Super Bowl 56 preview, Tom Brady retirement and more

Super Bowl 56 is upon us, and with the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams facing off, there’s no shortage of storylines and subplots to watch.

Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow. Zac Taylor and Sean McVay.

The Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams, and the four most important characters in the game with so many intersecting narratives.

For Stafford and Burrow, it’s about aiming for the first championship in what could be many.

While Burrow is seven years Stafford’s junior, the latter is looking at a bad conference about to get worse with the expected retirement of Tom Brady and the potential movement of Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. For Burrow, he’s in a loaded group with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert. In his second season, he and the Bengals navigated them all, and stand a win away from the franchise’s first title.

If not now, when for Burrow? The belief is at 25 years old, titles are in the offing, but the future is always fickle. For Stafford, a dozen years toiling with the Detroit Lions certainly leaves him desperate to grasp the moment. Will the decade-plus of agony compared to Burrow’s meteoric rise help the veteran?

Then there’s Taylor and McVay. The two remain incredibly close after working together in Los Angeles in 2017 and ’18, before Taylor left to take over the Bengals. Through two tough years, Taylor hung in, and now is headed to the Super Bowl.

Despite the two keeping a regular dialogue, expect the phones to be quiet these two weeks after the congratulatory texts.

When the Rams were staggered in early December, I spoke with Taylor about McVay for a piece detailing Los Angeles’ annual swoons, and he ardently defended his mentor.

"“I worked there two years I don’t know anybody I’ve worked with who would say something bad about Sean,” Taylor said. “He’s one of the best people I’ve been around, it was the greatest experience. … He’s a special human being.”"

Now, the two meet on the sport’s biggest stage, one friend trying to stop the other from realizing a dream if only to realize it himself.

The Bengals weren’t supposed to be here. They were largely picked for last place in the AFC North, lagging behind their interstate rivals among others.

The Rams needed to be here. After trading a pair fo first-round picks and Jared Goff for Stafford, general manager Les Snead was going for broke. At the trade deadline, Snead once again bet big with a pair of Day 2 picks going to the Denver Broncos for edge rusher Von Miller. All of it looked like a disaster at 7-4. Now, a win away from total vindication.

In two weeks, the Rams and Bengals battle for the Lombardi Trophy.

Two quarterbacks desperate to make their mark. Two coaches, friendly always, foes facing off.

Power rankings

Top 10 Super Bowls of all time

1. Super Bowl XXV – Giants 20, Bills 19
2. Super Bowl XLIX – Patriots 28, Seahawks 24
3. Super Bowl XLII – Giants 17, Patriots 14
4. Super Bowl XXXIV – Rams 23, Titans 16
5. Super Bowl XXIII – 49ers 20, Bengals 16
6. Super Bowl XLIII – Steelers 27, Cardinals 23
7. Super Bowl XXXVI – Patriots 20, Rams 17
8. Super Bowl LI – Patriots 34, Falcons 28 (OT)
9. Super Bowl XXXVIII – Patriots 32, Panthers 29
10. Super Bowl LIV – Chiefs 31, 49ers 20

Quotable

"“The journey has been exhilarating, fueled by a spirit of competition. Yet the time has come to clean out my locker, hang up my cleats and continue to be all I can be to my wife and children. I retire from football a truly grateful man.”– Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger on retiring after 18 NFL seasons"

Well, at least one legendary quarterback officially hung up his spikes this week.

Roethlisberger walked away following a tremendous career, spanning two Super Bowl wins, three appearances, six Pro Bowls, and 64,088 passing yards, ranking fifth all-time. The Steelers’ great had an indelible career which will certainly land him in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, quite possibly on the first ballot.

Did Roethlisberger hold on for a few years too many? Yes. Will that be remembered in a decade? No. Ultimately, his football legacy will be one of hanging tough in the pocket, delivering clutch throws time and again, and being a winner leading Pittsburgh to 165 regular-season wins and never sustaining a losing record.

