4.U.S. Open 2021 prediction: Jon Rahm finishes outside of the top 40
As mentioned with Rahm, he was last seen being told of his COVID-positive test after the 54th hole of the Memorial while he sported a resounding six-stroke lead. He’s been flushing the ball with his driver and irons but his putter finally seems to be finding form. So it shouldn’t be surprising that he now heads to Torrey Pines, a place where he’s had tremendous success, as the betting favorite at +1000 to win outright.
For me personally, this is probably the boldest prediction I have, though. All told, there is as good of a chance that Rahm wins his first major as there is that he’s not in the top 40. Yet, I’m willing to go there.
While Rahm’s experience with COVID-19 doesn’t appear to have taken a big toll and he was likely practicing, there are two things that worry me. First, there has to be some rust from not having what his normal schedule would’ve been after the Memorial. Secondly, the mental toll of having to withdraw and now the pressure of being the favorite has to be factored in. Thus, the call is for him to disappoint this week.
3. U.S. Open 2021 prediction: Six of the top nine favorites miss the cut
We’ve already talked about three of the betting favorites with Rahm, Koepka and DeChambeau having the first, fifth and third-best odds to win at Torrey Pines, respectively. And both predictions are that these golfers will have bad weeks.
But that’s actually my feeling for the majority of the favorites. In order for the nine players with the best odds, we have Rahm, Dustin Johnson (+1400), DeChambeau (+1600), Xander Schauffele (+1800), Koepka (+1800), Jordan Spieth (+2000), Rory McIlroy (+2000), Collin Morikawa (+2000), Justin Thomas (+2200).
Outside of Rahm, Spieth and Morikawa, all of whom have reasons to be dubious about their possible performance this week, that’s a group that collectively has not been at top form. And on a stage like the U.S. Open and with a test like this course, that will show up as a strong majority of them will miss the cut.