Why UNC quarterback Sam Howell can mirror Baker Mayfield’s ascent ahead of 2022 NFL Draft

North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Sam Howell has posted elite numbers throughout his career. He has the chance to match Baker Mayfield’s impressive accomplishments and draft rise in 2021.

One of the most surprising uprises over the last two seasons has been the emergence of the North Carolina Tar Heels. Head coach Mack Brown dealt with a rough ending to his Texas tenure but has quickly made an impact in his second stint with the Tar Heels. At the center of the program’s improvement is quarterback Sam Howell.

A four-star prospect who quickly earned the starting job after arriving on campus as a freshman, Howell immediately produced like a veteran. It’s rare to see underclassmen produce a 64.4 percent completion rate with 7,227 yards, 68 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in his first 25 games.

Throughout this off-season, we’re looking at each of the top quarterbacks for the 2022 NFL Draft. Howell is absolutely in the running for a first-round passer considering his early accomplishments and considering his Heisman Trophy odds. I dove into his film and charted his passes to see if his raw numbers matched the more detailed numbers I accumulate, and we’ll break it all down in this preview.

Howell’s catchable ball rate confirmed his status as one of the more accurate passers to all levels in the country. A polished pocket passer who reads defenses with ease, Howell has a striking resemblance both statistically and physically to current Cleveland Browns quarterback and former Oklahoma Sooners’ star Baker Mayfield. Mayfield won the 2017 Heisman Trophy before hearing his name called with the first overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.

Sam Howell can be the 2022 NFL Draft version of Baker Mayfield

Mayfield famously jumped from a mid-round pick after his junior season after taking his game to new heights as a senior. He completed over 70 percent of passes for 4,627 yards, 43 touchdowns and six touchdowns in 404 attempts in 2017. Few collegiate passers have been as decorated as Mayfield.

Howell is on pace to match Mayfield’s historic career thanks to his hot start. Pro Football Focus had Howell as the top-returning wins above average producer over other impressive talents. And his short, intermediate, and deep accuracy have him on pace to finish his career as one of the most on-point passers I’ve charted in 10 years of accumulated data.

Despite all of the positives, we’ve rarely heard the Tar Heel mentioned in the race for 2022’s No. 1 pick by the media. While some are hoping J.T. Daniels or Kedon Slovis figure out their own limitations, Howell is a polished product. His ability to attack all three levels of the field and avoid typical mistakes projects well as an early NFL starter.

His stocky 6-foot-1, 225-pound frame is squatty like Mayfield’s and his mobility only meets a minimum that keeps him from being a pocket statue at the next level.

The NFL has advanced significantly in accepting non-traditional passers since Mayfield’s emergence, helping Howell’s ability to climb draft boards. The parallels between the two are significant considering the importance of confidence, accuracy, and an aggressive on-field mindset.

Where Howell doesn’t get enough credit is he’s advanced at reading coverages post-snap and reacting quickly. Though he doesn’t have the fastest release or strongest natural arm strength, his ability to get the ball to his target on time is almost flawless thanks to his mental processing. Fairly limited passers like Mac Jones and Joe Burrow replicated this formula and ended up being first-round picks.

Howell is more like Burrow than the other passers in terms of explosive passing plays. Both Jones and Mayfield struggled to push the ball downfield at times, relying on elite playmakers instead of creating opportunities for teammates with excellent ball placement. Though Burrow struggled in his rookie season in the NFL, he was exquisite at LSU at leading his targets upfield.

Howell threw a catchable pass on almost 60 percent of his deep passes beyond 20 yards. And oftentimes his receiver had to make little to no adjustment. It’s as if Howell was handing the ball off to his target.

There’s a lot of good in place with Howell already. He projects as someone who at the very least can hold his own at an average level in the NFL. His physical set of tools has some questionable moments though.

We’ve seen some of the more NFL-ready talents fall in the draft even if they were better producers than their peers. Jones being drafted after Trey Lance in the 2021 class is a good example. There’s no question Jones is the better pocket passer today but Lance has the tools to be a much better playmaker.

Howell is better than Jones as a prospect thanks to his ability to hit tight windows and lead his receivers upfield consistently. But he has a windup that limits his release speed yet is necessary to generate velocity. The clip above shows how long his process is.

The margin for error in the NFL is almost nothing. A fast release can make up for slower processing and even slightly off accuracy, but a slow release can ruin the other two. Howell may need to tweak his mechanics but can’t sacrifice the velocity he has and needs on short and intermediate passes.

He has to reset his feet when on the move to get square to hit his target quickly. We’ve seen Rattler, Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray hit acrobatic passes without being set thanks to a Godly skill set, and Howell is clearly lacking that ability. He’s not gifted in the same manner and teams are preferring the talents who may be lesser in ideal situations for those who can thrive on the run.

It’s a tricky balance. Swinging for the fences with a more physically gifted but less polished passer can go either way. Most quarterbacks fail to drastically improve in the NFL but teams continue to go with upside over the surer-thing.

Howell should be considered a real threat for the No. 1 pick. Though Rattler is a better playmaker and can make some amazing plays, Howell is consistently great right now. He must answer questions about his ability to quickly get rid of the ball with the requisite velocity to reach that possibility, though.

He’ll never compare favorably to the most athletic prospects. He doesn’t have a cannon on his arm, but he is the most accurate passer in the class by a solid margin to all three levels. And his mentality compliments his skill set in a way that projects well to the NFL.

It’s possible Rattler’s athletic upside fails to take a leap in development in 2021 despite Lincoln Riley’s experience producing No. 1 picks. If he does, Howell will rise. It shouldn’t shock anyone to see Howell land as a top-three pick like Mayfield and Burrow were if he can make an adjustment to his motion.

Otherwise, Howell may be viewed more like Jones was. The mid-first-round pick had clear physical limitations but is trusted by his staff due to his ball placement and mental processing. Many analysts and fans don’t want to draft an average quarterback in the first round but most are, making Howell a solid first-round prospect entering 2021.

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