We talk about how we may never see the things Tom Brady did ever again, but some of the things Roethlisberger accomplished may be hard to best as well.

Podcast

Random stat

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers existed for 44 years before signing Tom Brady. They won six playoff games. In two years with him, they won five, including a Super Bowl.

Info learned this week

1. Tom Brady retires, maybe, but not really over the weekend

Soon, Tom Brady will retire. We think. But not yet.

On Saturday, the football world was thrown into chaos when ESPN’s Adam Schefter and Jeff Darlington reported Tom Brady was retiring after 22 seasons. Then, slowly, one denial after the next emerged, with nothing coming from the man himself in any form.

While it appears almost certain Brady’s incredible career is over — and once there’s a formal announcement, he’ll have top billing in this space — nothing has been officially decided. As of now, Brady remains the Buccaneers’ starting quarterback, even if only for a short while.

Assuming Brady retires, a few quick thoughts:

• He walks away the greatest winner in NFL history. Maybe not the best (Jerry Rice, Lawrence Taylor, and Jim Brown want a word, among others), but the winningest. No dispute.
• Nobody got more out of less. Brady was never the fastest. Never had the biggest arm. Wasn’t the high draft pick. Yet he was utterly brilliant for more than two decades.
• The NFC South might be the worst division of all time in 2022. The Carolina Panthers are rebuilding, the Atlanta Falcons have huge issues across their roster and the New Orleans Saints are without Sean Payton, a starting quarterback and have a surplus of $70 million in cap charges.

If Brady walks away now, he has accomplished everything possible. We’ll revisit this in great detail once his decision is final, but those are the thoughts for now.

2. Mahomes’ meltdown will live in Kansas City along with his triumphs

The Chiefs were the overwhelming Super Bowl favorites entering the weekend. They had a 21-3 lead at the first half’s two-minute warning. They were leading 21-10 with five seconds left, holding no timeouts at Cincinnati’s 1-yard line.

From there, Mahomes fell apart.

After an impossibly ill-advised completion behind the scrimmage line to Tyreek Hill that ended the half without more points, Mahomes came out of the break and promptly went 8-of-18 for 55 yards and two interceptions. By any standard, it was hideous. By Mahomes’, it was downright appalling.

For Kansas City, it’s a loss which will stick with it. The Chiefs got a terrific defensive performance, held Joe Burrow in check, and still lost an 18-point lead. It’s hard to fathom. Now, they enter an offseason where left tackle Orlando Brown and safety Tyrann Mathieu are free agents, alongside edge rusher Melvin Ingram and corner Charvarius Ward.

Kansas City will almost certainly be Super Bowl favorites again in a few weeks, but this one got away. The Chiefs slayed the Bills in a miracle finish and became the de facto No. 1 seed. They needed only to win two more games in which they were clear favorites, and fell apart.

For all the chatter about a dynasty, Kansas City has too often come up small in big moments.

On Sunday, it starts with Mahomes.

3. 49ers fought, but now head into offseason with Garoppolo trade looming

Another blown lead, and now a changing of the guard in San Francisco.

Leading 17-7 in the fourth quarter, the 49ers allowed three consecutive scoring drives while failing to mount any response. While head coach Kyle Shanahan will get deserved blame, much will also be heaped on the man about to be jettisoned out of town.

With the Niners rushing for 50 yards on 20 attempts, Jimmy Garoppolo was thrust to the fore. He responded by going 16-of-30 for 232 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, the latter being the final pass he’ll throw in this uniform. The question now is which colors are next?

After trading multiple first-round picks to move up for Trey Lance, San Francisco general manager John Lynch needs to recoup some assets with Garoppolo. Although he’s rife with shortcomings, Garoppolo is 30 years old and entering the final year of his affordable ($27M cap hit) contract. There will be suitors, led perhaps by Washington, three-quarters of the NFC South and the teams who miss out on Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers.

But for now, an opportunity is missed. Garoppolo and the 49ers were minutes away from their second Super Bowl berth in three years.

