Women’s college basketball preview: Rankings, best players, breakout stars, Final Four picks
Women’s college basketball season preview, including power rankings of the best teams and best players, top freshmen to watch and Final Four picks.
Women’s college basketball is back!
After a 2020-21 season that featured a handful of teams canceling their seasons amidst the COVID-19 pandemic and games being canceled all over the place, the 2021-22 season should look a lot normal, even if there will still inevitably be some COVID-related cancelations.
Last season saw the Stanford Cardinal win the national title, the school’s third NCAA title and first since 1992. Stanford defeated Arizona in the title game, the first time in tournament history that two Pac-12 teams had met in the championship game and the first time since 2017 that two teams from the same conference faced off.
Stanford returns much of last year’s team. Will that lead to a repeat title for the Cardinal? Or is another team lurking, ready to capture the 2022 championship?
Women’s college basketball season preview: Who is the best team?
South Carolina lost to Stanford in the Final Four last year, but the Gamecocks enter this season as the team best positioned to win it all.
Why? Talent and coaching.
South Carolina returns the best big in the country in Aliyah Boston. It returns some really solid guards in Zia Cooke, Destanni Henderson, Brea Beal and Lele Grissett.
And it has three of the top four freshmen recruits in the country: guards Raven Johnson and Saniya Rivers, plus forward Sania Feagin. And just for good measure, the team brought in the 14th-ranked recruit, guard Aubryanna Hall.
SC is the deepest team in the country. UConn and Stanford are both really, really good and have a great chance to win the title, but Dawn Staley has put together a team that just doesn’t have holes. Boston can score inside. Henderson shot 41.4 percent from three last year, while Cooke shot 39.3 percent.
Women’s college basketball season preview: Is Paige Bueckers the best player?
The national media loves Paige Bueckers because she’s a) an extremely good player and b) a player for UConn, but I don’t think Bueckers is the best player in the country. She’s close. She’ll very likely be the best player in the country next season unless Iowa’s Caitlin Clark leaps past her.
But in terms of the best player in the country this season, to me, that honor goes to Baylor forward NaLyssa Smith.
Last season, Smith averaged 18.0 points per game on 56.1 percent shooting, plus averaged 8.9 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 0.8 blocks per game. Per CBB Analytics, Smith was in the 95th percentile in true shooting percentage last year. She drew 4.2 fouls per game. She shot almost 80 percent from the stripe. Smith was able to bully opponents, leading to her shooting 80.9 percent at the rim, which was 22.5 percent above average. In fact, her field goal percentage was above average in every zone inside the arc.
All that came with some questionable spacing on a team that usually played her with non-shooters DiDi Richards and Queen Egbo. Both of those players are excellent, but new head coach Nicki Collen is set to shoot the ball more from deep, opening up even more room for Smith to operate.
The other option for best player? Rhyne Howard, the Kentucky guard. Howard is an elite offensive player who also was 43rd in the country in steals per game last year. The former National Freshman of the Year will continue to be the engine for the Wildcats. Her worst shooting season from deep was last year and she still shot 37.3 percent from behind the arc.
Women’s college basketball season preview: Which teams will surprise?
You can say that I have some Lone Star State bias here, but Texas A&M is not getting talked about enough. No. 23 in the preseason AP Top 25 poll, the Aggies have to replace two key inside players in N’dea Jones and Ciera Johnson but bring back some serious backcourt talent with Destiny Pitts, Kayla Wells and Jordan Nixon. The team will have to hope freshman Jada Malone can provide some immediate presence on the interior, but there’s a lot of talent on this Aggies team.
In terms of mid-major schools, South Dakota has one of the best mid-major players in the country in Hannah Sjerven.
A few other teams that could be in for big years and could make a Sweet 16/Elite Eight push:
- Iowa State
- Georgia Tech
- Arkansas
- Missouri State
Women’s college basketball season preview: Who fills the shoes of WNBA draft picks like Charli Collier and Aari McDonald?
