Here’s how Cincinnati can make history and make the College Football Playoff

The Cincinnati football program has a realistic shot at being the first Group of Five team to make the College Football Playoff.

Now at 11-0 (7-0) on the season, the Cincinnati football team is on the precipice of doing something unprecedented.

The Cincinnati Bearcats entered Week 12 as the No. 5 team in the country in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. Though they were one of three undefeated teams left in Division I, playing at the Group of Five level has them on the outside looking in at playoff inclusion for the time being. While they will be in the Big 12 in a few years, they want to make the playoff now.

What is it going to take for the Bearcats to do the unthinkable and make the College Football Playoff as a Group of Five program?

Cincinnati football: Bearcats’ unique pathway into the College Football Playoff

The simplest thing the Bearcats can do is win out. They just got a strong AAC victory over an eight-win SMU team. While beating the East Carolina Pirates next week will not do much to move them up in the rankings, beating presumably an 11-win Houston Cougars team in the AAC Championship will do the trick. After that, 13-0 Cincinnati needs one of three things to happen.

Those three are as follows: The Big Ten champion needs to have two losses, the Oregon Ducks need to lose another game or the Alabama Crimson Tide need to lose second game. The really cool part is any and all of these can happen over the course of the next few weeks. With a 13-0 record likely to happen, what are the chances of each of these three other scenarios actually occurring?

The most likely to happen is for Oregon to lose another game. The Ducks have a tough game on Saturday night at the Utah Utes. They could totally drop that game in Salt Lake. While Oregon is favored over in-state rival Oregon State, the Ducks could conceivably lose to the Beavers. And if they don’t lose to the Utes in Utah, the Ducks might fall to them again in the Pac-12 title bout.

The next most likely scenario to happen is for Alabama to drop a second game. Though they should beat Arkansas, the Hogs are much improved under Sam Pittman. While the Crimson Tide are a massive favorite over the Auburn Tigers, this year’s edition of the Iron Bowl is down on The Plains. Jordan-Hare Stadium is one of the hardest places to play in the entire country for a reason.

And of course, Alabama has to beat No. 1 Georgia in the 2021 SEC Championship game in Atlanta.

Of the three outcomes Cincinnati needs, seeing the Big Ten get a two-loss champion is the least likely. That would mean the Big Ten West winner would have to do something that has never happened before and beat the Big Ten East winner in Indianapolis. Ohio State is not losing to a Wisconsin, but Michigan could if the Wolverines do end up beating the Buckeyes next weekend.

From there, the ACC and the Big 12 will not have a champion more deserving to get in over an undefeated Cincinnati. Having the head-to-head victory over the one-loss Notre Dame Fighting Irish is an undeniable feather in the Bearcats’ cap. Though Cincinnati would only be getting in as the No. 4 seed to likely face Georgia in the Orange Bowl, their pathway into the dance is palpable.

Cincinnati has to win out and root hard for teams like Georgia and Utah to win big in November.

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