Bills-Chiefs headline Divisionals, 49ers knock off Cowboys and more
After two dominant showings in the Wild Card round, the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs are primed for this NFL season’s best game yet.
On Saturday, the Buffalo Bills played a perfect football game. The Kansas City Chiefs damn near matched it.
Now, the two meet for the third time in two years, this time at Arrowhead Stadium.
At stake? A return trip to the AFC Championship Game.
For football fans, this game is why you watch the sport. The weather forecast is for a clear, 31-degree night with little wind. Both teams enter very healthy, with the only notable absence being Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White, lost on Thanksgiving to a torn ACL.
In Buffalo, the story this weekend was Josh Allen. Allen, who compiled an astounding 98.5 QBR in Saturday’s 47-17 exorcism against the New England Patriots, threw for 308 yards and five touchdowns on 12.3 yards per attempt. It was his finest moment in a young career dotted with many, lifting the Bills to a playoff win and a rematch with Kansas City.
Only 24 hours later, it was Patrick Mahomes taking his turn. After a bad red-zone interception and a shocking 7-0 deficit to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Mahomes went berserk. The former MVP threw five touchdowns in the span of 11 minutes and 31 seconds, the fastest span for that many passing scores in NFL postseason history by almost 14 full minutes.
When all was finished, the Chiefs won 42-21 and Mahomes went for 404 yards and five touchdowns of his own on 10.4 YPA. It was a statement by both Kansas City and its wunderkind quarterback to not forget about the two-time defending AFC champs.
In total, the Bills racked up 482 total yards of offense in their win while the Chiefs had 478, each team easily eclipsing 40 points. Both defenses were phenomenal as well, with the scores of both games not being representative of the blowouts they were. And when the combined margin victory is 51 points, that’s something.
Now everything distills into the best game this weekend.
The Chiefs are attempting to reach — and potentially host — their fourth consecutive AFC Championship Game. The Bills are trying to make it a second straight trip and do so by beating the preeminent team in the conference. In the current landscape, there’s no bigger victory than going into Arrowhead and beating Kansas City. Buffalo did this in Week 5 in a 38-20 win on Sunday Night Football … but this isn’t Week 5.
It’s the rare moment where two great teams will both seek revenge. The Bills are trying to pay Kansas City back for humbling them in the AFC title game last year, with the Chiefs winning 38-24. As for Mahomes and Co., they were humiliated on national television in October, turning the ball over four times in a game which was over by halftime.
Whoever wins will either travel to take on the Tennessee Titans next week, or host the upstart Cincinnati Bengals. Either way, the victor in Kansas City could certainly be beat the following week. Yet if we’re being truthful, this affair has the feel of a heavyweight prize fight. While the Titans and Bengals are playing the opener of Divisional Weekend on Saturday afternoon, it’s the Chiefs and Bills in the traditional headliner spot of Sunday night.
The Chiefs. The Bills. Two contenders which figure to be Super Bowl contenders for a decade to come.
On Sunday, they meet after each played almost to perfection, hoping they haven’t yet painted their masterpieces.
Power rankings
Top 10 Divisional round appearances by franchise (post AFL-NFL merger)
1. Pittsburgh Steelers – 25
2. Dallas Cowboys – 24
T2. San Francisco 49ers – 24
4. Minnesota Vikings – 21
T5. Green Bay Packers – 19
T5. New England Patriots – 19
T7. Indianapolis Colts – 17
T7. Miami Dolphins – 17
T9. Denver Broncos – 16
T9. Las Vegas Raiders – 16
T9. Los Angeles Rams – 16
Quotable
"“Extraordinarily disappointed. Very disappointed. Disappointed for our fans. …This is quite a letdown.”"
– Cowboys owner Jerry Jones on Dallas’ 23-17 loss to the 49ers
For Dallas, it’s now the 26th straight season where it has failed to reach the NFC Championship Game. And, in a year where the NFC East was comically bad and the Cowboys were essentially gifted a half-dozen wins, to falter in the Wild Card game is a brutal outcome.
Podcast
Random stat
In Super Bowl history, there’s never been a matchup without at least one team enjoying a first-round bye.
Info learned this week
1. Cowboys, 49ers should both be wondering about their head coaches
San Francisco is rightfully elated. Dallas has to be crushed.
Regardless of who lost, both the 49ers and Cowboys’ fans were going to screaming about their respective coaches.
Certainly, San Francisco’s Kyle Shanahan has endured his share of postseason criticism, ranging from his role in the Atlanta Falcons’ catastrophic meltdown in Super Bowl LI to the Niners blowing a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl LIV. On Sunday, San Francisco was conservative in multiple spots including at 10-0 with a 4th and 1 at Dallas’ 22-yard line with 9:40 remaining in the second quarter. The decision allowed a reeling Cowboys team to get off the field.
