Bold predictions for 2021 NFL season, Super Bowl pick … and a star problem?

Inside the NFL’s potential looming ‘star’ problem, Super Bowl picks and bold predictions, and an early test for one of the NFL’s premier defensive rookies.

All offseason I was convinced we’d be seeing a Super Bowl rematch next February.

Then, I started talking to people inside the league …

I still believe that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the most complete team in the league, and the Kansas City Chiefs the most explosive.

But, with apologies to Apollo Creed; “There won’t be no rematch.”

The more I spoke to coaches and executives inside the NFL this week — ahead of the release of FanSided’s mammoth NFL season preview — the more convinced I was one of the AFC’s best could take the next step this season and hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

Circle the Wagons, Bills Mafia.

“The Bills,” an NFC head coach told me was his Super Bowl pick. “Don’t sleep on this team. They have the talent and the balance to get it done.”

I think he’s right.

With Josh Allen aiming to build on last season’s MVP-caliber campaign; passing for a career-high 4,544 yards with 37 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions and a stellar 107.2 passer rating, and a supporting cast that includes Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Devin Singletary, and a loaded defense with playmakers at all three levels, Buffalo has the chance to finish what it started last season.

Remember, Allen pulled the Bills to within 24-15 with 5:49 remaining in the third quarter at Arrowhead in last winter’s AFC Championship Game. A Week 5 clash between the Bills and Chiefs could very well set the stage for this season’s AFC title rematch. If Buffalo is hosting the AFC Championship Game on Janu. 30, with the winter winds swirling off the banks of Lake Erie, look out …

While the AFC bracket is an absolute gauntlet, it’s difficult to envision more than three teams in the NFC having a realistic chance at joining Buffalo at SoFi Stadium on Super Sunday.

Aaron Rodgers’ Green Bay Packers might not face much competition in the NFC North, the Dallas Cowboys – Washington Football Team rivalry could decide the NFC East, and never count out Tom Brady and a defending champion Buccaneers squad that returns every starter from last year’s championship season.

There really is something special brewing in Tampa Bay.

It has never happened before, but general manager Jason Licht and head coach Bruce Arians will bring back every starter from last season. And unlike 2020, when the first six or seven weeks were a socially-distant get-to-know-you mixer, Brady and his cast of weapons; Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, et. al can pick up where they left off and build on last season’s January dash to the franchise’s second Super Bowl championship.

Familiarity, talent, and the greatest quarterback to play the game give this season the makings of a historic one in Tampa.

Here are my official predictions for each division, the MVP, Rookies of The Year, and Super Bowl LVI:

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys 11-6

Washington Football Team 10-7

Philadelphia Eagles 9-8

New York Giants 8-9

NFC North

Green Bay Packers 12-5

Minnesota Vikings 9-8

Chicago Bears 7-10

Detroit Lions 5-12

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13-4

New Orleans Saints 9-8

Carolina Panthers 9-8

Atlanta Falcons 8-9

NFC West

Los Angeles Rams 11-6

Seattle Seahawks 9-8

San Francisco 49ers 9-8

Arizona Cardinals 8-9

AFC East

Buffalo Bills 14-3

New England Patriots 10-7

Miami Dolphins 7-10

New York Jets 6-11

AFC North

Cleveland Browns 13-4

Baltimore Ravens 11-6

Pittsburgh Steelers 9-8

Cincinnati Bengals 7-10

AFC South

Tennessee Titans 13-4

Indianapolis Colts 10-7

Jacksonville Jaguars 3-14

Houston Texans 0-17

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs 15-2

Los Angeles Chargers 10-7

Denver Broncos 10-7

Las Vegas Raiders 6-11

NFC Championship Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28, Los Angeles Rams 23

AFC Championship Game: Buffalo Bills 31, Kansas City Chiefs 28

Super Bowl LVI: Buffalo Bills 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

MVP: Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams

NFL Offensive Rookie of The Year: Mac Jones, QB, New England Patriots

NFL Defensive Rookie of The Year: Micah Parsons, LB, Dallas Cowboys

Three bold predictions for the 2021 NFL season

1) Dak Prescott passes for 5,000 yards

For as dominant as the Cowboys’ offensive line is in front of star running back Ezekiel Elliott, this is an offense built around Dak Prescott and the passing game.

In a 17-game season, Prescott has the supporting cast around him; CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup to eclipse 5,000 passing yards for the first time in his career, providing he stays healthy. Keep in mind, that’s an average of just over 294 yards per game. I think he exceeds that number … maybe easily.

2) Mac Jones is the best of the incoming rookie quarterbacks

There might not be a rookie quarterback in league history to walk into a better situation; an offense built around two pass-catching tight ends, in a very winnable division, playing in a scheme that’s tailor made to his best traits and playing for the greatest coach in the history of the sport.

Wilson was the last quarterback chosen in the first-round this spring, but he showed this summer he is consistent enough and makes few enough mistakes to produce like a seasoned veteran. I think he does, this fall.

3) CeeDee Lamb breaks the NFL single-season receiving yards record

In an expanded schedule, records are going to crumble in 2021 and coming seasons. Why can’t Lamb, who averaged 58 yards per game as a rookie with a rotating cast of mediocre quarterbacks (Ben DiNucci, Andy Dalton, and some guy named Garrett Gilbert) throwing passes after Week 5, elevate his game as Prescott’s favorite target?

Someone has to catch all those passes, and Lamb would only need to average 117 yards per game to do it …

Is the NFL facing a looming star crisis?

