C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young? How each can win Heisman in duel to the finish

The Alabama and Ohio State quarterbacks have separated themselves from the field with two key games remaining, but who will win the Heisman between Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud?

The underwhelming has turned into anything but, as one of the more lackluster Heisman Trophy races in recent memory has set itself up for a frenetic duel over these next two weeks between Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud.

Week 12 provided a new level of clarity, narrowing the list of contenders down to those two quarterbacks for college football’s highest award. Young set a single-game Crimson Tide record with 559 passing yards; Stroud threw six touchdown passes against Michigan State, doing so while would-be contender Kenneth Walker III had his worst game of the season.

This could lead to a vote that rivals Mark Ingram’s 28-point win over Toby Gerhart in 2009 for the smallest margin of victory ever, or at least be along the lines of the closest finish since, when Robert Griffin III was a 280-point winner over Andrew Luck in 2011. With two weeks to go, it’s a razor-thin margin between Stroud and Young, and with both having some massive matchups ahead, these are the paths to each leaving Times Square with the stiff-armed statue.

How C.J. Stroud can upset Bryce Young and win the Heisman

For Stroud, it’s all about riding momentum, and hoping Young comes up short in the biggest game of the season.

There’s arguably no bigger rivalry in college football than Ohio State-Michigan. They call it “The Game” for a reason, and Saturday in Ann Arbor, the 117th meeting — when the No. 2 Buckeyes face the sixth-ranked Wolverines with the Big Ten East title on the line — it will be the highest they’ve been ranked since 2016 (No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Michigan that year) and the sixth time since 1977 they both come in ranked sixth or higher.

Big-time rivalry. Big-time stage. Big-time stakes.

It couldn’t come at a more opportune time for Stroud, who has averaged 357.8 yards and four touchdown passes since sitting out against Akron on Sept. 25. The redshirt freshman has thrown for no less than 305 yards the past four games and gone over the 400-yard mark twice. If he has that level of success against the Wolverines, it’s going to be a top-line item of the resume for the Power Five leader in touchdown passes in October (15) and who ranks second in November (13).

The Wolverines will represent a major step up over Michigan State and its 130th-ranked pass defense, which Stroud just carved up to the tune of 432 yards and a ridiculous 91.4 percent completion percentage. Michigan comes in eighth against the pass, yielding 178.4 yards per game, and hasn’t allowed more than 223 yards since Sept. 11 and a combined two touchdowns through the air the past five games, while also snagging four interceptions in that span.

Owning The Game and all that comes with that storied stage is a big step toward strengthening his case, and Stroud can follow that a week later in the Big Ten Championship Game with another prime opportunity in what is on track to be a matchup vs. Wisconsin, owners of the nation’s No. 1 defense.

Star there, and Stroud would have effectively navigated a stretch of four straight Top 25 opponents, including one of the sport’s best rivalries, won a conference title and been the driving force in his team reaching the College Football Playoff.

It’s an absolute gauntlet, and every bit Heisman, but is that all enough to overshadow the chance Young has in the final day before votes are due?

What Bryce Young needs to hold off C.J. Stroud to win the Heisman

Simply put, if he’s capable of doing what has seemed implausible, it may be impossible to deny Young the trophy. Come close to pulling it off, well, and we’re going to be in for a very interesting finish.

Young and Alabama are going to be spending Thanksgiving weekend in a rivalry that is elevated by only its name this season. Auburn is a mess, facing its longest losing streak since 2012 with three straight defeats, and its defense had been burned for 415 yards and six touchdowns through the air by Mississippi State during that skid.

Expect Young to come back for seconds and thirds in the Iron Bowl, a chance to build off that Crimson Tide-record passing day he just had vs. Arkansas. For those wondering, the Alabama record against Auburn is 484 yards by Scott Hunter in 1969.

At 6-5, the Tigers may not be the quality of opponent that Stroud will have in Michigan, but Young, who has thrown for 270 or more yards in each of the past six games, could put up far gaudier numbers — and he’s going to need them.

The defining game for the quarterback, Alabama, this Heisman race, and potentially the CFB comes on Dec. 4 in Atlanta when the Crimson Tide face top-ranked Georgia for the SEC crown.

The Bulldogs defense has allowed a paltry 157.8 yards per game through the air and five touchdowns on the season. They had missteps against Tennessee, which totaled 332 yards, but Georgia’s 95.0 efficiency rating leads Power Five and they’ve racked up 12 interceptions.

If Alabama is going to pull off this upset, it figures that Young, the major conference leader with 38 touchdowns, who has an FBS-best 210.6 rating this month, will be a major reason why. As dominant as Georgia’s defense has looked, an argument could be made that if the Alabama quarterback puts together a strong performance, win or lose, it’s only going to help his case (sounds a lot like the two-loss Alabama in the CFP argument, doesn’t it?).

That could lead to a heated debate over who should win, and Young can avoid any of that in taming Georgia’s defense, though it speaks to the opportunity he has that success in a loss wouldn’t completely spoil his chances.

Stroud has been put up insane numbers of late, and while Young has too, the latter has the undeniably bigger stage and a margin for error within it, which could be why he ultimately gives Alabama a second straight Heisman.

Heisman race 2021: Who can join Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud in New York?

Buy: Jordan Davis, DL Georgia

No one’s going to confuse him with Charles Woodson, but Davis had his offensive turn a la the only primarily defensive player to win the award, as the hulking lineman bulldozed his way into the end zone on a 1-yard touchdown against Charleston Southern. The past eight ceremonies have included two defensive players as finalists in Ohio State’s Chase Young in 2019 and Michigan’s Jabrill Peppers in 2016, but the smart money is on Davis, as the key cog in the defining unit of the season in that Georgia D, becoming the latest.

Sell: Kenneth Walker III, Michigan State

Things couldn’t have gone much worse for Walker in the biggest game of the season. Ohio State held him to a mere 25 yards on six carries, which was 122 yards below his average. The Spartans’ CFP hopes went up in flames in that blowout loss and Walker lost the FBS rushing lead to Central Michigan’s Lew Nichols III, who has 1,516 yards to Walker’s 1,498 yards. Walker’s regular-season finale comes against Penn State, which yielded 180 yards on the ground vs. Wisconsin, 161 against Ohio State and 144 to Michigan. There’s still a chance the nation’s best running back puts together a big enough of a final glimpse to get to New York, but it’s no longer the sure thing it seemed for weeks.

Buy: Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati

Not only did Ridder help the Bearcats reach 11-0 with a win over SMU and do so with his most efficient game since the season opener (217.0 rating), but he became the third player this season to have touchdowns passing, rushing, and receiving in the same game. Ridder had scoring strikes of 53, 17 and 17 yards, a rushing touchdown of 40 yards and hauled in a five-yard pass from Jordan Jones for his first career receiving score. With blemishes on so many challengers’ resumes, Ridder continues to help Cincinnati make its playoff case has him in line for the first invite to the ceremony for a non-Power 5 player since Northern Illinois’ Jordan Lynch in 2013.

Sell: Sam Hartman, Wake Forest

Much like Ridder, the foundation of Hartman’s campaign was in his team’s surprising success at a school that doesn’t traditionally produce candidates. The Demon Deacons remain in first place in the ACC Atlantic and can clinch a spot in the championship game with a win Saturday at Boston College, but the second loss in three games hurts Hartman. He wasn’t bad in falling to Clemson, throwing for 312 yards, but he has thrown six interceptions over the last three games, giving him more than any Power Five quarterback in the month.

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