Heisman watch 2021: Big Ten takes center stage with C.J. Stroud vs. Kenneth Walker III showdown

Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud and Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III meet in Columbus in a clash that will factor heavily if the Big Ten is to end its Heisman drought.

Just four remain.

You can make your case for a defensive player — see Alabama’s Will Anderson or Georgia’s Jordan Davis — or the poster boy of a team from outside the Power Five trying to beat the door down and get into the College Football Playoff — hello, Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder — but the reality of it all, and the history of it all, tell us that the number of Heisman Trophy challengers has dwindled down to four with three weeks to go.

Ole Miss’ Matt Corral, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker III or Alabama’s Bryce Young. One of them is all but certain to hoist the trophy come Dec. 11, but which one?

Things couldn’t feel more wide-open. Players are jockeying for position with less than a month to go. Everything is amplified. Any advantage, or a chance at one, sticks out. For the Big Ten, it couldn’t be more magnified, no greater advantage provided than Saturday’s showdown in Columbus, when Stroud and the fifth-ranked Buckeyes face Walker and No. 7 Michigan State.

At this point in the proceedings, we’re watching the most unsettled race since 2009, the year that provided the smallest margin of victory ever, when Alabama’s Mark Ingram edged out Stanford’s Toby Gerhart by 28 points. That vote also saw Ingram, Gerhart, Texas’ Colt McCoy, and Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh finish 1-2-3-4, respectively, all with more than 815 points, the one and only time the vote was spread that thin among the top four.

We could be headed for a similar finish, but where this season — and this meeting of Stroud and Walker stands out — is that it’s the truly rare late-season meeting of contenders that has the potential to sway votes, or even determine the eventual residency of this year’s award, like few games before it.

While last season, we had Alabama’s DeVonta Smith and Mac Jones and Florida’s Kyle Trask all on the same field in the SEC Championship Game, by that point Trask had played his way out of actually winning. In 2019, Ohio State’s Justin Fields, Chase Young and J.K. Dobbins shared the field with Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor in the Big Ten’s finale, but LSU’s Joe Burrow made sure that race was long over with. It was the same story for the same Big Ten squads in 2014 when Oregon’s Marcus Mariota left anything Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon and Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett a moot point.

In that aforementioned 2009 race, McCoy’s Longhorns and Suh’s Cornhuskers met for the Big 12 crown the day before votes were due, but with the glass ceiling for defenders, there wasn’t a true possibility we watched a duel that decided the winner. Go back to 1984 when Boston College’s Doug Flutie and Miami’s Bernie Kosar met on Nov. 23, a game that is remembered for Flutie’s Hail Mary. What it’s not remembered for is that in those days that was after the voting deadline.

Even the Nov. 23, 1972, clash of Big 8 running backs when eventual winner Johnny Rodgers and Nebraska faced Oklahoma’s Greg Pruitt on Nov. 23, 1972, in the rematch of the Game of the Century didn’t deliver. Rodgers had 53 total yards in that game; Pruitt was limited to seven yards with an ankle injury.

The one and only time we had the combination of an unsettled race and a showdown this late of legitimate candidates was in 1967 when UCLA’s Gary Beban and USC’s O.J. Simpson met Nov. 18, the Trojans winning 21-20 behind 177 yards on 30 carries from Simpson. Beban, who threw for a career-high 301 yards and two scores, would win the 246 points over Simpson for the award.

But in that Beban-Simpson season, the eventual vote included one other player — Purdue’s Leroy Keyes — had more than 136 points. The depth of this current race makes it basically unprecedented. Granted, what happens Saturday in Columbus isn’t likely to be the determining factor in the race — and Young, the Crimson Tide quarterback, is on track for a massive showdown of his own — but the stakes are exceedingly high at Ohio Stadium. It’s difficult to see either Big Ten challenger ultimately winning the Heisman without owning the stage at the other’s expense — and it’s seemingly more amplified for Walker with what lies (and what potentially lies) ahead.

The Spartans close out the regular season against fading Penn State, while Stroud and Ohio State still have the No. 6 Wolverines remaining. A date with No. 18 Wisconsin would be on the horizon for the winner Saturday at Ohio Stadium, but a dominant performance against the Buckeyes could be akin to a closing argument for Walker given the remaining schedule.

Making it the topper on his resume figures to be daunting.

Since the Sept. 11 loss to Oregon, the Buckeyes defense has allowed a mere 73.3 yards on the ground. In that eight-game stretch, no single runner has had more than the 71 yards Maryland’s Challen Faamatau had against them on Oct. 9.

