Ravens must help Lamar Jackson, evaluating rookie coaches and more
As the stretch run looms, Lamar Jackson is tasked with carrying the Ravens through a gauntlet as well as overcoming Baltimore’s porous defense.
Lamar Jackson may need to be superman.
Jackson is going against one of the NFL’s most brutal remaining schedules, and must overcome the Ravens’ own issues if he’s going to lead Baltimore to the promised land this season.
Just six weeks ago, Jackson was hailed as an MVP frontrunner, having shown marked improvement as a passer from the pocket, dramatically better downfield accuracy, while being just as dangerous as ever as a runner amid the Ravens’ 5-1 start.
However, Jackson and the Ravens’ regression over the past month and a half has been equally dramatic and alarming.
“It’s pretty clear Lamar is experiencing a different cadence from opposing defenses,” renowned quarterback trainer Quincy Avery tells FanSided. “He’s seeing a lot more zero [coverage], which is causing him to speed things up. I’m not sure the Ravens, as their offense is currently constructed, is providing him enough answers.”
Sage Rosenfels, who played quarterback from 2001-12 with five NFL teams, tell FanSided he sees similar issues.
“I see a lot of teams calling Cover 0 blitzes in obvious passing situations. And it doesn’t seem like Baltimore has audibles or quick answers for their quarterback.”
Since making easy work of Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers, seemingly taking the baton and sprinting to the top of the AFC hierarchy in Week 6, Jackson has completed 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,345 yards with eight touchdowns to 10 interceptions while adding only 421 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, but fumbling once.
Baltimore hasn’t scored 20 or more points since a Week 9 overtime win over the Vikings.
“From my vantage point,” an AFC scout tells FanSided. “Lamar is trying to do too much. When he settles down and realizes he has (Mark) Andrews, (Marquise) Brown, (Sammy) Watkins to help, they might be able to turn things around.”
Now, while waiting for Jackson to find the trust in his weapons, a true gauntlet remains for the 8-4 Ravens.
After a failed two-point conversion in the waning seconds against Pittsburgh dealt Baltimore their fourth loss, the Ravens now face the NFL’s second-toughest remaining strength of schedule as they cling to a one-game lead in the AFC North.
Jackson can’t be expected to do it all and do it alone for the Ravens, but he might have to if this team is going to make its way to Los Angeles.
The Ravens’ defense, which is suddenly allowing 22.8 points per game over the past six weeks, lost All-Pro cornerback Marlon Humphrey for the season with a torn pectoral.
Baltimore has been walking on a razor’s edge for much of the season, but with linebacker Pernell McPhee, Derek Wolfe, and now Humphrey joining Marcus Peters with long-term injuries, it might prove Herculean for the Ravens to rely on the defense to survive the stretch run against the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns and Steelers.
“I think the Ravens are a well-coached team, but Lamar’s supporting cast is not very good,” Avery says. “The more you have to play hero-ball, the harder it is. It’s going to be very difficult for him.”
Which brings us back to the weight Jackson must shoulder.
“I think that is one of the leading factors in quarterbacks not being successful, is them trying to do more than is necessary,” Avery says. “It puts quarterbacks in a position to hold onto the ball a little longer, push the football downfield a little bit more, and when that happens, you’re bound to make mistakes. It puts you in a bad spot.”
On Sunday, Jackson was pressured by the Steelers on 14.9 percent of his dropbacks and was sacked a whopping seven times by T.J. Watt and Co.
This week, it’s a trip to Cleveland. If the Ravens are going to survive this stretch it is incumbent on offensive coordinator Greg Roman to create opportunities for Jackson to thrive at the same level he did in the early stages of this season.
“Lamar’s receivers are tasked with the ability to win when they get zero-blitzed, and he doesn’t have a great group of receivers,” Avery said. “The [coaching staff] has to create natural picks and natural rubs to get these guys open, when they do see pressure.
“Once they do, and once they are able to at least locate that, it will give Lamar a mental break. Once that happens, we’ll see a better version of the Ravens. I don’t think this is who they’re going to be throughout the conclusion of the season.”
How the 2021 head-coach class measures up
Forgive me for stating the obvious, but few decisions are more vital or impactful to the future trajectory of an NFL franchise than who is hired as head coach.
Hit a coaching hire out of the park — as the Kansas City Chiefs did with Andy Reid, Pittsburgh Steelers did with Mike Tomlin, Baltimore Ravens did with John Harbaugh, and of course the New England Patriots with Bill Belichick over the past two decades, and an organization can be set up for sustained success and multiple runs at bringing home the Lombardi Trophy.
However, the coaching landscape is littered with the tombstones of failures such as Pat Shurmur, Anthony Lynn, Todd Bowles and others, who to various faults of their own and the circumstances they were put in, were unable to leave their mark and were fired within four years with minimal postseason success.
Last year’s coaching carousel saw three first-time head coaching hires in the five vacancies that were filled; Matt Rhule in Carolina, Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland, and Joe Judge with the New York Giants.
Those rookie head coaches boast a combined 37-47 record, with Stefanski’s postseason victory the lone playoff win for a group with a .440 winning percentage.
Rhule has already fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady this season, Judge is very much on the hot seat as the losses mount in New York, and Stefanski might be facing a critical question when it comes to the future of quarterback Baker Mayfield, which could impact his own trajectory.
By contrast, how does this year’s new hires stack up?
It’s not easy task, orchestrating a quick turnaround, which is the position most first-time head coaches find themselves.
“Just like a rookie quarterback, so much of a coach’s fortunes is based on organizational success or failure,” former NFL Executive of The Year Randy Mueller tells FanSided.
Mueller shared his thoughts on the initial returns on rookie coaches Arthur Smith, Brandon Staley, Nick Sirianni, Dan Campbell, Robert Saleh, Urban Meyer, and David Culley, who through the first 13 weeks of their tenures boast a combined .306 winning percentage.
