College football best bets: 5 locks of the week for Week 3 including Alabama vs. Florida & Ohio State vs. Tulsa

These college football picks and best bets are sure to hit in Week 3 of the 2021 season as we’re ready to call them our locks of the week. 

Maybe it’s just some early-season luck but our college football best bets and lock have been hitting at a big clip coming into a Week 3 slate that has some huge games, a couple of which appear to be ripe for the taking when you look at the odds.

Through two weeks — including a 10-pack of best bets in Week 1 — we’re sitting with a 10-5 record with our locks. Yes, we went just 3-2 last week (thanks a lot, Texas A&M) but a 7-3 start to the season is bolstering our record in a big way. As such, we’re looking to stay hot and keep well above that .500 line for the 2021 season as we look at the Week 3 college football odds.

Featuring some heavy hitters from the slate, these are the best bets and locks for college football Week 3 that you can take to the bank. (Note: All odds are courtesy of WynnBet.)

College football best bets, picks and locks for Week 3

5. College football best bets: Auburn vs. Penn State (-6.0)

If you just look at the raw numbers, Auburn being an underdog would look crazy. The Tigers have scored 61.0 points per game while allowing 5.0 per contest compared to Penn State averaging 30.0 points per game and giving up 11.5 points per game. But when you then consider that the Nittany Lions have a win over Wisconsin while Bryan Harsin’s team has played Akron and Alabama State, those numbers mean nothing.

The long-standing principle of fading Bo Nix against good defenses remains fully intact and Penn State is a darn good defensive unit. Furthermore, while Auburn’s defense is no slouch, the Nittany Lions have enough weapons to break through a few times. The only thing that gives me pause is Sean Clifford’s mistake-prone tendencies but I still have more faith in him than Nix.

4. College football best bets: SMU (-13.0) vs. Louisiana Tech

Albeit not against the best competition, Oklahoma transfer quarterback Tanner Mordecai and running back Ulysses Bentley IV has led SMU to an impressive start to the season with 45.5 points per game en route to 2-0. Meanwhile, they’re visiting a Louisiana Tech team that fought well with Mississippi State but lost and then handled Southeast Louisiana.

All told, the Mustangs are just the better team in this matchup and it’s not all that close. I don’t have faith that a Bulldogs defense that has allowed 38.5 points per game can stop this SMU offense consistently enough to keep it within two touchdowns at the end of four quarters.

3. New Mexico vs. Texas A&M – Under 50.5

Why in the world is this point total set at 50.5 points? For starters, it’s entirely conceivable that New Mexico doesn’t score in this game. The Lobos are 2-0 while averaging 30.5 points per game, but that happened against Houston Baptist and New Mexico State. That doesn’t bode well for them.

More importantly, though, Zach Calzada is starting for injured Haynes King at the helm of the Aggies offense and, frankly, looked bad against Colorado. Texas A&M should be able to move the ball against New Mexico but the expectation should be a heavy dose of the run game that slows the pace and doesn’t get close to 50.5 points for total.

2. Alabama (-15.0) vs. Florida 

Betting on a top-15 matchup always gives me some type of trepidation but I’m confident enough in Alabama to throw that by the wayside. The Crimson Tide’s offense may not be perfect with Bryce Young but the talent is undeniable and their line is good enough to hold Florida at bay to allow them to do just about whatever they want as long as they don’t make mistakes.

The key factor here, however, is that the Gators continue to start Emory Jones, who limits the offense more than Anthony Richardson would. Subsequently going up against this elite Alabama defense, my belief is that Florida struggles to move the ball and, even if they move to Richardson late, it’ll be too late for them to end up covering.

1. Tulsa vs. Ohio State (-24.5)

Things have not gone well for the Buckeyes to start the season after a scare from Minnesota and an upset loss to Oregon at home. Do you think that might possibly light a fire under Ryan Day and his team? This has all the makings of a statement game that really gets out of hand.

If nothing else, C.J. Stroud has proven he can put up a ton of offense and, if Ohio State can get the run game involved, that group is dangerous. Facing a Tulsa team that’s 0-2 with losses to UC-Davis and Oklahoma State and that is averaging 20.0 points per game. This is an opportunity to get right for the Buckeyes and they’ll do so with aplomb.

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