How can Chiefs clinch No. 1 seed after locking up AFC West?

The Kansas City Chiefs are the first team in the AFC to have clinched a postseason berth.

With a dominating win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Kansas City Chiefs have clinched yet another AFC West division crown.

Though five teams over in the NFC clinched a postseason berth before them, Kansas City is in fantastic position to earn the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. If they get to 13-4, the Chiefs will be the No. 1 seed. However, they do not hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the AFC South leader and projected No. 2 seed Tennessee Titans. So how does Kansas City get the No. 1 overall seed?

Here is an outline for how the AFC playoffs can potentially run through Arrowhead Stadium.

How Kansas City Chiefs can earn the No. 1 overall seed after winning AFC West

The good news for the Chiefs is they are guaranteed a top-four seed in the AFC, no matter what, because they won their division. Unfortunately, the Chiefs do not hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with Tennessee (10-5) or the Buffalo Bills (9-6), and they have to play the Cincinnati Bengals (9-6). Potential losses to Cincinnati and the Denver Broncos could complicate things.

Should Kansas City split the pair between Cincinnati and Denver to finish 12-5, the Chiefs would then need the Titans to drop their final two games vs. the Miami Dolphins and at the Houston Texans, so they’d finish 11-6 and the head-to-head tiebreaker would not come into effect. If Kansas City were to crater to 11-6 and lose their final two games, the Tennessee must lose both.

If the Chiefs somehow lose both to the Bengals and the Broncos, this is where it gets weird. They would need Cincinnati to lose to the Cleveland Browns in Week 18 to avoid losing the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Bengals at 11-6. An additional loss over the next two weeks by Buffalo, the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots would do the Chiefs a world of good, too.

Ultimately, a 12th win by the Chiefs over the next two weeks eliminates everyone but the Titans from having the opportunity at the No. 1 seed. A 13th win by the Chiefs eliminates Tennessee from the top seed entirely, as would a sixth loss by the Titans coupled with a Kansas City win. The Chiefs can have the AFC locked up with a Week 17 win over Cincinnati and a Titans loss to Miami.

13 wins is a guarantee, 12 wins is promising, but 11 wins welcomes pure unadulterated chaos.