Last year’s WNBA Draft was notorious for being “weak,” but that doesn’t mean the graduation of some top seniors won’t be felt across college basketball.
That starts with Arizona. Aari McDonald exploded during the NCAA Tournament, leading the three-seed Wildcats to the title game before losing to Stanford. But with McDonald gone, Arizona is getting no respect in the AP poll, as the team starts the year ranked No. 22.
Likewise, Texas went to the Elite Eight last year — where it was blown out by South Carolina — but loses No. 1 overall pick, Charli Collier, putting the Longhorns in an odd position heading into this season. Vic Schaefer has brought in a strong recruiting class, including two players ranked in the top 10 in the ESPN HoopGurlz rankings, forward Aaliyah Moore and guard Rori Harmon, plus Harmon’s high school teammate Kyndall Hunter. (Full disclosure: I had a chance to watch Hunter play in high school and I really think she’s getting overlooked in discussions about top freshmen. In the two games I saw, she was the clear best player on the floor in games that featured North Carolina guard Deja Kelly and Butler guard Trinity White.)
Arkansas will have to replace Chelsea Dungee and Destiny Slocum, but head coach Mike Neighbors has created a fast-paced offensive system that should still function well with Amber Ramirez plus freshman Jersey Wolfenbarger.
Women’s college basketball season preview: Top freshmen to watch
There’s no Paige Bueckers in this year’s freshman class and there’s no Caitlin Clark either, but that doesn’t mean that this year’s crop of freshmen won’t have an immediate impact.
For the second year in a row, UConn brings in the top recruit in the country, in 5-11 guard Azzi Fudd. Fudd won the Gatorade National Player of the Year award as a sophomore, the first time that had ever happened. Fudd can score from anywhere on the floor and can run the offense as well. A Bueckers/Fudd backcourt is going to be impossible to defend.
South Carolina’s incredible freshmen group has been discussed above. Likewise for Texas. And Arkansas’s Wolfenbarger.
Some other first-year players to keep an eye on:
- Caroline Ducharme – Guard – UConn
- Teonni Key – Forward – North Carolina
- Olivia Miles – Guard – Notre Dame
- Brooke Demetre – Forward – Stanford
- Maryam Dauda – Center – Arkansas
Women’s college basketball season preview: Projected WNBA Draft lottery picks
This is going to be a really good draft class. Not counting draft-eligible juniors, here are seniors who could play their way into the lottery, listed in the order that I have them right now on my big board:
- Rhyne Howard – Forward – Kentucky
- NaLyssa Smith – Forward – Baylor
- Shakira Austin – Center – Mississippi
- Ashley Joens – Forward – Iowa State
- Naz Hillmon – Forward – Michigan
- Elissa Cunane – Center – NC State
- Christyn Williams – Guard – UConn
Not a great draft for guards. So keep an eye out for players like Anastasia Hayes or Destanni Henderson to make a leap up draft boards.
Women’s college basketball season preview: Final Four predictions
Last season’s Final Four featured three No. 1 seeds and three-seed Arizona. It’s pretty normal for the Final Four to feature three very good teams and then another team that is also good. So in predicting this season’s Final Four, it’s smart to start with picking the top four teams. And for that, I like starting with the AP poll’s top three of South Carolina, UConn and Stanford. The three schools played in last year’s Final Four. All three enter this season with most of the same pieces: Stanford’s Kiana Williams was the only player on any of the teams to be drafted into the WNBA.
As for that fourth spot, that’s where things get interesting. Maryland is fourth in the AP poll if you want to go off of that. ACC programs NC State and Louisville are fifth and sixth in the poll, with Baylor one spot behind them. Any of those teams could join those first three schools in the Final Four. But if you want a surprise Final Four pick, I’m going with Iowa. Clark and Monika Czinano make for one of the best duos in the country. And the addition of Iowa State transfer Kylie Feuerbach gives the Hawkeyes another really good weapon.
dark. Next. Whatever happened to these forgotten college stars?
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