The Patriots are officially all in on first round quarterback Mac Jones, but how far can the rookie take New England in 2021?
Well if you had “The Patriots will release Cam Newton before Week 1” on your bingo card, kudos to you. This will be the first time a rookie quarterback has started Week 1 for the Patriots in the Bill Belichick era. How far will Mac Jones take the Patriots this season?
Best-case scenario: Wild Card berth
The Patriots are maybe the second-best team in the AFC East. They aren’t on the level of Buffalo, but they do get multiple pieces back, either from injuries or COVID opt-outs.
Adding both Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith at tight end will give Mac Jones two reliable saftey valves, and I’d expect the Patriots to emphasize the run game. Jones is accurate and fits what Josh McDaniels will do offensively, and if executed well, they could be a playoff team.
Worst-case Scenario
This isn’t a jab at Jones — he’ll be fine — but he will undoubtedly struggle, especially early in the season. However, he is the second-best rookie quarterback in the division behind Zach Wilson.
If Miami plays well and the Jets come into their own, New England could struggle within the AFC East. And sure, people will point out they won seven games last year with a bad cast, but it’s time we tone it down on the argument of “Belichick counts for at least eight wins.” Even the greatest coaches had bad years (i.e. Don Shula in the mid 1980s).
New England could be good, but let’s not pretend it couldn’t also be mediocre.
X-factor
We saw last year how putrid the Patriots were offensively, specifically at receiver. They attempted to bring some talent in by signing Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne to go along with Henry and Smith.
Mac Jones could be a fine quarterback, but if his weapons don’t help him out, it will be 2020 all over again. Now, Jones is a better passer than Newton, but helping your rookie quarterback is a must. If the Patriots skill guys don’t do that, expect a long season in Foxboro.
Biggest game – Week 3 vs. Tampa Bay
There isn’t a game with more of a historical context around it in 2021 than Bucs-Patriots. Tom Brady’s first game in New England as an opponent, and it will come in a game where he will likely break the NFL all-time passing yards record.
Last season saw Brady and the Bucs win a Super Bowl, and the Patriots finish 7-9. You know Belichick and co. would love nothing more than to stick it to their former signal caller.
Bold Prediction
The Patriots are naïve to themselves. They are in that middle ground of being in a rebuild and still trying to compete, which more often than not leads to sub-par football.
New England is usually mediocre in September, but with a rookie quarterback, stumbling out of the gates will set the tone for the rest of the season. If Bourne and Agholor are your idea of revamping the receivers on your roster, that’s also probably not the greatest sign.
Add on the fact that All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore will be out the first six weeks and you have a recipe for more losses than wins in Foxboro in 2021.