What Joc Pederson trade means for Anthony Rizzo and Cubs core

The recent Cubs trade involving Joc Pederson could signal what’s to come for Anthony Rizzo and other core pieces of the roster.

The first domino in the impending Cubs fire sale has fallen, and it likely won’t be the last.

Chicago sent outfielder Joc Pederson to the Braves in exchange for 23-year old first baseman Bryce Ball on Thursday.

Who is Bryce Ball?

Ball was drafted out of the 24th round in the 2019 MLB Amateur Draft out of Dallas Baptist. As Atlanta’s No.12 prospect, Ball is slashing .205/.354/.396 with six home runs and 30 RBIs in 212 plate appearances at High-A ball this season.

Here’s what MLB Pipeline has to say about Ball:

"It would be hard to find anyone who doesn’t think Ball’s power is going to play. His raw pop is at the top of the charts and the left-handed hitter has a solid approach, giving him a better chance to tap into it more consistently. He came out of that approach a bit when he reached full-season ball during his debut, but generally kept his strikeout rate down while drawing a fair share of walks."

He’s likely a ways away from being an everyday big-league player, but it’s possible the Cubs acquired Ball in preparation to part ways with longtime first baseman Anthony Rizzo.

Rizzo is in the midst of a one-year, $16.5 million deal as he gets set to hit the free-agent market in the offseason. Extension talks have stalled, and given the Cubs (44-46) current position of eight games behind first place and 7.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, it’s more than likely the team trades Rizzo and other core players to get value while they can.

MLB rumors: Did Cubs acquire an Anthony Rizzo replacement?

Should the Cubs choose to hang onto their impending free agents (Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant), and neither of the three resigns this offseason, the team would receive a compensation draft pick.

Rizzo, 31, has been on the decline in terms of offensive production over the past few seasons while dealing with some nagging back injuries. The three-time All-Star averaged four-straight 30-plus home-run seasons from 2014-2017 and four-straight 100-plus RBI seasons from 2015-2018.

In 319 plate appearances this season, Rizzo is slashing .247/.342/.429 with 10 homers and 33 RBIs. Going back to last summer he owns just a .236 batting average compared to his .283 BA from 2014-2019.

At this point in his career, it’ll be difficult for the Cubs to give Rizzo the money he’s looking for with his offense heading on a downwards trend. The Athletic (subscription required), reported Rizzo turned down a Cubs offer of five-years, $70 million this past March.

It’s not out of the question the Chicago would keep one or more of their core pieces around for the long-term in hopes of a retool rather than rebuild, but if they Cubs can get the biggest bang for their buck in hopes of adding young talent if they find the right suitors.

With the lack of All-Star type numbers from Rizzo, it’s likely Chicago will have to kick in some cash in hopes of landing a highly-regarded prospect from other teams. It was reported the Cubs will not pay any remaining portion of Pederson’s $4.5 million salary for 2021 in the deal for Ball.

It might not be the storybook ending many hoped for, but a fresh start could be what’s best for the Cubs and Rizzo going forward.