Heisman watch 2021: Will Anderson, Jordan Davis and the odds Heisman voters right the Ndamukong Suh wrong

Defensive stars Jordan Davis, Will Anderson and Kayvon Thibodeaux are among the best players in college football, but do they have a chance to win the Heisman Trophy?

In 1980, Hugh Green had a theory.

The Pitt defensive end was a force upon himself entering his senior season, with a resume that included being a two-time All-American, and he had already been named to the Panthers’ all-time team. Add in a ridiculous 337 tackles and 36 sacks, and he was the kind of strictly defensive player that could do what none more and non since have been able to accomplish: win the Heisman Trophy.

But the way that Green saw it, if he couldn’t win, he was at least part of a shift in the narrative. Five of the top six players in the previous year’s Heisman voting were gone, and with Green and Los Angeles duo of safeties in Ronnie Lott (USC) and Kenny Easley (UCLA), there were too many established defensive stars to ignore.

“We had positioned ourselves defensively that if I didn’t win the Heisman someone else defensively would have won it,” Green told me for my book The Heisman Trophy: The Story of an American Icon and its Winners. “. . . If you eliminate me then — BOOM! — it falls into the category of, ‘OK, if I’m not deserving, then those guys are deserving.’ One of the three.”

It would be none of the three, with South Carolina’s George Rogers claiming the trophy, while Green had to settle for second with 179 first-place votes and 861 points. It remains the highest finish for a strictly defensive player in history, one that was equaled by Notre Dame’s Manti Te’o in 2012.

Even the hopes of making it to the ceremony as a finalist have been difficult to come by.

Green’s bid came two years before the Downtown Athletic Club began inviting players to the ceremony, and it wasn’t until 1986 with Oklahoma’s Brian Bosworth that a defensive player actually became a finalist.

Steve Emtman (1991), Warren Sapp (1994), Ndamukong Suh (2009), Tyrann Mathieu (2011), Jabrill Peppers (2016), and, most recently Chase Young (2019) all followed Bosworth, but none have finished higher than Te’o as a finalist.

The case of Suh was of particular note, upstaging Colt McCoy in Nebraska’s narrow loss to Texas. The Cornhusker defensive lineman sacked had 4 1/2 sacks on the Longhorns quarterback, totaling 12 tackles, with seven for loss. But he finished fourth, 330 points behind the third-place McCoy and 489 behind the winner, Alabama’s Mark Ingram.

The narrative hasn’t changed, and it’s remained impossible for a player who doesn’t factor into offense or special teams – those were the keys to Charles Woodson’s breakthrough in 1997 – but Green had a point with his theory, and it’s one worth revisiting with what we’re watching unfold.

Can Will Anderson, Jordan Davis, Kayvon Thibodeaux do what Hugh Green couldn’t and win the Heisman?

Top-ranked Georgia is predicated by hulking tackle Jordan Davis and its defense, and while No. 3 Alabama may have the betting favorite in this trophy chase, there’s an argument to be made that its best player isn’t quarterback Bryce Young, but linebacker Will Anderson. The same for No. 5 Oregon, whose defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux made no bones about it this summer when he said his goal was to win the Heisman.

Davis’ stats aren’t eye-opening, as he has 21 tackles, including 3.5 for loss and has two sacks and eight quarterback hurries. But the 6-foot-6, 340-pounder is the backbone of a defense that’s allowed just six touchdowns for an average of 6.6 points per game – more than half that of the No. 2 team Texas A&M at 14.7 per – and has given up just two on the ground. The Bulldogs also come in second in FBS in allowing 230.2 yards per game.

If Georgia’s defense is the single most dominant part of the 2021 college football season, then isn’t by default its driving force worthy of Heisman consideration? But therein lies the problem with Davis’ case. The numbers aren’t overwhelming, and while the hope is the 929 voters can dig deeper and appreciate dominance without statistics, that’s not reality.

So far, the support for Davis has been quiet, though moments, as he had against Missouri when he was used on the offensive line in a goal-line situation, could help. Though, if we’re being real, get him the ball in these situations and we’re having an entirely different conversation, Kirby Smart.

While Alabama survived LSU, it didn’t do so with Young defining its play. That role was filled by Anderson, who racked up 12 tackles, four for loss and 1.5 sacks. He now has 10.5 sacks and 21 tackles for loss, the most by an Alabama player in a single season under Nick Saban. Last month against Mississippi State, Anderson became the third player in Crimson Tide history with four sacks in a game, joining Derrick Thomas and Leroy Cook.

That’s heady status for an Alabama defender, but Anderson’s hopes come with the misfortune of sharing a field with the presumptive favorite. His candidacy is unlikely to gain steam with Young seemingly on track to make it back-to-back players from Alabama’s offense to claim the trophy.

Out west, Thibodeaux has been a double-team waiting to happen along Oregon’s defensive line, but despite all that, he still has 28 tackles, with eight for loss, five quarterback hurries and four sacks.

He commands attention and the defensive end’s play is a major reason the Ducks remain in the College Football Playoff hunt. But Thibodeaux’s Heisman fate was sealed when he missed out on the Ducks’ biggest win of the season when he sat out against Ohio State on Sept. 11, and it doesn’t help that he sat out another game vs. Stony Brook, was on a snap count vs. Arizona and ejected against Stanford, which cost him the first half a week later against Cal.