With 2:50 left in regulation and holding a 23-17 lead, Shanahan once again faced 4th and 1 at Dallas’ 49-yard line. He elected to take a delay of game, with a first down all but finishing off the Cowboys.
Yet Shanahan was the far better coach with the superior decision-making in his matchup.
Mike McCarthy has a ring but has long been the source of ire for his team’s fanbase. You saw why. Dallas, the most-penalized team in football, took 14 of them against the Niners. Plus, this sequence, which defies all logic:
Then there was the final minute, in which Dallas ran a draw play in an apparent attempt to get closer for a better shot at a touchdown … only to run out of time. It’s an unforgivable mistake, and one McCarthy adamantly defended in the postgame.
While offensive coordinator Kellen Moore made the call, McCarthy is his boss, and therefore signs off on each decision. Running with 14 seconds and no timeouts — when the accepted belief is needing 17 seconds to run a play and spike the ball — is asinine. It deserves massive scrutiny.
Repeatedly, the Cowboys beat themselves in a game that leaves everyone with more questions than answers about their future. Dak Prescott is talented, but is he a franchise-level talent? Going 23-of-43 for 254 yards with a touchdown and interception isn’t great. Of course, the coaching staff didn’t help Prescott much, refusing to call some quicker throws with San Francisco’s front teeing off.
All told, a disaster for Dallas. An escape for the Niners.
2. Eagles’ embarrassment portends offseason of angst for Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts will help Philadelphia talk radio light up the lines for months.
After their 31-15 loss in the NFC Wild Card round to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Eagles enter their most interesting offseason in years. Armed with three first-round picks (Nos. 15, 16 and 19) and a question at quarterback, what does general manger Howie Roseman decide to do?
Hurts is cheap, talented and has upside. He also went 23-of-42 for 258 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions against Tampa Bay, with a good chunk of the yardage and both scores coming in garbage time. This performance is buttressed against 11 games to end the regular season in which Hurts only eclipsed 250 passing yards once, and was held under 200 yards on eight occasions.
So which route does Roseman choose? Stay with Hurts and use a trio of top picks to build round him — perhaps with a few defensive upgrades and another weapon — or potentially trade draft capital to aggressively pursue Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson or even Aaron Rodgers?
It’s going to be the seminal question in Philadelphia for months to come.
3. Bengals’ patience pays off in first playoff win in 31 years
Look around the NFL’s coaching carousel.
The Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars are both looking for head coaches after one-and-done hirings. The New York Giants moved on after two years with Joe Judge. More than ever, coaches are getting less time to turn around woebegone franchises.
Luckily for the Bengals, they showed patience and belief in Zac Taylor. After Taylor went 6-25-1 over his first two years, ownership stayed the course. On Saturday, the Bengals beat the Raiders, 26-19, giving the franchise its first playoff win since Jan. 1991.
After decades in the abyss, Cincinnati appears to have a contender built for the long haul. General manager Duke Tobin drafted well, bringing in stars such as receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, quarterback Joe Burrow and linebacker Logan Wilson over the past two years.
The Bengals have also opened the wallet — something they rarely did until 2020 — signing edge rusher Trey Hendrickson to a four-year, $60 million pact this offseason. Hendrickson notched 14 sacks this season, earning Pro Bowl honors.
Cincinnati has finally dedicated itself to winning through spending money and seeing plans through. The result has the Bengals into the Divisional Round, and perhaps further in the coming weeks.
4. Raiders lose, and now what of Carr and Basaccia’s future in Las Vegas?
On the flip side of the Bengals’ ecstasy is the Raiders’ agony.
Derek Carr finally captained a playoff game after slugging through 127 regular-season starts, only to fall nine yards short in The Jungle. With the offseason here for the Raiders, reports have already surfaced regarding Carr’s future, stating his workplace in 2022 is partially tied to the next head coach.
With one year and $19.8 million left on his deal, Carr will certainly be wanting a long-term extension near the $40 million per year range. If Las Vegas general manager Mike Mayock balks, he could either force Carr to play or sit without pay or trade him for draft picks. At 31 years old in March, Carr should have plenty of good football remaining, but is he worth an upper-tier price?
The guess here: the Raiders play hardball with Carr and hope he plays well, then apply the franchise tag as the salary cap is scheduled to skyrocket in 2023.
As for interim coach Rich Basaccia, it’s an easier picture to see. Basaccia did a terrific job, taking over for a disgraced coach in Jon Gruden and going 7-5 before losing to Cincinnati in the playoffs.
However, this weekend’s loss was ugly from a coaching standpoint. Carr was strip-sacked by Trey Hendrickson when reserve tight end Foster Moreau was asked to block him without help. The Raiders also had a pair of timeouts blown because of substitution issues, and were late getting to the line of scrimmage on a multitude of occasions.
For owner Mark Davis, does Bisaccia move his needle enough? This is a man, and a family, long on loving big names. Gruden is the ultimate example. Will Davis decide to give Basaccia a short-term extension and give him another chance, or try and lure a big name to Sin City?
