College football expert picks: ATS picks for every conference championship game

College football expert picks against the spread for every Top 25 Week 13 game with rivalry week in full swing featuring Ohio State-Michigan and much more.

Conference championship games are upon us and we have some monstrous contests for our college football expert picks against the spread to be made. Georgia vs. Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, Michigan vs. Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game, and much more should capture the imaginations of fans and bettors alike. And we’re here to guide you through the latter part of that equation, as we have been all season.

If nothing else, we were consistent throughout rivalry week, going 12-11 both against the spread and betting the totals as well. That put us at 120-130-4 against the spread and 134-116-4 on point totals for a record of 254-246-8 on the year. Now, we try to take all we’ve learned from that and apply it to these conference championship matchups.

Previously with our college football expert picks against the spread, we’ve just gone down the Top 25 slate from bottom to top of the rankings. For the conference championship games, however, we’re going in chronological order to really get into the fun.

Note: All odds are via WynnBET. For more betting info and content, visit BetSided.

College football expert picks against the spread for conference championship games

Conference-USA Championship Game: Western Kentucky (-3.0) vs. UTSA – Under 73.0 (Friday)

Despite the fact that the Roadrunners were undefeated heading into the last week of the regular season, they’ve been regressing down the stretch. Now, with a quarterback injury, the high-powered Western Kentucky offense will have its day — but the UTSA commitment to the run game will slow it down enough for the under to hit.

Pac-12 Championship Game: Oregon vs. Utah (-2.5) – Over 58.0 (Friday)

There’s almost no chance this game plays out like the previous matchup, which was a rout in favor of the Utes. Oregon will be better prepared but I still think the Utah defense is good enough to keep Anthony Brown at bay in key moments and get a solid win. With that said, we should see more balanced scoring to help hit the over.

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MAC Championship Game: Kent State (-3.0) vs. Northern Illinois – Under 74.0

Northern Illinois has been a team that, by the numbers, just isn’t as good as their record would indicate. They’ve won a ton of flukish one-score games to get here. Kent State is the better team and, though these teams combined for 100+ points in their first meeting, I think the stakes keep the scoring down quite a bit more.

Big 12 Championship Game: Baylor (+5.0) vs. Oklahoma State – Over 46.5

Understanding that defense will be played at a high level in this game — a change of pace for the Big 12 — I think we’ll see enough points to hit over a low total. As for the game, I just think these teams are closely matched and that Dave Aranda will have enough answers to keep this game within a field goal.

Mountain West Championship Game: Utah State (+5.5) vs. San Diego State – Over 49.5

We’ve seen that San Diego State thrives with defense and special teams, but the sneaky truth is that they can be had through the air. While the Utah State passing offense isn’t consistent, it has explosive potential. I see the Aggies playing their best game and scoring at a clip the Aztecs just can’t hang with.

Sun Belt Championship Game: Appalachian State (-2.5) vs. Louisiana – Under 53.0

Despite the fact that the Ragin’ Cajuns won handily the first time these teams met, Appalachian State just looks like the better team on paper. Moreover, their ability to run the ball can attack a Louisiana weakness, allowing them to control the game, slowing the pace for the under and giving the Mountaineers the win.

SEC Championship Game: Georgia (-6.5) vs. Alabama – Under 49.5

Yes, Nick Saban has owned Kirby Smart. The fact of the matter, though, is I don’t think it matters. This iteration of Alabama is overrated and will get dominated by Georgia in the trenches, just as the Bulldogs have done to everyone all season. It may not be a certified blowout but it will be a comfortable margin for the Dawgs and Smart to get over the hump.

AAC Championship Game: Houston vs. Cincinnati (-10.5) – Over 53.5

Frankly, I don’t like either side in this game. Cincinnati has been erratic and Houston has been rolling but against one of the worst strengths of schedule in college football. I’m taking the Bearcats because they’re the better team, though, and the over is appealing with the potential for some Houston garbage time scoring with Cincy up big.

Big Ten Championship Game: Iowa vs. Michigan (-11.0) – Under 43.5

The only thing that scares me about Michigan is any emotional hangover from the Ohio State game. All told, though, I don’t see a way in which Iowa’s offense gets almost anything done in this game. The Wolverines should wholly dominate both sides of the ball in something like a 30-7 blowout that punches their playoff ticket.

ACC Championship Game: Wake Forest (+3.0) vs. Pittsburgh – Over 71.5

Even though I always have an under lean in conference championship games, that’s not the case here. This is going to be a back-and-forth shootout that should be a thrill. In that type of matchup, I’m always going to take the underdog because of the variance such a situation creates. Pitt might be the overall better team, but give me Wake to complete their dream season.

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