Finally, we’ve arrived at the 2021 NFL regular season. Fully preparing to get blasted, here are 10 predictions including a pick for Super Bowl LVI.
– The NFC is deeper, but the AFC has most of the heavy hitters
Looking at the NFC, there’s an argument everyone save perhaps the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles to finish above .500. However, how many true contenders are there? Outside of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and arguably the Green Bay Packers, you can easily poke holes.
In the AFC, there are some true bottom-feeders, but the top is stacked. The Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns have elite rosters and coaching staffs, while the Baltimore Ravens are, at most, a half-step down. It’s going to be a brawl in the AFC.
– Justin Fields will start by Week 2 in Chicago
Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy is a smart man. He’s led Chicago for three seasons and reached the playoffs twice without the benefit of even an average quarterback. If the Bears get pummeled on national television this Sunday by the Los Angeles Rams, Nagy will switch to rookie quarterback Justin Fields.
Based on his preseason tape, Fields has plenty to learn. He needs to adjust the line calls and understand his hot reads. Still, he’s clearly Chicago’s best option. If the Bears want to contend for a playoff berth with their offensive lien issues, Fields is their only hope.
– Jimmy Garoppolo starts for the 49ers all year unless injured
Trey Lance has the potential to be a phenomenal quarterback, but he needs time. While Twitter is awash with clips of Lance making incredible throws, the actual tape shows an wonderfully talented player who needs a year of seasoning.
With the San Francisco 49ers competing to win a Super Bowl, Garoppolo is the choice even if he offers less upside. The Niners came within minutes of winning it all with him two years ago, and if the Eastern Illinois product stays healthy, he’s their best bet of completing the feat.
– The Texans will have the ’22 first-overall pick
This is far from a bold prediction, as Vegas has the Houston Texans with the lowest win total at 4. While it’s fun to occasionally go against the proverbial grain, this appears a slam dunk. The Texans do play in a division where perhaps they steal a few games, but they also play the AFC East and NFC West. Good luck with those foes.
Also, 65-year-old David Culley might be a nice man but he’s woefully out of his depth. He’s never been a head coach, and takes over a franchise with an inexperienced front office and a star quarterback in Deshaun Watson facing 22 civil suits alleging sexual assault. If Culley wins six games, he should garner NFL Coach of the Year consideration.
– Derwin James is the biggest wild card for any team
If the Los Angeles Chargers are going to compete with the Chiefs in the AFC West or even secure a Wild Card berth, Justin Herbert must continue his ascension. However, after defensive losses including corner Casey Hayward, edge rusher Melvin Ingram and linebacker Denzel Perryman, the Chargers desperately need a healthy Derwin James.
Last year, James missed the whole season with a torn meniscus. In 2019, the former first-round pick played in five games, sidelined for months with a foot injury. When healthy, James was a First-Team All-Pro and Pro Bowler as a rookie. He can take away tight ends better than any other safety in football, and with Darren Waller and Travis Kelce in the division, the importance of that skill is paramount. In short, the Chargers need James to win.
– This is Urban Meyer’s only year with the Jaguars
Now we’re sliding into the bold category. Or are we? Meyer was a fantastic coach at Florida and Ohio State, but Sunday will be the first time he steps on an NFL sideline in any capacity. This offseason has shown his inexperience, from the ill-fated Tim Tebow experiment and being fined for OTA violations, to drafting a third-down back in the first round back and hiring a coach who ws forced into resigning a day later.
In the pro ranks, Nick Saban and Steve Spurrier each lasted two seasons. Bobby Petrino and Lou Holtz each made it 13 games. College success isn’t a good marker for NFL success, and with Meyer being 57 years old and there potentially being some juicy collegiate openings come December (see: USC, Nebraska … maybe LSU), this could be a short-lived marriage.
– Steelers will finish 3rd in the AFC North, miss the playoffs
Mike Tomlin has never endured a losing season. Maybe he keeps that streak alive as head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2021, but he won’t reach the playoffs. Despite a strong defense, the offense is dealing with an aging, weak-armed quarterback, a bad offensive line and a new system to acclimate to.
