The Whiteboard: Paul George and Reggie Jackson left it all out there

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One-half of the NBA Finals matchup is set, with the Suns finally finishing off the Clippers. Here’s to the players who made that a series and wishing a swift recovery to the stars on the other side of the bracket.

Can the Milwaukee Bucks still get it done without Giannis Antetokounmpo?

Obviously, this depends a lot on the health of Trae Young on the other side of the court but the Bucks should feel reasonably good about their odds of beating the Hawks twice without Giannis if necessary. The Bucks were 6-5 in the 11 games Giannis missed during the regular season, although none of those six wins came against playoff teams.

A slightly more meaningful indicator is that the Bucks have played 382 minutes across the regular season and playoffs with Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday on the floor, and without Giannis or Donte DiVincenzo (who is also out for the entire postseason). They’ve outscored opponents by an average of 2.5 points per 100 possessions in those minutes with an astronomical offensive efficiency of 121.3 points per 100 possessions.

Giannis is officially listed as day-to-day and Trae Young is a game-time decision, which certainly implies both players could be available. If both players are out, the Bucks likely have an edge. If both players are on the court and reasonably productive, the Bucks likely have an edge. But in both cases, the margins look much slimmer than they did a few days ago.

Pour one out for Paul George

The Clippers’ loss will probably ensure that the ‘Pandemic P’ narrative about Paul George’s postseason chops continues and, to be fair, he’s certainly had some playoff stinkers. But he was absolutely incredible for the Clippers after Kawhi Leonard went down and it’s worth remembering that his postseason experience didn’t start when he was traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder for the 2017-18 season.

George played in 65 playoff games for the Indiana Pacers, including two appearances in the Eastern Conference Finals. Roll that in with his Thunder and Clippers’ experience and he has playoff averages of 21.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.5 steals per game across postseason appearances, on a 56.2 true shooting percentage. Over the course of his career, he’s been responsible for 97.8 postseason Wins Over Replacement Player, using Basketball-Reference’s Box Plus-Minus. That’s the 13th-most among active players and more than the career marks of Carmelo Anthony, Ben Wallace, Horace Grant, Kyrie Irving and Kevin McHale. The dude has played A LOT of playoff games and he’s been incredibly productive.

Hopefully, George can absorb some optimism from watching Chris Paul, another insanely productive playoff player who is finally getting enough of the lucky breaks every player needs to get to the Finals.

What in the world has happened to Cam Payne and Reggie Jackson?

Cam Payne’s resurgence has had a slightly longer runway, he’s been a key contributor for the Suns all season long. But both Payne and Jackson were teetering on the edge of falling out of the league completely, an idea that seems silly now looking at their postseason runs. Jackson, who averaged 17.8 points per game and shot 40.8 percent from beyond the arc for the Clippers produced 2.2 Wins Over Replacement Player in this postseason. In just 16 games, he put together more positive production than he did during the entire regular season and in six of the full regular seasons of his 10-year career.

Payne, meanwhile, has produced 1.1 Wins Over Replacement Player in 16 postseason games, more than he did in the first five seasons of his NBA career, combined. Here are The Whiteboard, we’re all fans of players reaching their full potential, which means we’ve suddenly become very big fans of Cam Payne and Reggie Jackson.

#OtherContent

Chris Paul waited 16 years for his first NBA Finals appearance. In Game 6 of the 2021 Western Conference Finals, the Phoenix Suns star seized his moment.

This week on The Long Two, a look at how Monty Williams and the Phoenix Suns won the chess match in the Western Conference Finals, and some positive signs from Cam Reddish as the depth of the Atlanta Hawks is tested.

We can end the debate. Statistically, we’ve never seen an NBA postseason as impacted as this one by injuries to high-profile stars.

I want to take a moment to call out my colleague, Gerald Bourguet, who, like Chris Paul, is getting his first crack at an NBA Finals. If you’re a subscriber to The Whiteboard you already know about his incredible work but it’s worth restating. He’s a tremendous colleague, writer and person and he’s one of the absolute best on the Suns’ beat. As the Finals approach, make sure to give him a follow on Twitter and check him out on the Valley of the Suns podcast.