Randy Mueller’s initial thoughts on each of the NFL’s rookie head coaches:
Brandon Staley – Los Angeles Chargers (7-5)
“Clearly, Staley has the most to work with and the least amount of chaos around him.”
Arthur Smith – Atlanta Falcons (5-7)
“He seems solid with what he has to work with.”
Nick Sirianni – Philadelphia Eagles (6-7)
“Sirianni is going to be fine.”
Dan Campbell – Detroit Lions (1-10-10)
“Dan is learning on the job, and you can see his guys play really hard for him.”
David Culley – Houston Texans (2-10)
“David has no chance. He has a terrible team, and the entire organization is a mess.”
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Mueller, who is the CEO of MuellerFootball.com, saved some of his most biting criticism for Robert Saleh and Urban Meyer, whose teams have failed to improve and perhaps worst of all don’t seem to be getting through to their locker rooms.
“Saleh and Meyer have not done anything to make a difference on Sundays yet,” Mueller says. “Players see and know this. That’s very concerning. And neither is supplemented by front office acumen.”
Meyer’s maiden voyage as Jaguars head coach has been marred by the controversy surrounding him skipping the team flight home from a Thursday night loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, and being spotted out in a bar with a woman who isn’t his wife grinding on him two nights later. Jacksonville, despite drafting generational quarterback prospect Trevor Lawrence No. 1 overall, sits at 2-10, boasting the NFL’s 31st-ranked scoring offense, averaging just 15 points per game.
Meanwhile, Saleh has quickly found out the value of talent on defense, as his Jets have been historically bad on the side of the football he specializes in, surrendering 30.6 points per game.
It will be fascinating to see of Saleh survives this season, after the Jets invested the No. 2 overall pick in quarterback Zach Wilson but have no identity on either side of the ball. Or if Meyer is the Jaguars’ head coach next September, though the fact that the majority of marquee college vacancies have already been quickly filled makes it seem unlikely he would return to the college ranks, where he saw nearly unprecedented sustained success en route to a 187-32 record with three national championships.
The body of work is limited, but it is anything but a lock that Culley, Saleh, and Meyer are back on the Texans’, Jets’ or Jaguars’ sidelines for a second season in 2022.
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Quotable
"“Let’s not give more credit than we need to give credit to Bill Belichick in this one.”"
– Bills head coach Sean McDermott, following Buffalo’s 14-10 loss to the Patriots on Monday night
Monday night’s clash between the Bills and Patriots was destined to be one of this season’s biggest games, but the beautifully miserable conditions; 55 MPH wind gusts and some lake-effect snow off Lake Erie, for good measure, made the contest an instant classic.
Contrary to McDermott’s postgame assertion, Belichick deserves immense credit for his malleability, given the conditions, to take the air completely out of the football by having Mac Jones attempt only three passes.
New England knew they were the far more physical team, that the game would be decided in the trenches, where the Patriots had a decided advantage, and while not even threatening to pass, still finished the game averaging 4.8 yards per carry, on 46 rushing attempts.
By rolling into the Buffalo snowglobe and bulldozing the Bills, the Patriots left Western New York looking like the most complete team in the AFC.
New England now owns the NFL’s No. 2 ranked defense — second to Buffalo — and the league’s stingiest defense, allowing just 15.4 points per game.
The Patriots’ blueprint is a familiar, tried and true one for postseason success; play dominant defense, run the ball efficiently to control and dicate the game, and limit turnovers or mistakes.
New England did all of that in spades against the Bills, who now at 7-5 with losses to Tennessee, New England, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh might face an uphill climb just to make the postseason. Throw in the league’s 16th-toughest remaining schedule, with a game against Tom Brady’s Buccaneers and a rematch with the Patriots still looming and desperation should be high in Buffalo.
Meanwhile, the Patriots look like the team to beat and one that any AFC playoff team should fear if they line up on the same bracket.
Final thought
For nearly 15 years one quarterback rivalry stood above the rest and largely told the story of an era in the NFL.
Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning was appointment viewing and their matchups often set the tone of the AFC Playoff picture, and in four contests decided the AFC’s representative on Super Bowl Sunday.
We just might be experiencing the exposition of the NFL’s next great quarterback rivalry.
On Sunday afternoon, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow met for the first time since being chosen in the top 10 of the 2020 NFL Draft, in a game with major AFC playoff implications that evoked memories of those Brady-Manning classics and felt like the beginning of something truly special.
Herbert, chosen five spots after the Bengals made Burrow the No. 1 overall selection, got the better of Cincinnati on Sunday and carried the Chargers on his back by completing 26-of-35 passes for 317 yards and three scores in a 41-22 statement win.
But, Burrow who appeared to dislocate the pinky on his throwing hand in the first half, hung tough and kept Cincinnati in the game until the Chargers’ defense tightened the clamps in the fourth quarter.
Despite a barrage of pressure, multiple drops by his receivers and the aforementioned injury, Burrow passed for 300 yards with one touchdown, one interception, and added a rushing score as well.
With head coach Brandon Staley, offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, and a supporting cast that includes Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and others, the Chargers have built the infrastructure around Herbert — arguably already a top-five quarterback in this league, to push for a Super Bowl this season.
Meanwhile, Burrow has one of the game’s premier receiving corps; Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgens, and Tyler Boyd at this disposal, and will for years to come.
The Chargers might be closer to winning a Super Bowl this season, but Burrow’s connection with head coach Zac Taylor and a division that is ripe for the taking give the Bengals plenty of reason to be optimistic about the future.
Round 1 went to Herbert, but it’s easy to envision this matchup becoming this decade’s NFL titlefight for years to come.