Heisman watch 2021: Who is this year’s DeVonta Smith or Joe Burrow?

Spencer Rattler is the Heisman Trophy favorite, but who could be this year’s Joe Burrow or DeVonta Smith and surprise?

At least investment advice comes with a disclaimer. Trying to handicap the Heisman Trophy race has proven just as volatile, minus all the legal mumbo jumbo.

Last season, Alabama’s DeVonta Smith became the first wide receiver to win the award in 29 years, becoming just the fourth non-quarterback to hoist the Heisman since 2000. That made him the eighth winner over the past 12 seasons who began the season as an extreme long shot and the second straight after LSU’s Joe Burrow came out of nowhere to win in 2019.

It could get just as tough to read, as this will be the first time since the 2003 season that there wasn’t a returning player who had finished in the top five of voting the previous winter. But there are defined Heisman candidates, and plenty of surprise contenders lurking.

Let’s run through each conference’s top challenger, along with the long shot that could rise up.

ACC Heisman favorite: D.J. Uiagalelei, Clemson QB

Talk about trial by fire. One of the biggest games of the entire season, and the sport’s poster boy out due to COVID-19 protocols. The then-freshman Uiagalelei impressed despite a Clemson loss at South Bend last November, and impressed again a week later vs. Boston College, totaling 781 yards, six touchdowns and just under a 70 percent completion percentage. Across a full season, that’s a pace of 4,868 yards and in line with the 4,228 yards and 40 scores, the last 10 Heisman-winning passers have averaged. The potential for that kind of season-long production is there with a deep, scary receiving corps. Also playing in his favor, no one has an opening-weekend stage riper for planting their flag in this race than Uiagalelei, who takes on No. 5 Georgia in Charlotte and could go into cruise control without another ranked team on the Tigers’ schedule.

ACC Heisman long shot: McKenzie Milton, Florida State QB

North Carolina’s Sam Howell figures to be a factor, but let’s focus on a known commodity with a lot of questions surrounding him. Milton was eighth in the 2017 voting and sixth a year later, as he and UCF tried to break down the door of the College Football Playoff. But he hasn’t played since the 2018 regular-season finale after suffering a gruesome injury that made keeping his right leg and walking again, let alone playing football, as the primary focuses. After three seasons in Orlando in which he piled up 8,683 yards and 92 total touchdowns, Milton is now at Florida State, where he’s part of a position battle with Jordan Travis. It could be a long season for the Seminoles, who open against No. 9 Notre Dame and are on the road against No. 3 Clemson, No. 10 North Carolina and No. 13 Florida, but they do return 10 starters on offense, and if they can make some noise, it’s going to be hard to find a better storyline than Milton’s.

Big 12 Heisman favorite: Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma QB

The numbers will be there, and we know this position at this school can deliver the hardware. The odds are ever in his favor going into his season. Rattler is the betting favorite to win the Heisman a year after throwing for 3,031 yards and 28 touchdowns and posting a 172.6 rating that was the best of any Power Five conference freshman. Question his decision-making when he threw five picks over the first four games, a stretch that derailed the Sooners’ national title hopes. But during the Sooners’ eight-game winning streak to end the season, Rattler piled up 18 scores to three interceptions with 65 percent completion rate. That steady production in this explosive offense, and a schedule that builds to a Nov. 20 showdown with No. 7 Iowa State figure to keep the field chasing the Oklahoma sophomore.

Big 12 Heisman long shot: Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State QB

Texas’ Bijan Robinson and the Iowa State duo of Breece Hall and Brock Purdy are just behind Rattler in the Big 12 pecking order but don’t sleep on Oklahoma State’s Spencer Sanders. While he’s had his inconsistencies, offsetting his 30 touchdowns with 19 interceptions over 21 career games, Sanders capped his 2020 season with his finest performance, tossing four touchdowns with a pick against Miami in the Cheez-It Bowl. It can’t be underscored enough that for the first time in the redshirt junior’s four years in Stillwater, he has a returning offensive coordinator and quarterback coach for the first time.

Big Ten Heisman favorite: C.J. Stroud, Ohio State QB

In a conference that returns Indiana’s Michael Penix Jr. and Wisconsin’s Graham Mertz, the Vegas favorite hasn’t even thrown a pass in a college game. Stroud steps into the void created by Justin Fields, and while he did see time in three games as a true freshman — he saw the field against Rutgers, Michigan State and Clemson in the CFP semifinal — his stats were limited to a 48-yard rushing score against the Spartans. Wide receiver Chris Olave calls Stroud’s arm talent “off the charts,” and with Olave and Garrett Wilson at his disposal, there may not be a better situation for a first-time starter as Stroud will have one of the nation’s most dynamic pass-receiving tandems at his disposal.

