College football expert picks Week 12: Picks against the spread for every Top 25 game

College football expert picks against the spread for every Week 12 game featuring a Top 25 team as we also bet the totals and check our season-long tally.

It’s the home stretch for the 2021 season with only two weeks remaining, meaning it’s also the home stretch for our college football expert picks against the spread. Between Week 12 that we’re about to tackle and the always-important rivalry week, we’ve got a big slate on our hands to try and better or maintain a decent overall record.

Based on the rest of the season, things got flipped on their head this past Saturday. We went 10-7-3 against the spread, taking us to 94-110-4 in that department. But our totals well ran dry with a dismal 6-14 in that area, though our season-long effort is still 111-93-4 there. All told, we sit at 205-203-8 on the season.

Only two more weeks left in the regular season, which means we have to finish strong — starting in Week 12 with our latest college football expert picks and bets for every Top 25 game.

Note: All odds are via WynnBET. For more betting info and content, visit BetSided.

College football expert picks against the spread for Week 12 Top 25 matchups

Tennessee State at 25 Mississippi State (-44.0) – Under 56.0

One of several games in the Top 25 against vastly inferior opponents where they spread is huge, Mississippi State and Mike Leach’s offense should be able to move the ball almost at will and then hit cruise control to make this a relatively easy cover.

Memphis at 24 Houston (-9.5) – Over 59.0 (Played Friday Night)

Even if I don’t trust Houston a ton, I trusted Memphis less and it ultimately paid off. My lack of trust in the Tigers should’ve bled into the total play, though, as their 13 points really eliminated any chance of the over hitting for this game.

3 Oregon (+3.0) at 23 Utah – Over 58.5

If there’s one thing we know about Oregon, it’s that the Ducks have gotten up for big games under Mario Cristobal. That’s kind of just been their M.O. to this point. I think we see more of that on Saturday as they are motivated by being underdogs and make a statement outright win.

UAB at 22 UTSA (-4.0) – Over 53.5

Even though it didn’t necessarily work out, I continue my stretch of just blindly betting the Roadrunners, especially if they’re playing at home. UAB has been a good team but it feels like perpetual disrespect continues for an unbeaten UTSA squad.

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21 Arkansas (+20.5) at 2 Alabama – Under 58.5

Barry Odom has shown Alabama that he can cause them some problems and this is a less prolific Crimson Tide team than we’ve seen in recent years, even if they’re still awesome. I think Arkansas definitely loses but they keep it within striking distance throughout the 60 minutes.

Syracuse at 20 NC State (-11.5) – Over 49.5

Where this line is set both for the spread and total scares me tremendously. Regardless, my gut says NC State gets rolling and the over hits but, based on the numbers, this would probably be a stay-away from me if I was at the sportsbook window.

19 San Diego State at UNLV (+11) – Under 41.0 (Played Friday Night)

San Diego State has not proven they should be double-digit favorites against anyone so taking the points with UNLV was the smart play because of that. Still not sure how an Aztecs game hit the over, though.

Virginia at 18 Pittsburgh (-15.0) – Under 66.5

Brennan Armstrong is clearly not right — if he plays — for Virginia and the Cavaliers aren’t remotely the same team without him. Pitt should win this game pretty easily but, then again, the Panthers tend to make that exact type of game scarier than it should be.

Illinois (+12.5) at 17 Iowa – Over 38.5

Iowa could be playing a high school from down the street and I would likely take the points if it’s in double digits. The Hawkeyes just aren’t built to win like that, especially against an Illinois team that, if nothing else, can run the ball pretty well.

Prairie View A&M at 16 Texas A&M (-41.0) – Over 51.0

Who knows how to pick games like this but, after last week, give me the Aggies to hit the over by themselves as Jimbo Fisher wants a bounce-back statement — even against a far lesser team — to get their end of season back on track.

Nebraska (+10.0) at 15 Wisconsin – Under 43.5

Despite how Wisconsin’s offense has rolled of late, the fact of the matter is the Badgers have played bad defenses. That’s not what Nebraska is and I see these two teams duking it out in a game that has very, very few points, which makes the 10-point spread favorable for me.

14 BYU (-20.0) at Georgia Southern – Over 57.5

It feels like years since we’ve seen BYU but this team has the offense to roll anyone, especially a Georgia Southern team that doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. This should be a welcome-back party for the Cougars, even if the long road game does scare me slightly.

Iowa State at 13 Oklahoma (-3.5) – Under 59.0

Backing Oklahoma did not work out well for me last week but we’re going back to the well. In the simplest terms, they should beat Iowa State. The question at this point is whether or not the Sooners are capable of doing what they should. With a wiindy game, though, the under is my favorite play.

Vanderbilt (+36.0) at 12 Ole Miss – Under 65.5

Ole Miss could feasibly hit the over by themselves and cover easily — but I don’t think that’s what they want to do. I see the Rebels looking ahead to the Egg Bowl, getting a quick lead, then packing it in to get out of Week 12 with any kind of W and then move on.

11 Baylor (+1.5) at Kansas State – Under 49.5

While Kansas State is a fine team and Manhattan can be a tough, tough place to play, this line just looks wrong to me. Baylor has proven throughout the year that they can beat anyone and, though a hangover game is possible, the Bears are still the better bet here.

10 Wake Forest (+4.0) at Clemson – Under 57.0

Understanding that Clemson has started to look a bit better as of late, Wake Forest has looked like the better team in this matchup all year. While it’s risky with the Deacs on the road, my inclination is that they’ll have just enough offense for the Tigers to be unable to match.

9 Oklahoma State (-10.0) at Texas Tech – Under 56.0

Yes, Lubbock is a place where weird things can happen and Iowa State just lost to the Red Raiders last week. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, is playing some of the best defense in the country. My bet is they come out and dominate that way, managing enough offense to get the cover and easily keep the under.

Georgia Tech at 8 Notre Dame (-17.5) – Under 58.0

With quarterback woes hurting Georgia Tech’s offense right now and Notre Dame looking like the best version of this team, there wasn’t much thought here. The Irish should win comfortably but I don’t foresee the Yellow Jackets managing much of anything on offense.

7 Michigan State (+19.0) at 4 Ohio State – Over 69.5

My inclination is that Ohio State is going to win this game. However, the Buckeyes have failed to cover ahead of The Game quite often in recent years. Against a quality Spartans offense and a defense that can tighten up in the red zone, give me Michigan State to cover.

6 Michigan (-15.0) at Maryland – Over 57.5 

Yes, this is a look-ahead spot for the Wolverines as Ohio State is looming but Michigan has been consistent winning games they’re supposed to under Jim Harbaugh and, on top of that, this might be his best team yet. The Terps will make a little noise, but not as much as UM.

SMU (+10.0) at 5 Cincinnati – Over 65.5

There’s a legitimate chance SMU could hand Cincinnati its first loss of the season, so a 10-point spread is far too high in my mind. And if we’re going that way, I’d expect plenty of points, hence the lean to the over.

Charleston Southern at 1 Georgia (-50.5) – Over 58.5

It’s a ton of points and you could make an argument, as you can for other teams, that Georgia is just packing it in. However, with two relatively easy games before the SEC Championship, I think Kirby Smart tries to avoid getting into a lull and doesn’t let off the gas.

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