Pittsburgh will be a competitive team, but it’s not the caliber of Baltimore or Cleveland. The Steelers can’t throw deep down the middle, and the line suggests that despite taking running back Najee Harris in the first round, the ground attack will be slowed. The Steelers won’t embarrass themselves, but they won’t be a postseason participant either.
– Patrick Mahomes will win his second MVP, but for an interesting reason
Picking Mahomes to win the MVP award is akin to picking Alabama to win another National Championship. Jeeze, Verderame, be more adventurous, right? While Mahomes is the betting favorite and safe pick, there’s a reason behind many aren’t paying attention to.
After the Buccaneers mauled Mahomes in the Super Bowl, Chiefs general manager Brett Veach completely rebuilt his offensive line. And, although it’s starting three rookies on the right side, the group has looked tremendous this summer and internally, Kansas City is thrilled about the immediate upside. If Mahomes has time in the pocket, he’ll shatter records.
– Daniel Jones is playing his last year with the Giants
New York Giants general manager Dave Gettleman has a pair of first-round choices in 2022. With Daniel Jones entering his third year as Big Blue’s starting quarterback, the results have fallen between middling and atrocious. While Gettleman brought in receivers Kenny Golladay and rookie Kadarius Toney for more weaponry around Jones, the offensive line remains a major issue.
Throughout his career, Jones has been turnover-prone. If the front doesn’t hold up, running back Saquon Barkley’s impact will be limited, Jones will be forced into third-and-long and the turnovers will be everywhere. And, if Jones struggles badly this season, the Giants will move on.
– Super Bowl rematch is coming
We haven’t had one since 1993 when the Dallas Cowboys and Bills clashed for a second straight year. However, looking at the landscape, the Buccaneers and Chiefs are the two best teams. Realistically, injuries or an upset likely keeps this from happening, but it’s the smart pick.
As for who wins … is Kansas City’s line healthy? If so, Hail to the Chiefs.
Power rankings
Top 10 non-QB MVP candidates
1. Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
2. Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams
3. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
4. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
5. Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
6. Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
7. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
8. T.J. Watt, EDGE, Pittsburgh Steelers
9. Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
10. Nick Bosa, EDGE, San Francisco 49ers
Quotable
"“I’m biased, but our draft class was one of the best ever. Just go down the line: Cam Jordan, Von Miller, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Patrick Peterson, Ryan Kerrigan, Tyron Smith — it’s an unbelievable list.”"
– Arizona cardinals defensive end J.J. Watt on the 2011 Draft class
Watt isn’t wrong. There’s a decent chance the ’11 group ends up with nine Hall of Famers including Watt, Jordan, Miller, Jones, Green, Peterson and Smith, along with free-agent corner Richard Sherman and Steelers defensive end Cam Heyward. Not bad.
Podcast
Random stat
The New York Giants and New York Jets are the only teams to share a building, and they’ve done it thrice. The teams co-inhabited Shea Stadium in 1975 before each used both Giants Stadium and MetLife Stadium from 1984-current.
Info learned this week
1. Bill Belichick makes obvious decision, but one most wouldn’t do
Mac Jones is starting. Cam Newton is house-hunting.
Nobody — and don’t let the geniuses say otherwise — thought Newton would be cut, but the New England Patriots did exactly that on Tuesday morning. With Newton gone, head coach Bill Belichick has made himself clear. This isn’t Jones getting first crack, this is Jones for better or worse.
Give Belichick a ton of credit here. Most coaches would have gone the Matt Nagy route and slow-played the rookie because traditionally, that’s the route. Not Belichick, who saw the better player and didn’t care about age or experience. If this works, the Patriots will be a problem in the AFC because the defense is good, the offensive line is terrific and the coaching is second-to-none.
The Alabama rookie is going to get a stern test Week 1 with the Miami Dolphins coming to town. Of course, Jones and fellow Crimson Tide alum Tua Tagovailoa square off, which is awkward since Dolphins rookie receiver Jaylen Waddle said in the pre-draft process that he prefers Jones to Tua.