Big Ten Heisman long shot: Chris Olave, Ohio State WR

Speaking of Olave, a season after Smith broke through for wide receivers, could the Buckeyes’ All-American follow suit? Stroud will have the spotlight on him piloting an offense that should have its way through a schedule that includes two Power Five passing defenses that ranked in the top 25 nationally (Penn State and Maryland at 24th and 25th, respectively), but you could argue his inexperience could push the attention in Columbus elsewhere. The Ohio State rushing attack will be deep, but the explosiveness of Olave, who had 50 catches for 729 yards and seven scores in seven games last season, will be hard to ignore. Smith spurned the NFL to return for his senior year and star with a first-time starter at quarterback for Alabama. Olave is following a similar script, but will voters get behind a pass-catcher for the second straight year?

Pac-12 Heisman favorite: Kedon Slovis, USC QB

Slovis’ first season at USC had him primed for stardom. He threw for over 3,500 yards and 30 touchdowns with nine picks, and while 2020 was still effective on paper — he led the Pac-12 in yards (1,921) and touchdowns (17) — he threw just two fewer interceptions while playing half as many games. But one thing you know Slovis is going to get his chances. No one averaged more pass attempts than Slovis’ 44 in 2020, and in coordinator Graham Harrell’s offense, the Trojans are going to throw, throw and throw some more. The Pac-12 portion of the schedule includes seven teams that ranked 69th or worse nationally in total defense last year, including five that were 91st or lower.

Pac-12 Heisman long shot: Anthony Brown, Oregon QB

The Boston College transfer didn’t see the field much in his first season at Oregon. He came in late to the Pac-12 Championship Game to throw two touchdown passes and got his first significant playing time in the Fiesta Bowl against Iowa State, generating two scores on the ground in the Ducks’ loss. He beat out Ty Thompson for the starting role and as evident with those rushing touchdowns against the Cyclones and 463 career yards touting the rock and reading into coach Mario Cristobal’s comments that running ability was key in his winning the position battle. How far he can go in this race could be determined by Week 2, when the Ducks head to Columbus to take on Ohio State, but if Oregon can make some noise, so will Brown.

SEC Heisman favorite: Bryce Young, Alabama QB

Ole Miss’ Matt Corral — fifth in FBS at 333.7 yards per game and seventh with 29 touchdowns as a sophomore — may put up bigger numbers, but he’s not touching the hype or the expectations for Young in his first year as the starter in Tuscaloosa. With a litany of NIL endorsement deals and his own NFTs, Young isn’t just commanding attention, he’s owning it. The California product was effective in his backup role as a freshman (13 of 22 for 156 yards) and threw for 333 yards in the Crimson Tide’s spring game, and while neither is leading the nation’s No. 1 team through the gauntlet of the SEC schedule, the Alabama juggernaut has made an art out of thriving with new passers. Two of the last three first-time starters won national championships, with the last two averaging 4,233 yards passing and 42 touchdowns. No pressure, Bryce.

SEC Heisman long shot: Tank Bigsby, Auburn RB

While Corral, Georgia’s J.T. Daniels and Texas A&M’s Haynes King will all be factors when in the SEC, Bigsby may be the conference’s top contender outside of the quarterbacks. He broke out with 834 yards and five touchdowns in 2020, a 6.01 average per carry en route to earning SEC Freshman of the Year honors. That yardage trailed only Michael Dyer’s 1,093 yards in 2020 for the most by any Auburn first-year player, and Bigsby’s output came in just 10 games. Weighing in his favor as Bigsby tries to build on that campaign is the Tigers’ new-look offense. The 6-foot, 208-pounder figures to be an even bigger focal point as they move to a pro-style look under new coach Bryan Harsin and offensive coordinator Mike Bobo after operating in Gus Malzahn’s spread.

Group of Five Heisman favorite: Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati QB

As if anyone needed a reminder, the odds are long for anyone outside the sport’s power structure. This season will be 31 years since BYU’s Ty Detmer claimed the last Heisman outside the major conferences and the current Group of Five last put a player in the top three when Northern Illinois’ Jordan Lynch was third in 2013. Cincinnati and Ridder could be different as they try and upset the status quo. Everything centers around the playoff, with Louisville’s Lamar Jackson (2016) the only player in the era to win the award without his team making that final four. The No. 8 Bobcats have the highest opening rank of any team outside the Power Five since Boise State was fifth to start the 2011 season. Ridder, who threw for 2,296 yards and 19 touchdowns last season and rushed for 572 yards and five more scores, figures to take full advantage as long as Cincinnati keeps its playoff pursuit intact.

Group of Five long shot: Grayson McCall, Coastal Carolina QB

The Chanticleers were one of the best stories of last season, and if those mullet and WWE-inspired celebration vibes take over again in 2021, expect McCall to be in the spotlight. In his first year as a starter, he had a 69 percent completion rate in throwing for 2,488 yards and 26 touchdowns, while also running for 569 yards and seven scores. Coastal Carolina will have 19 starters back in all, including nine on offense, and should be heavy favorites in all of its regular-season games. It’s going to take some eye-popping stats for McCall to muscle his way into the conversation in a schedule that’s low on excitement — outside the Sun Belt, the Chanticleers’ biggest draw is against Kansas — but last season put McCall on everyone’s radar, which can be half the battle outside the Power Five.

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