check out his breakdown of how Marina Mabrey is lifting the Dallas Wings towards the playoffs.

New NBA Mock Draft at The Ringer, with something fun for every single team.