5. Patriots’ frenzied free agency came up short, and now what?
Nobody spent more money in free agency last winter than the Patriots.
Uncharacteristically, New England went wild by spending a league-high $163 million on contracts including tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, corner Jalen Mills, edge rusher Matthew Judon, receivers Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor, defensive tackle Davon Godchaux and linebacker Kyle Van Noy among others.
The Patriots ultimately won two more games (in an elongated schedule) and were blown out 47-17 in the Wild Card round.
From here, the road isn’t clear. New England doesn’t have a ton of spending money, only projected at $21.5 million in cap space. This is before signing its draft class and likely trying to retain star corner J.C. Jackson.
Despite signing two receivers and a pair of tight ends, New England still needs to find a few weapons for quarterback Mac Jones. Defensively, there’s a clear need to upgrade opposite Judon. The Patriots will need to find a litany of answers in the draft, despite picking towards the bad end of each round.
New England spent in March hoping to see huge returns in January. Instead, it was humiliated and sent home.
Gambler’s game
Tease the AFC games up. Over at WynnBet, you can tease the Bills to +8.5 and Cincinnati to +9. That’s the right move in games that shouldn’t be blowouts. Buy yourselves a few points and roll.
Two cents
Deshaun Watson loomed large over this past offseason. He’s poised to do so again.
According to multiple reports dating back nine months, Watson has no interest in paying for the Texans. This is supposedly true because of both the front office and ownership, and although Houston fired head coach David Culley, no movement happened above him.
In short, from Watson’s standpoint, it stands to reason nothing has changed.
However, it’s also been widely speculated Watson wanted to play with the Dolphins largely because head coach Brian Flores was present. Since Flores was fired last week, Jordan Schultz has reported the two want to be a pairing for a new team, specifically the New York Giants.
Here’s the rub: there’s no way of guaranteeing that.
Flores, should he be rehired this cycle, will likely come on board within the next 10 days in time for the Senior Bowl. Watson, still entangled with 22 civil suits accusing him of sexual misconduct, is still in limbo both legally and otherwise. With the trade deadline long passed, Watson can’t officially be traded to another club until the new league year begins on March 16.
Watson has some power because of his no-trade clause, but even there, it’s murky. Say general manager Nick Caserio plays this out and doesn’t trade Watson over the next few months, the team which hired Flores needs to make a move.
If it’s the Giants, they have a huge need and two first-round picks. Would they trade for Russell Wilson? Would they draft a quarterback in the first 50 overall selections? If Watson is either continuing to deal with suits against him or a team unwilling to give into his demands, New York can’t wait hoping things work out.
Watson is understandably exhausted with the Texans, but he has far less power than many make it out to be. Ultimately, Houston controls his rights and until his legal picture is cleared up, it’s near impossible to trade him anyway.
Inside the league
The NFL needs to do better hiring Black head coaches.
As of this column, Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin is the only Black man in such a position. Despite the league’s efforts in regards to this problem by instituting the Rooney Rule, the Bill Walsh Diversity Coaching Fellowship and other measures, the results have been shockingly bad.
Many in the NFL believe there’s a clear issue, but what’s the answer? Is it a better pipeline of Black coaches being established to create more candidates? Is it requiring two minority candidates per opening? Is it a question of racism among those making the hires?
Regardless the myriad reasons, it’s an embarrassment. The NFL’s players are overwhelmingly Black, and yet the coaches, general managers and owners are almost all white. To believe there aren’t qualified candidates in minority circles for the league’s best jobs is egregious.
Without being in the buildings, it’s impossible to have a definitive answer on what the biggest road blocks are for these men in each situation. Whatever they are, it’s a problem and one the NFL desperately needs to get fixed.
History lesson
Of the 15 teams who scored at least 40 points in the Wild Card round since 1990, they’re 3-12 in the following round. Only twice did those teams eclipse 30 points in the Divisionals, with the entire group averaging 17.4 points.
Parting shot
One more to go, and then onto the Divisionals. For Matthew Stafford, it’s the biggest moment of his career.
Stafford has played 13 seasons between the Rams and Detroit Lions. This year resulted in his first division title and thus his inaugural home playoff game. In three trips with the Lions, 0-3.
The former No. 1 overall pick has thrown for 49,995 yards and 323 touchdowns in his career. Few quarterbacks have ever been more prolific. Yet if Stafford and his Rams lose as favorites to the Arizona Cardinals on Monday night, he’ll only further be branded as an empty-stat king without single defining victory.
Furthermore, Los Angeles has to make a postseason run or correctly be scrutinized into oblivion. Rams general manager Les Snead has traded away every first-round pick since selecting quarterback Jared Goff in 2016, and doesn’t have one this year either. If Los Angeles mortgaged its future to lose at home to the Cardinals in the Wild Card round, that’s a brutal look.
For Stafford and the Rams, much more than a playoff win is on the line.