Inside the Clubhouse: Playoff races, MLB free agents to watch and more

This week, Inside the Clubhouse looks at the final state of the playoff races, some MLB free agents to watch, Casey Sadler’s breakout and more.

The current American League wild-card standings:

New York Yankees: 90-68
Boston Red Sox: 89-69
Seattle Mariners: 89-70
Toronto Blue Jays: 88-70

The Oakland A’s, currently 85-74, are out after dropping seven of their last 10 games. They have lost 10 straight games against the Mariners and had they just split those games, they would have had sole possession of the first AL Wild Card spot. Instead, it eliminates the possibility of a five-way tie. But the next four days promise to deliver suspense and drama in what should be the most exciting wild card race in recent memory.

Getting to this point required patience, but the Yankees are playing their most consistent baseball at the right time. Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge have been their best performers. Anthony Rizzo, Gio Urshela and Gleyber Torres have stepped up offensively. The bullpen has the second-lowest bullpen ERA in the American League this season, with Chad Green, Luis Severino, Wandy Peralta and Clay Holmes combining for a 0.00 ERA in the last week.

The Red Sox are in a more precarious position. Instead of putting a rival away, they were swept by the Yankees and kept four teams (now three) in play. They lost the first game (4-2) to an awful Orioles team before winning the second (6-0). At one point, the Red Sox seemed destined for a postseason berth. Now, with four games to go and a 0.5 game lead for the second AL wild-card spot, they have left themselves with no margin for error.

One rival evaluator says the Blue Jays are “terrifying” in a wild card game. Their 1-5 hitters are George Springer, Marcus Semien, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Teoscar Hernández. They can start Robbie Ray, who is the favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award, and should they advance, have a rotation that could feature Ray, José Berríos, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Alek Manoah. They have four games left, including the series finale against the Yankees, before finishing with a three-game series against the 107-loss Orioles that could vault them into a wild card game — making that evaluator’s nightmare a reality.

The Mariners, however, might be the scariest team of them all despite FanGraphs giving them a 19.3 percent chance of making the postseason. They have the best record (30-15) in baseball since Aug. 10. Their bullpen has been their biggest strength this season. Jarred Kelenic, who is the face of their rebuild, has finished the season strong and had his whiff rate drop significantly in September. They finish with a three-game series against the Los Angeles Angels, who will no longer start AL MVP favorite Shohei Ohtani on Sunday.

The Mariners are only 0.5 games back of the second wild-card spot, but after their season was once close to spiraling out of control, everything is finally looking up for a team that hasn’t made the postseason since 2001.

Four days to go. Chaos looms.

Four MLB free agents to watch:

Marcus Semien: Teams passed on Semien last winter, leading him to sign a one-year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. That won’t happen again. His 7.2 bWAR ranks fourth in baseball. He can play shortstop and second base at a high level. He’s slashing .267/.338/.543 with 44 home runs and 101 RBI. The Blue Jays are interested in signing Semien to an extension, but it will take a lot more than the $18 million average annual value it took to sign him last offseason.

Max Scherzer: Scherzer, 37, is going to get paid this offseason and should sign a contract that exceeds the two-year, $85 million deal Trevor Bauer signed last winter. His 2.28 ERA is a career-best. Since the trade to the Dodgers, he has a 1.43 ERA and 85 strikeouts and only eight walks, putting himself squarely in the mix for the NL Cy Young award. The crazy part? He’s getting better, evidenced by the improvements he’s made to his curveball.

Jon Gray: Gray is a strong candidate for a qualifying offer after not being traded at the deadline. But Gray, who has pitched better at Coors Field than on the road, is going to have a strong market. He has indicated a desire to stay with the Colorado Rockies, but teams could offer a deal too lucrative to pass up as they dream of him reaching his No. 3 overall pick potential.

Chris Taylor: As Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote, the market for Taylor is going to be strong. He plays everywhere defensively. He walks. He’s got some power (20 home runs). He should sign a deal close to Ben Zobrist’s four-year, $56 million deal. One evaluator said he is “the same player, but a better version” of Kiké Hernandez who signed a two-year, $14 million deal last offseason.

Casey Sadler is one right now

“Is Casey Sadler quietly the most underrated pitcher in MLB?”

I received that text Wednesday morning from an American League executive. On Monday, Sadler extended his scoreless streak to 26 games, which set a Seattle Mariners team record. It’s currently the longest streak in baseball (22.2 innings), with Milwaukee Brewers reliever Josh Hader (18.1), Chicago Cubs reliever Brad Wieck (17) and Atlanta Braves starter Max Fried (16) trailing behind.

Sadler, 31, was considered an afterthought after being claimed from the Chicago Cubs last season. He posted a 4.50 ERA in 10 innings with the Mariners last year. He squeaked out a spot on the Mariners’ Opening Day Roster, posting a 1.64 ERA and 10/6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 11 innings to start the season. But in the second half, as he became a more prominent part of Seattle’s bullpen, he has allowed only one run in 26.2 innings (0.34 ERA).

So what has gone into the breakout?

For years, Sadler primarily relied on his sinker. This year, however, he has increased the usage of his cutter (40.9 percent) and is sequencing it more effectively with his sinker (26.8 percent; 59.3 percent in 2018). The result has been a decreased launch angle (12.3 in 2020; 4 in 2021). His sweet spot percentage has dropped from 32.1 to 19.1. While his hard-hit rate is 31.9 percent, up from 26.4 percent last season, he has cut his walk rate nearly in half (14 percent in 2020; 7.3 percent in 2021).

The Mariners have leaned heavily on their bullpen this season, even after moving Kendall Graveman at the trade deadline. But their current group, headlined by Sadler, has contributed to their 18-8 record in September and brought them 0.5 games back in the AL wild-card race with three games remaining.

Why the Royals extended Michael A. Taylor

Signing Michael A. Taylor to a two-year, $9 million extension illustrates the Kansas City Royals’ belief in Bobby Witt and Nick Pratto, two young position players who will be big-league ready in 2022. But it highlights the immense value they place on defense in the spacious Kauffman Stadium outfields.

Taylor, 30, is “the best defensive outfielder in baseball,” one evaluator said. The numbers back it up. He’s rated at 21 runs above average in 1,141 innings in center field, six runs ahead of St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Harrison Bader. On Statcast, Taylor is tied with Bader and Manuel Margot with an outfield-best +14 plays. Taylor’s 12.7 ultimate zone rating is the best among players at any position.

For Royals general manager Dayton Moore, it was a deal that needed to get done. Internal talks regarding an extension began early in the second half of the season. Then talks with Taylor’s agent, Matt Hannaford of ALIGND Sports, began on a deal to solidify Kansas City’s center field for the first time since Lorenzo Cain left in 2017.

If Taylor’s glove remains elite, he will earn the $9 million over two years that is widely considered a “really strong deal for the player.” But the Royals are hopeful they can get more out of Taylor offensively. He has flashed power to all fields, but his struggles with the strike zone have limited his production to .244/.298/.359 with 12 home runs and .657 OPS.

The contract breakdown, per source: 2022: $4.5 million; 2023: $4.5 million; $250K incentives in each season ($50K at 325, 375, 425, 475, 525 plate appearances).