CFP rankings: What the committee got right, what they got wrong ahead of rivalry week
The fourth CFP rankings are out and, as we break down the new Top 25, we dissect what the College Football Playoff committee got right and wrong.
Before rivalry week even had the opportunity to further shake up the CFP rankings and the Top 25, the penultimate week of the regular season gave the College Football Playoff committee quite a bit to ponder — though some things deserved more thought than others.
With blowout losses, both the Oregon Ducks and Michigan State Spartans were bound to free-fall in the latest Top 25 CFP rankings. However, the bigger questions were about whether or not Ohio State, who handled Sparty so dominantly, would jump Alabama, a team that had its back against the wall against Arkansas. Beyond that, would Cincinnati finally jump into the top four or would the anti-Group of 5 bias continue with Michigan possibly jumping ahead of them.
There were few certainties left for the rankings but the committee gave us our answers. Naturally, we’re going to pick them apart with an assessment of what they got right and what they got wrong. But before that, let’s take a look at the CFP rankings themselves.
CFP rankings Week 12 release: College Football Playoff committee reveals fourth Top 25
- Georgia Bulldogs
- Ohio State Buckeyes
- Alabama Crimson Tide
- Cincinnati Bearcats
- Michigan Wolverines
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Oklahoma State Cowboys
- Baylor Bears
- Ole Miss Rebels
- Oklahoma Sooners
- Oregon Ducks
- Michigan State Spartans
- BYU Cougars
- Wisconsin Badgers
- Texas A&M Aggies
- Iowa Hawkeyes
- Pittsburgh Panthers
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons
- Utah Utes
- NC State Wolfpact
- San Diego State Aztecs
- UTSA Roadrunners
- Clemson Tigers
- Houston Cougars
- Arkansas Razorbacks
As was predictable, we saw Oregon and Michigan State drop out of the top 10 of the rankings following their awful losses. However, there were some bigger surprises at the top of the rankings, far more than what we’ve seen in recent weeks.
The biggest one is, obviously, Ohio State using the win over MSU to leapfrog ahead of Alabama and then Cincinnati finally cracking the top four. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is knocking on the door at No. 6, ahead of all three teams in the Big 12 at this point.
With all that in mind, let’s break down how the committee fared with these rankings.
CFP rankings: What College Football Playoff committee got right in fourth rankings
Ohio State jumping Alabama – We might start a riot with this one but it’s 100 percent what should’ve happened in the next-to-last rankings of the regular season, especially based on what happened this past week.
Alabama struggling against Arkansas (and even looking back at their two-point win over a Florida team that just fired its head coach) is indicative of what the Crimson Tide are. The talent is undeniable but they haven’t lived up to it consistently. Contrarily, Ohio State stumbled slightly out of the gates but has been a proverbial Death Star of late, which Michigan State felt the wrath of on Saturday. The Buckeyes are the better team right now and that should matter.
Cincinnati finally cracking the top 4 – Look, Cincinnati should’ve been a top-four team from the start of these CFP rankings this season but, thanks to some help around the country, they’re finally in.
There isn’t much to say other than the Bearcats came into the year as a top-ranked team, beat Notre Dame, took care of business without losing and now is finally getting the respect and reward from the committee that they deserve.
Oregon, Michigan State getting severely punished – There was always a real possibility that the Ducks and Spartans were going to lose to Utah and Ohio State, respectively. With that loss, both teams were going to drop out of the top of the rankings.
However, the way that each team lost — i.e. getting their doors blown off — warranted a strong reaction from the committee and that’s what we got. Fans clearly saw two teams that were incapable of competing with the best teams in the country, especially on a consistent basis. It was something that the rankings needed to reflect this week and they did, falling out of the top 10.
Georgia is unquestionably at the top – This might be like beating a dead horse at this point but it’s 100 percent worth noting again. Because the Dawgs haven’t necessarily played the toughest SEC schedule in the country, there is an avenue by which the committee could nitpick them enough to throw their status as the obvious No. 1 team in college football into question. With how forcefully dominant Georgia has been, though, it’s good to see the committee not even consider that.
Clemson getting into the Top 25 – Clemson’s chances of making the playoff have long been gone thanks to their early-season struggles and the three losses they have on the year.
With that said, the Tigers have been playing at a much higher level over the past few weeks, most recently taking down Wake Forest in convincing fashion. Despite the unmet expectations overall for the 2021 season, this is clearly one of the 25 best teams in college football right now, so it’s rewarding to see Dabo Swinney’s group crack the rankings.
CFP rankings: What College Football Playoff committee got wrong in fourth rankings
Notre Dame coming in at No. 6 – Understanding that Notre Dame has certainly hit its stride over the past few weeks, the Fighting Irish shouldn’t be getting the overall respect that they are right now.
While many people talked about Cincinnati needing to past their biggest test against Notre Dame, the Irish are on the flip side of that and failed their test against a Group of 5 team. Without playing a conference schedule, there’s no way a reasonable person would look at this team and think they should be at No. 6 in the rankings.
Oklahoma State sitting well behind at No. 7 – This is the reason I have as big of a problem with Notre Dame being at No. 6. For me, Oklahoma State has been the more consistent and obviously quality team in comparison to the Irish.
The big question that this raises for me is if the Cowboys winning against rival Oklahoma in Bedlam on Saturday night will be enough to push them past the Irish in the rankings or if the ensuing Big 12 Championship Game would be enough as well. It feels as if the committee is trying to carve an easy path for Notre Dame, which isn’t the right thing to see by my estimation.
UTSA should file a lawsuit – Meep meep, everyone. The Roadrunners remain undefeated. The other two unbeaten teams in the country are in the top four. UTSA, meanwhile, is outside the top 20 and one spot ahead of three-loss Clemson. Sure, they aren’t an actual playoff team but it’s increasingly frustrating to see the overall lack of respect.
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