In terms of what the game means for both sides, this might be the best tilt on Sunday.
2. Cowboys will be short-handed up front against fierce Bucs’ rush
This isn’t an ideal start for the Dallas Cowboys.
For starters, Dallas has to play the defending-champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their building with the Super Bowl banner being unveiled. Additionally, the Cowboys are trying to help quarterback Dak Prescott ease out of a recovery for his broken and dislocated ankle from October.
Now, Dallas is without its best offensive lineman in Zack Martin, who will miss Thursday’s opener due to testing positive for COVID-19. Per protocol, Martin — if vaccinated — needs to wait until he’s asymptotic before having consecutive tests (one per day) stating he’s negative. If he’s unvaccinated, Martin would need to quarantine a minimum of 10 days.
Without Martin, the Cowboys are susceptible to both Ndamukong Suh and Vita Vea pushing the interior of the pocket, along with edge rushers Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul running games to loop and stunt inside. Not what Dallas was hoping for.
3. Browns have ultimate revenge, measuring-stick game vs. Chiefs
The last time we saw Cleveland, it was walking out of Arrowhead Stadium after a 22-17 defeat in the AFC Divisional round. From the schedule gods, the Browns will start there in 2021.
Arguably no team has more preseason hype than Cleveland, and it’s deserved. General manager Andrew Berry has assembled a loaded roster and top-tier coaching staff, putting the Browns in the conversation with AFC powers such as Buffalo and Kansas City. The question is whether they’re only part of the talk, or if they can lead it.
While overreacting to Week 1 is both classic and insane, the Browns do have a shot to make a statement. Go into Kansas City and hand Mahomes his first career loss in September, and Cleveland must be taken seriously as a Super Bowl contender. Hell, lose close and the same applies. But the Browns need Baker Mayfield to play like a top-10 quarterback. If he can’t rise to that level this season, Cleveland will always be fighting uphill.
How good are the Browns? We get our first glimpse against the AFC measuring stick.
4. Most interesting game of Week 1 could be Packers-Saints
The storylines are endless. Jameis Winston tries to reboot his career. Aaron Rodgers attempts to put the summer behind him. The Saints are playing a home game in Jacksonville. The list goes on.
For Green Bay, two straight years ending in the NFC title game leads into what is likely Rodgers’ swan song with the cheeseheads. If the Packers fall short, it could be the beginning of a long, painful rebuild. With New Orleans and its formidable defense on the slate to open, Green Bay gets a good test, especially with All-Pro center Corey Linsley gone and star left tackle David Bakhtiari on PUP while he recovers from a torn ACL.
As for the Saints, this is the first year they play without Drew Brees under center since 2005. New Orleans is entrusting Winston, who sat all of 2020 but threw for more than 5,100 yards and 30 interceptions in ’19, to guide them back into the postseason. Can he do it? The Packers are one of the league’s best, so a win on a neutral field would say plenty.
Oh, and the weather in Jacksonville for Sunday? High of 88 degrees and partly sunny. Not bad.
5. Old boss same as the new boss for the Jets?
The New York Jets are ushering in another era … again. This time, it’s led by head coach Robert Saleh and quarterback Zach Wilson, both tenderfoots in their new positions.
Their first true assignment? Face Sam Darnold and the Carolina Panthers.
Darnold, somehow only 23 years old, is surrounded by a new, improved supporting cast. He has receivers Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore, and do-it-all running back Christian McCaffrey. He also has an offensive guru in Matt Rhule for a head coach. While the offensive line has issues, Darnold is finally in position to succeed.
As for Wilson, I’ve written about the challenges. He has no safety net and virtually no experience on the sideline. If things go sideways, they could really go sideways. Still, his first task is to prove he’s indeed different than the old boss. Darnold, for his flashes of excellence, struggled to avoid turnovers, stay on the field and ultimately, win. While the final portion won’t be easy for Wilson with these Jets, the first two must become staples of his game.