While each comes with some positives, looking for those to outweigh history and voter tendencies doesn’t match reality.

There remain a few glass ceilings with the Heisman, which has yet to be one by a true freshman, and never by a player whose only contributions were on defense. With two redshirt freshmen – Johnny Manziel and Jameis Winston in 2012 and 2013, respectively – it feels like we’re closer to a player a year removed from high school having a legitimate shot, than a defender.

But ask yourself: are we seeing enough from offensive players this season that it’s not at least worth wondering if voters should look elsewhere instead of falling into old routines?

Outside of Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker III, we’ve been waiting for the other contenders to have that moment that establishes them in the race and leaves little doubt that they’re Heisman-worthy. But what if in waiting now into November for that to happen, voters are ignoring talent while waiting to anoint others? Like Green and his cohorts back in 1980 were pushing for, there are defensive players with talent levels capable of changing what’s deemed Heisman-worthy, three of them on three of the top five teams in the rankings.

But nothing about recent voting tells us this is likely the year the glass ceiling is shattered. In the years since Te’o’s runner-up to Manziel, no one has finished higher than Chase Young’s fourth place in 2019, and there wasn’t a defensive player in the top 10 last year, just the second time that has happened in the last 10 years.

Just maybe, Davis or Anderson or even Thibodeaux winds up in New York for the ceremony, a front-row seat at a stage reserved for offensive players. With Davis and Anderson’s teams on track to meet in the SEC Championship Game, there’s the chance of a finish that equals what Young did for Ohio State two years ago.

But we know how this story, like every Heisman race that has come before it, will end.

As Green succinctly put it, “I don’t think a pure defensive player can win.”

Heisman race 2021: Who is heating up, who is cooling off?

Buy: Kenneth Walker III, Michigan State

The Spartans’ CFP hopes were delivered a blow, falling behind the Buckeyes in the Big Ten East standings with a loss to noted top-5 killer Purdue, but that result wasn’t on Walker, who was sensational yet again. He 146 yards and a score on 23 carries, giving the Wake Forest transfer an FBS-best 1,340 yards and 15 touchdowns (tied for third). Walker still appears headed for the ceremony and continues to bolster those numbers this Saturday vs. Maryland, which allowed a season-high 326 rushing yards to Minnesota.

Sell: C.J. Stroud, Ohio State

While one Big Ten contender rises amid a loss, another takes a hit despite a win. Stroud did throw for 405 yards in a narrow win over Nebraska, but within that performance, he also threw two interceptions. Those were his first since Sept. 18 against Tulsa, a span of 141 attempts without a pick. The yardage saves Stroud but having already missed a game he can’t afford any further setbacks. Now he’ll face FBS’ 15th-ranked pass defense in those same Boilermakers that have already knocked Iowa and Michigan State from its top-5 perches within the last month.

Buy: Matt Corral, Ole Miss

In what might have been the best talent vs. talent quarterback matchup of the week, Corral got the best of Liberty’s Malik Willis. Corral threw for 324 yards and a touchdown, while Willis was picked off three times in finishing with 173 yards (though he did rush for 71 yards and a score), as the Rebels rebounded from the loss to Auburn. Corral’s future schedule received a boost with the latest rankings, with Egg Bowl rival Mississippi State climbing to No. 17, giving him two ranked opponents over the next three weeks. The first comes Saturday with No. 14 Texas A&M and a defense that has held South Carolina and Auburn to 114 and 153 yards, respectively, over its last two wins and allowed one passing touchdown to three combined interceptions.

Sell: Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati

The Bearcats’ CFP hopes are still afloat, and Ridder still has a legitimate chance to wind up as a finalist should they stay on that track. That being said, if we’re putting an emphasis on style points, Ridder didn’t help himself in a close win over Tulsa, fumbling at Cincinnati’s 3-yard line with 1:11 remaining and needing his defense to mount an impressive stand to keep the perfect record intact. Ridder’s 274 passing yards were his highest since Oct. 2 vs. Notre Dame, but he also threw a pick for the third straight game. He’s in need of some monster numbers, and Saturday at South Florida, which is 113th in pass defense (271.4 yards per game) could be the right team and the right time.

Buy: Bryce Young, Alabama

Yes, we just discussed that Young should have company in the Heisman conversation within his own team with Anderson, but the “conversation” doesn’t always mirror plausibility. Young remains the Crimson Tide’s best bet, and he’s now thrown for 300-plus yards in four straight games and in that span tossed 11 touchdown passes to one interception. He should be in for a short and efficient day this week against New Mexico State, which comes to Tuscaloosa 123rd in pass defense (285.6) and has allowed 22 touchdowns, including 10 over the last three games.

Sell: Sam Hartman, Wake Forest

Hartman’s case mirrors Wake Forest’s season. The team was becoming one of the biggest stores of the season, as was a quarterback becoming a surprise contender with some impressive numbers. The team took a hit with a loss to North Carolina, but there was still a lot to like from Hartman, who was slinging again to the tune of 398 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions, while also running for two more scores to go with 78 yards. The field is crowded, and Hartman is in a similar position to Ridder – though the Demon Deacon passer is putting up imminently stronger stats – needing team results as a boost. The margin of error just shrunk for Hartman.

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