How ‘The Big Short’ could fuel the NBA’s next great rebuild

NBA teams have learned to bet against others’ success, giving themselves potential lottery tickets for their rebuilds.

In 2013, the Boston Celtics were at a crossroads.

After finishing barely over .500, they lost to the New York Knicks in the first round of the playoffs. They had already lost Ray Allen to the Miami Heat in free agency the previous offseason, while Kevin Garnett (37) and Paul Pierce (35) weren’t getting any younger.

The Celtics thus made the painful decision to trade Garnett, Pierce and Jason Terry to the Brooklyn Nets for a package that included three unprotected first-round picks and a pick swap. When the Nets imploded sooner than expected, the Celtics wound up getting the No. 3 pick from them in 2016 (Jaylen Brown) and the No. 1 pick in 2017 (Markelle Fultz), which they’d trade to the Philadelphia 76ers for No. 3 (Jayson Tatum) and a future first-rounder.

The Celtics’ pillaging of the Nets’ draft capital thus set the template for superstar trades, which a few other teams have since emulated in recent years. While none may pan out as fortuitously as the Pierce/Garnett trade did for Boston, the next great rebuild of the 2020s may come largely at another team’s expense.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are shorting the NBA opposition in their rebuild

When the Thunder traded Paul George to the Los Angeles Clippers in 2019, they got back the Clippers’ 2022, 2024 and 2026 fully unprotected first-round picks along with the rights to swap first-rounders in 2023 and 2025. They also received top-four-protected 2024 and 2026 first-round picks from the Houston Rockets in the Chris Paul/Russell Westbrook swap, and they’ve acquired a smattering of future firsts from other teams as well.

The Rockets protected themselves against the worst-case scenario — the highest pick they can convey in either year is No. 5 — but the Clippers afforded themselves no such luxury. Even though they re-signed Kawhi Leonard to a four-year, $176.3 million contract in free agency, he’s likely to miss most if not all of the 2021-22 season after suffering a partial ACL tear during the playoffs. With both Leonard and George already on the wrong side of 30, the Thunder could wind up getting a massive windfall from the Clippers just as their own rebuild kicks into high gear.

Beyond that haul of future first-rounders, Oklahoma City Thunder also received 2018 No. 11 overall pick Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the George trade. He averaged 23.7 points on 50.8 percent shooting, 5.9 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 2.0 triples per game for the Thunder this past season, and he should give them a foundational piece to build around over the next half-decade.

Because the Thunder have so many future first-rounders, they’re free to take calculated gambles. During the 2020 draft, they traded up for uber-raw big man Aleksej Pokusevski, knowing that his tantalizingly high ceiling justified his risk of busting. They added to their young core in 2021 with Josh Giddey (No. 6), Tre Mann (No. 18) and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (No. 32), the latter of whom they traded the Nos. 34 and 36 picks to acquire.

The Thunder aren’t going to bat 1.000 in the draft. By the time they’re back in playoff contention, only a handful of their current players may still be on the roster. But considering how well they’ve been playing the margins in the early stages of their rebuild, the mountain of draft picks they’ve acquired over the past few years could help them sustain their forthcoming return to relevance.

No team can match the Thunder’s haul of future first-rounders, but the New Orleans Pelicans come closest. They’re owed the Los Angeles Lakers’ 2024 unprotected first-rounder, which they can defer to 2025 if so desired, along with a top-10-protected 2022 pick and a 2023-first-round swap courtesy of the Anthony Davis trade. They also have unprotected first-rounders from the Milwaukee Bucks in 2025 and 2027 along with first-round swap rights in 2024 and 2026 from the Jrue Holiday trade.

The Lakers’ decision to go all-in on a core of LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook should delight the Pelicans. Between James’ age (he turns 37 in December), Davis’ lengthy injury history and Westbrook’s lack of recent playoff success, that 2024 (or 2025) first-round pick could wind up being immensely valuable. Although the Lakers cobbled together a respectable supporting cast in free agency, salary-cap restrictions will make it difficult for them to keep it together beyond this year.

The Bucks appear far less likely to implode after winning this year’s championship. They have Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez all signed at least through the 2022-23 season, and Antetokounmpo can’t become a free agent until 2025 at the earliest. Still, a half-decade is an eternity in the NBA, which makes it impossible to project how those mid-2020s picks will play out.

Although the Rockets owe their protected 2024 and 2026 first-rounders to the Thunder, they’re poised to capitalize on a potential Nets collapse. When they sent James Harden to Brooklyn in mid-January, they received the Nets’ fully unprotected 2022, 2024 and 2026 first-rounders along with first-round swap rights in 2021, 2023, 2025 and 2027.

Kevin Durant signed a four-year, $198 million extension with the Nets this offseason, but both Harden ($47.4 million) and Kyrie Irving ($36.7 million) have player options for the 2022-23 season that they could decline to become unrestricted free agents. Although Durant recently hinted that all three are likely to stay in Brooklyn beyond next season, the Rockets can only hope this Big Three collapses as quickly as the KG/Pierce-era Nets did.

Betting against superstar-laden teams might seem pointless since their upcoming draft picks aren’t likely to fall in the high lottery. Then again, the 2019-20 Golden State Warriors demonstrated how one year’s worth of misfortune can pay dividends in the draft.

If the Clippers, Lakers, Bucks or Nets fall apart in the coming years, the Thunder, Pelicans and Rockets are poised to substantially benefit. Those additional draft picks could be the rebuilding rocket fuel that they need to vault themselves into championship contention, much like Tatum and Brown have been for the Celtics.