On Sunday, Wilson enters his future. If he’s not careful, in more ways than one.
Gambler’s game
Into three-team teasers? Consider the following on WynnBet:
The Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers all going to 1-0, beating the Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys, respectively. In a tease, each needs to win by at least two points. Looks like a good deal.
Two cents
Quarterbacks are the leaders of their football teams. Until they exhibit consistently poor judgment.
In this regard, Carson Wentz (Indianapolis Colts), Kirk Cousins (Minnesota Vikings) and Lamar Jackson (Ravens) deserve ample criticism. While taking the COVID-19 vaccine is a choice, it’s one that exudes responsibility and understanding both from a societal and football standpoint.
Last week, Wentz had to miss time as a close contact of someone who tested positive for the coronavirus, something Cousins dealt with in August. This wouldn’t have been true if he were vaccinated. Jackson missed time during training camp for COVID-related reasons, the second time he’s been so sidelined.
League protocols state an unvaccinated players must quarantine a minimum of 10 days if tested positive, while they are subjected to five days if deemed a close contact. For an unvaccinated player, someone testing positive must simply test negative on consecutive days to return, and isn’t barred from team facilities if a close contact.
While it’s possible, maybe even quite likely, this trio isn’t representative of every starting quarterback resisting vaccination, they’re the known names. In Jackson’s case, he’s leading a contender while also looking for a contract extension upwards of $45 million annually. To exercise such poor decision-making is alarming, and while those who are anti-vax can claim otherwise, there’s ample evidence getting vaccinated protects yourself, and decreases spread to others.
At some point this season, a starting quarterback will have to miss a game because they aren’t vaccinated. When it happens, the locker room is going to erupt, and rightfully so. The same can be said forte coaching staff, which is mandated to be vaccinated.
The Vikings, Colts and Ravens are all playoff hopefuls, yet because of their quarterbacks’ stances, they all sit more vulnerable than most.
Inside the league
Alright, this will need to be a tease this week, but it’s worth the wait.
I’ve got a piece coming Wednesday featuring the non-first-round picks who are primed to be big impact players, and I’m highlighting five players you need to know about. As for a hint? Three second-rounders, a third-rounder and a sixth-rounder. None are quarterbacks, running backs or receivers, but all are going to play major snaps immediately.
One guy’s father played in the NFL, one is Canadian and another is a former 275-pound high school outfielder. Some I’ve written about a bit in this space in the led-up to the draft, and some are getting ink for the first time. It’s going to be a fun, insightful piece.
Keep your eyes peeled on FanSided and my Twitter account, @mattverderame.
History lesson
The Cincinnati Bengals have enjoyed two MVP seasons in their history. In 1981, it was quarterback Ken Anderson and seven years later his replacement, Boomer Esiason, achieved the feat.
Both times, the Bengals reached the Super Bowl and lost to the 49ers.
Parting shot
On Friday, it was 51 years since the passing of former Packers and Washington coach, Vince Lombardi.
Lombardi, a Brooklyn native who rose up the ranks before landing the Green Bay job in 1959, was more than a great football coach; he was a staunch defender of anti-discrimination.
The man who privately felt he was blackballed from jobs for years for being Italian fought vigorously for the Black players and gay rights. He was known for telling players he heard any slurs, they’d be gone immediately. In the 1960s, this was unheard of and in some cases, frowned upon. During his lone year of 1969 in Washington, Lombardi had three gay players on the roster, albeit not public with their sexual orientation.
Overall, Lombardi had a 96-34-6 record as a head coach with five titles (two Super Bowls) including three straight from 1965-67. He was twice the NFL Coach of the Year and after passing in 1970 from stomach cancer, the Super Bowl trophy was renamed in his honor.
Lombardi was so popular nationally, presidential candidate Richard Nixon strongly considered asking the Fordham grad to be his Vice President, until word came down Lombardi was a democrat.
In so many ways, Lombardi was a champion, most importantly of people. Only 57 years old.