On the flip side, Ohio State hasn’t faced any of the conference’s top nine rushers, and the best back it’s seen to date, Oregon’s since-injured CJ Verdell, ran wild for 161 yards. They’ve also yet to see a runner as productive as Walker, who took a Wolverines rush defense that was allowing 116.6 yards ahead of their Oct. 30 game and torched it to the tune of 197 yards and five scores.

Further complicating the task ahead for Walker, as he attempts to move into pole position for the Big Ten in this race, is this matchup plays more much into Stroud’s favor.

The Spartans rank dead-last in FBS in pass defense, giving up 329 yards per game, including 430 per game the last three games, with Purdue racking up 536. They’ll have to try and slow a Buckeyes quarterback who has thrown for 3,306 yards and 30 touchdowns in total and, has had fewer than 305 yards through the air in one of the last six games since he sat out Sept. 25 against Akron.

It’s the biggest contender vs. contender matchup left on the menu, but — and here is why it’s crucial Stroud and Walker show out with the focus squarely on their meeting — it’s not the biggest opportunity awaiting a Heisman candidate.

That figures to come Dec. 4 in Atlanta, with Young and the Crimson Tide on a collision course to face top-ranked Georgia. If the Big Ten’s candidates hope to trump anything Young can do against the nation’s best defense or leave a lasting impression should the Alabama quarterback get swallowed up by the Bulldogs, what Stroud and Walker do against each other will be a major part of that narrative.

All eyes will and should be on Columbus as the Big Ten makes it case to end its 15-year Heisman drought and keep the SEC from winning three straight.

Heisman race 2021: Who is heating up, who is cooling off?

Buy: Bryce Young, Alabama

Granted, it came against one of the nation’s worst passing defenses — a whopping 125th, at 291 yards per game, to be clear — but Young was still fantastic against New Mexico State. He set a program record in hitting on his first 13 passes, which included three of his five touchdowns, and was nearly perfect at 21-of-23 passing for 270 yards and no interceptions. The sophomore hasn’t thrown a pick in since Oct. 9, a span of 166 attempts. No Power Five quarterback has thrown for more scores at 33, and among those players, Young is third in pass efficiency (180.1) behind Oklahoma’s Caleb Williams (187.7) and Georgia’s Stetson Bennett (184.5). He figures to get a much stiffer test this week against No. 25 Arkansas, which is 24th vs. the pass (195.7 ypg), though it’s the same group that was burned for 417 yards and four touchdowns through the air by Mississippi State.

Sell: Matt Corral, Ole Miss

Corral’s Rebels took down No. 11 Texas A&M, but the biggest win to date on his resume wasn’t an eye-opening, electric performance. He was solid, throwing for 247 yards and a touchdown, but solid isn’t good enough at this point given what Corral’s resume is lacking. The difference between him and Stroud, Walker and Young is that Corral doesn’t have a ranked opponent remaining, with Tennessee State and Mississippi State to go. So, what is his defining performance? It hasn’t happened. He’s thrown for more than 300 yards just once since Sept. 18, which is also the last time Corral threw for more than two touchdowns. He’s still on the shortlist of contenders, but for now, he’s squarely behind the other three.

Buy: Kenny Pickett, Pitt

Outside of the top four, it’s Pickett that is gaining the most traction. With 346 yards and three touchdowns in Pitt’s 30-23 win over North Carolina this past weekend, the fifth-year senior has thrown for 1,281 yards and nine touchdowns over his last three games. He’s been held to under 300 yards once since Sept. 11, and is up to 32 touchdown passes, fourth in FBS and second to Young among Power Five players. While it’s not as heightened as Stroud-Walker, Pickett’s 21st-ranked Panthers are headed for an ACC Championship Game date with No. 12 Wake Forest and another intriguing second-tier candidate in quarterback Sam Hartman. If the conference is going to get a player at the ceremony, what happens in that potential matchup may well decide who it is.

Sell: Caleb Williams, Oklahoma

The freshman was building steam, but his campaign — and potentially Oklahoma’s College Football Playoff hopes — came to a grinding halt in a 27-14 loss to No. 13 Baylor. Williams was 10 of 19 passing for 146 yards and two interceptions on the day and wound up on the bench in the second half after hitting on eight of his first 14 attempts for two picks, replaced by the player he seized the job from, Spencer Rattler. It was stunning given the kind of performances Williams routinely delivered, averaging 328.5 yards of offense after taking over the offense, and he was coming off a 402-yard, six-touchdown day the last time out against Texas Tech. The deck was stacked against Williams as a true freshman, and one that had limited playing time early, but his setback in Waco ended his chances.

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