Final projected CFP rankings: Will Alabama or Michigan get No. 1 spot? How far will Georgia fall?

The final projected CFP rankings have a new No. 1 team after Alabama upset Georgia in the SEC Championship, Michigan makes its first appearance and Cincinnati makes College Football Playoff history as the first Group of Five team to make it.

For the first time in 92 games, Alabama was an underdog when the Crimson Tide took on No. 1 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. But as so many of those 92 games went, Alabama was the winner, giving Georgia its first loss of the season and cementing the Heisman Trophy for quarterback Bryce Young.

Georgia head coach Kirby Smart falls to 0-4 vs. his former boss, Nick Saban, who got his team motivated by feeding them a heaping helping of rat poison that was dished out by the media all week.

Young threw for an SEC Championship Game record 421 yards and three touchdowns while adding a rushing touchdown at the end of the first half that really served as the first nail in the coffin for Georgia.

It didn’t end the game, but it clinched a spot in the playoff for Alabama to play so well for a half that even if they ended up blowing the second half (they didn’t), it meant the SEC was getting two teams in the College Football Playoff.

For the last few weeks, the conversation centered around how Alabama could/would make the playoff with two losses. The media was already chalking up a loss for the Crimson Tide against big, bad Georgia and their defense that allowed a nice 6.9 points per game this season.

Throw that scenario out the window as Alabama is likely to have the No. 1 spot in the final CFP rankings for the third time in the last four seasons. Will Alabama repeat as national champions?

That question won’t be answered for a few weeks, but the question about who the four teams will make up the College Football Playoff will be answered around noon ET on ESPN on Sunday.

If I was one of the members of the College Football Playoff committee, I think it’s going to be one of the easiest years to pick the four teams. This is how I think the CFP rankings will look when ESPN reveals them to the nation.

Final CFP rankings projection: Alabama takes the top spot

1. Alabama

Alabama came into the SEC Championship Game as the No. 3 team but after the manner in which they dominated No. 1 Georgia, they vault to the top spot. Georgia hadn’t allowed more than 17 points in a single game all year but allowed 24 to Alabama in the first half alone before finishing with 41.

Young ripped apart the historically-great defense and there was never a moment after midway through the second quarter where the game was in question. Will Anderson is the best defender in the nation and Saban is the best coach to ever do it. That’s a heck of a trio for any team to contend with in the playoff. There were definitely times when Alabama looked vulnerable this year, but they won closer-than-expected games vs. Florida, Arkansas, LSU and Auburn. Alabama is peaking at the best time.

2. Michigan

Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson may be a Heisman finalist and has been unblockable all year, but especially the last month of the year. The Michigan defense has put the clamps on opposing offenses, especially in the red zone as they did against Iowa. Facing Georgia in the semifinals won’t provide the offensive test they saw from Ohio State’s skill players so they are capable of making it to the National Championship Game, if the passing game shows up.

Quarterback Cade McNamara and a dash of J.J. McCarthy are working efficiently under center but the lack of big plays will cost them. The passing game will need to do a lot better than it showed vs. Iowa to win a playoff game. With Georgia looming, that’s a tall task, but they should try to attempt to mirror some of the concepts Alabama did. Granted, Michigan doesn’t have Alabama’s personnel but they have to get something because it’ll be too much pressure on the offensive line and the run game otherwise.

That said, the offensive line and the run game was the overriding reason for Michigan’s win against Ohio State and much of their success this season. Outside of a 67-yard touchdown from Blake Corum in the first quarter, the ground game was held in check vs. Iowa. The running back tandem of Hassan Haskins and Corum is going to have to bring it vs. Jordan Davis, Nakobe Dean and the Georgia defense. The Iowa defense was a good primer for what they’ll see from the Dawgs.

This team is dangerous and they really want to win for their head coach Jim Harbaugh.

3. Georgia

The dream of an undefeated season and SEC championship is dashed, but Georgia still has a chance to win the program’s first national championship since 1980. The road to get there, however, is just going to be a little bit tougher. Instead of facing Cincinnati in the semifinal, they’ll play Michigan. Sure, if you’re going to win the national title you have to play and beat good teams. But you’d rather take the easier path.

Not that playing Cincinnati is going to be an easy path, but give Georgia truth serum and they’d say they want to play Cincinnati instead of this Michigan team that beat the crap out of Ohio State (and is a few minutes away from being undefeated themselves if not for blowing a 16-point lead vs. Michigan State).

Plus, Cincinnati doesn’t have a pass-rusher like Hutchinson on their team. Nevertheless, this team is nasty and capable. The defense got some humble pie and will be motivated in the playoff.

Can the offense with Stetson Bennett make enough explosive plays though?

And will George Pickens be that much healthier with 27 days until Georgia’s next game?

He should be and that could be the difference in losing the semifinal game or winning it all.

4. Cincinnati

History will be made with Cincinnati making the playoff. This marks the first time a Group of Five team made the four-team playoff field. This is a win for teams like UCF that went undefeated in 2017 and 2018 but were left out by the playoff committee.

Head coach Luke Fickell has built a monster of a program and has an NFL quarterback in Desmond Ridder. This isn’t a plucky underdog team. This is a team that nearly beat Georgia in their bowl game. That same Georgia team that went undefeated this season until running into Alabama in the SEC Championship. They can go toe-to-toe with anyone.

They aren’t scared of anyone.

The defense is a force and running back Jerome Ford had 187 yards and two touchdowns to beat Houston for the American Athletic Conference Championship. Cincinnati going into Notre Dame and handing the Fighting Irish their only loss of the year may not have been enough to get the Bearcats in but after Oklahoma State lost to Baylor in the Big 12 Championship Game, the door was wide open for Cincinnati to make history.

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