The Whiteboard: Who will win each 2-2 NBA Playoffs series?

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The conference semifinals of the 2021 NBA Playoffs are heating up in a hurry. While the Phoenix Suns quickly swept the Denver Nuggets in four games to reach their first conference finals since 2010, the other three series are all knotted at 2-2.

In the West, the LA Clippers have won two straight games after falling into an 0-2 hole against the top-seeded Utah Jazz. In the East, the Milwaukee Bucks have done the exact same thing against the banged-up Brooklyn Nets, while the Philadelphia 76ers and Atlanta Hawks have grappled for an advantage, splitting the two games at each venue.

With such drastic momentum shifts over the course of a seven-game series, which team has the advantage in these three remaining best-of-three series? We’ll take a look at each one to figure it out.

Can Kevin Durant steal momentum back from Bucks?

James Harden hasn’t played since the opening minute of this second-round series due to a hamstring injury, and despite making “good progress” to return, he’ll be out for Game 5. Kyrie Irving, who sprained his right ankle in the Game 4 loss that tied up the series, is out for Game 5 too.

The only thing seemingly standing in the way of “Bucks in 6” is now Kevin Durant, Brooklyn’s lone remaining superstar.

In the first two games of this series (both Nets wins), KD put up 30.5 points per game on 24-of-43 shooting (55.8 percent). In the two games since (both Nets losses), he’s still put up a hearty 29.5 points, 11.5 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game, but they’ve come on 20-of-53 shooting (37.7 percent), including 4-of-16 shooting from 3-point range (25 percent).

P.J. Tucker’s physicality has made an impact, as has Milwaukee’s ability to hone its defensive strategy on stopping Irving and Durant, and then just Durant. In a pivotal Game 5 at home, KD has to find a way to overcome the odds against a Bucks squad that found its footing after back-to-back rock fights at home.

Everyone in Brooklyn needs to step up, especially Joe Harris and his 3-point stroke that disappeared in Wisconsin, but ultimately, the Nets will only go as far as Kevin Durant can improbably carry them. Otherwise, Milwaukee could be Eastern Conference Finals-bound very soon.

Mike Conley’s injury looms large as Clippers turn the tide

Like Nets-Bucks, what started off as a convincing first two wins for the home team quickly spiraled into a dead-even series, with momentum favoring the healthier side. Missing Mike Conley isn’t quite the same as missing both James Harden and Kyrie Irving, but there’s no question the Jazz looked totally out of sorts once the series shifted back to LA, losing both games at the Staples Center by a combined 40 points.

Considering they only managed to win their two home games by a combined 9 points, it’s pretty clear how important home-court advantage is for this team, and how the prolonged absence of Conley is taking its toll.

Donovan Mitchell’s 37 points in Game 4 were commendable considering the circumstances, but even that kind of performance didn’t distract from the stretches where he didn’t look 100 percent. The Jazz have been keeping pace with LA from 3-point range, but they’ve been getting creamed from inside the arc. Even worse, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George may have found their foothold in this matchup after they became the fifth duo since 1977 to drop 30-plus points in back-to-back playoff games.

If that’s the case again for Game 5 in Utah, it may not even matter whether Conley returns in this series. But the Jazz looked discombobulated by hero ball in LA, taking bad shots that fed into their defense as the Clippers appeared more and more comfortable. Utah could desperately use the injection of a two-way player like Conley to keep the offense running smoothly and keep the perimeter defense tight. With the Jazz’s backcourt banged up and LA finally looking like the real deal again, Game 5 is a virtual must-win for Utah.

76ers shouldn’t be too worried … yet

Joel Embiid, who finished second in MVP voting this year, was God-awful in Game 4 after a strong first half. He ended his night with a playoff-low 17 points on an atrocious 4-of-20 shooting, and his rough patch in the third and fourth quarters opened the door wide for the Hawks’ comeback.

The Sixers still only lost that game by three points, and they had a four-point lead with 2:44 to go. They were this close to building a 3-1 lead on the road despite their best player putting up a complete dud.

Assuming this was just a poor shooting night and not a byproduct of the torn meniscus he’s been playing — and dominating — on, the 76ers will be fine as the series shifts back to Philly. That’s not to take anything away from Atlanta, of course; that comeback effort proved their two-way resilience and that they won’t be pushed around by anyone.

But Philadelphia had an 18-point first-half lead for a reason, and it doesn’t take much in-depth analysis to narrow this down: As long as Embiid is healthy and the Sixers play their game at home, they’re the better team that will win Game 5 and probably the series.

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For more on the Nets being down to their last superstar and whether they can beat the Bucks, The Ringer’s Rob Mahoney has you covered.