Entering the 2021 season, the NFL feels like a top-heavy league in terms of both teams and star players.

The front offices of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns, and Buffalo Bills have built rosters that would surprise no one if they were standing amid the swirling confetti in the shadow of LAX next February.

Patrick Mahomes can make a strong case as the most gifted quarterback in the league. Josh Allen cashed in on the greatest season of his young career this offseason.

However, as Drew Brees’ retirement leaves a void in New Orleans and Father Time begins catching up to Tom Brady (he has to win that race at some point, right? … Right?!), what does the next chapter for the league look like?

“The league is so watered down right now,” an AFC South scouting director tells FanSided. “Even if you look at the NFL Top 100, that group wasn’t all that impressive.”

Parity has always been a hallmark of the NFL, from Pete Rozelle’s reign to the present.

But, it seems like the chasm between the haves and have-nots has never been wider.

Take the above-mentioned seven Super Bowl favorites out of the equation, and the other 25 teams combined for a .485 winning percentage last season, with eight teams winning five or fewer games.

Given the issues facing the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, and others this season, might that number balloon in 2021?

As always, the teams with elite quarterback play; the Mahomes’, Allen’s, Aaron Rodgers’, Bradys, Matthew Staffords, Russell Wilsons, and Dak Prescotts of the world will have a very legitimate chance to compete for Super Bowls.

But, the average age of that group is 31.

Ben Roethlisberger could be entering his Pittsburgh Steelers swan song in 2021, at age 39, as questions are already being whispered around one of the league’s heritage franchises and most important markets about what comes next.

“The league is going to have a star problem soon,” the scouting director says. “Look at what happens when the Mannings’, Phillip Rivers’, Drew Brees’ leave the league. Soon, it will be Roethlisberger, Brady, and Rodgers retiring.”

There certainly is reason to be optimistic Justin Herbert can forge a rivalry with Mahomes’ Chiefs year in and year out.

“If they can fix game management issues, he’ll have the stats and wins to push for an MVP case,” said an NFC head coach of the Chargers and Herbert.

But, to the scouting director’s point, there have been 24 quarterbacks chosen in the first-round since 2015 … It has proven extremely difficult to mine elite talent at the most important position in the sport, and most likely to develop into a superstar.

What happens to the NFL when the grizzled, and Super Bowl bedazzled veterans hang ’em up in coming years?

“Is Kyler Murray a star?” the scouting director wonders. “Is Baker Mayfield? I don’t think so. The league will be hoping that Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, etc. can carry the torch.”

NFL Week 1 best bet

According to WynnBet, The Cleveland Browns are 6.5-point underdogs to the Kansas City Chiefs, in a rematch at Arrowhead of last January’s AFC Divisional round.

The Chiefs spent significant resources rebuilding the offensive line, in hopes of preventing the Buccaneers’ Super Bowl onslaught of Mahomes from ever happening again. There might not be a more daunting challenge than facing Myles Garrett and a tough front seven right away.

The Chiefs are the better team, but are they a touchdown better than the Browns, this early in the season? I don’t think so.

Pick: Browns +6.5

Podcast

Quotable

"“It’s not foreign to me to have some type of matchup that’s as such … I watched a lot of film, had to watch a lot of film to be able to be ready for a guy that’s as talented as him. So we’ll be ready. I’ll be ready and as a team we’re looking forward to game planning and correcting stuff. I’m expecting to have a big role — nickel, some base, stuff like that.”"

– Browns rookie linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah on facing Chiefs TE Travis Kelce, via the Willoughby News-Herald

Owusu-Koramoah may be among the biggest steals of the first-round of the NFL Draft, and there might not be a bigger opening test than matching up against Kelce and the Chiefs.

Mahomes produced a 124.9 passer rating when targeting Kelce, who dropped only two of his 139 targets last season.

Meanwhile, Owusu-Koramoah produced an 82.3 coverage grade from Pro Football Focus last season at Notre Dame, but he isn’t facing Navy, anymore.

We’re going to quickly see what the Chiefs and Browns are made of, and even more so, if Owusu-Koramoah can handle a significant role against arguably the premier tight end in the league.

Final thought

It was incredible to see the return of packed college football stadiums this weekend, along with them the return of the pomp and circumstance and most raucous atmospheres in sports.

From Virginia Tech’s (nearly fully vaccinated) student section’s delirious reaction to Enter Sandman as the Hokies took the field ahead of an upset of Mac Brown’s overrated and overhyped North Carolina Tarheels to Iowa Fans waiving at the cancer patients on the top floor of University of Iowa Children’s Hospital, and Camp Randall Jumping around in Wisconsin, college football returned with a vengeance … and one of the more entertaining weekends the sport has seen in quite some time.

This week, we’ll see the return of what could be nearly 111,000 fans in Beaver Stadium, greeting the suddenly nationally relevant Penn State Nittany Lions off Saturday’s upset of Wisconsin, Alabama fans taking in a beatdown of Mercer, and many more fans getting back into their home stadiums for the first time in nearly two years.

All of which serving as the undercard for the first full NFL Sunday of the season.

The college football product might be the most enthralling in all of sports, and the atmosphere is something the NFL can’t quite hold a handle to.

But, after everything the nation has been through over the past 18-plus months, seeing a Sunday chalk full of marquee matchups; Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints, and more has the makings of a classic September Sunday, one we all deserve.

Football is back, in all its glory. Long live football.

Matt Lombardo is FanSided’s National NFL Insider and writes Between The Hash Marks each Wednesday. Email Matt: Matt.Lombardo@FanSided.com.