Now, a new era for both is coming.

4. Head coach hiring cycle dragging before Senior Bowl

Last week, I wrote most teams with a head-caching vacancy will shortly fill them. Not so fast.

Historically, teams want their coaching staff and front offices settled before beginning the draft process in Mobile this week. Surprisingly, only the Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears, and New York Giants hired their next coaches, leaving six teams (Minnesota Vikings, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, Miami Dolphins, and New Orleans Saints) without a point man.

Why is this taking so long? A theory:

Although teams could start interviewing candidates during the regular season for the first time, only Jacksonville did so as it had an opening following Urban Meyer’s ouster. With so many franchises looking for new coaches, and very few names being hot, each team has interviewed a bevy of candidates. This has led to long processes and little consensus within buildings.

As for the hires, the Giants appear to have hit a home run. It should be said nobody truly knows until we see an assistant running the entire operation, but Brian Daboll worked under Nick Saban and Bill Belichick before taking over as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator and turning Josh Allen from near-bust to barely mortal.

If anybody is going to fix Daniel Jones — or tutor his replacement — Daboll is the guy.

In Denver, Nathaniel Hackett is an intriguing hire. He comes from the Packers, who of course could be jettisoning quarterback Aaron Rodgers this offseason. Should Rodgers get dealt, the Broncos are the overwhelming favorite with Hackett and four top-75 picks in the upcoming draft.

One note on Hackett, though. He didn’t run the offense in Green Bay and when he was in charge of offenses with the Bills and Jaguars, the units were underwhelming. Of course, the quarterback play was as well, but it’s a fair concern to have should Rodgers not land in Denver.

5. Giants stance on Deshaun Watson helps other suitors

John Mara couldn’t have been clearer. The Giants aren’t interested in pursuing Deshaun Watson.

Watson, who is facing nearly two dozen sexual assault civil suits, is expected to be traded this offseason away from the Texans. New York, armed with two first-round picks and a need for a new quarterback in the estimation of many, was seen as a potential landing spot. No more.

With Mara’s declaration, the Giants are safely out of the mix. But who, then, is there? The Dolphins reportedly fired former head coach Brian Flores in part because of his insistence on landing Watson. Owner Stephen Ross has said he won’t be involved in whether the team goes after the embattled quarterback.

While Miami remains an option, the ousting of Flores coupled with Ross’ public indifference at least cools the rumors there. Watson, who has a no-trade clause, might have to consider options beyond South Beach, which was the clear frontrunner for his talents only months ago.

The teams remaining which make the most sense are the Philadelphia Eagles, Cleveland Browns, and Broncos. If Watson was willing to be dealt to these places, the Eagles are first in line. If they want to move on from Jalen Hurts, they have a trio of first-round choices. Denver is next with the aforementioned war chest of four picks in the top 75. Cleveland could send over a package anchored by Baker Mayfield and then be creative from there, but it would also include picks galore.

Watson’s situation has bared monitoring for almost a year now, and it continues to do so.

Gambler’s game

We’ll get into fun props next week. For now, the game itself. The Rams are favored by four points over the Bengals at WynnBet for Super Bowl LVI.

Take Los Angeles to win and cover. Love and respect Burrow, but the Rams’ pass rush will be the story of the game.

Two cents

The Pro Bowl is a disaster of a product. It should have been scrapped years ago, and tomorrow is the next-best choice.

It’s an exhibition game nobody wants to play in, largely because there’s no upside. The only reason it exists is for a little TV money and incentives in player’s contracts. The former can easily be made up by having a robust skills competition (check out the old-school Quarterback Challenge). The latter can stay the same by simply naming a Pro Bowl team without having a game along with it.

Once the league moved the game from Honolulu, it ceased to have any intrigue at all. At least Hawaii was a great setting and a fun atmosphere for players to bring their families. With due respect to Orlando, not the same.

The NFL is almost flawless in the way it presents the sport, turning what should be boring events (Draft, schedule release) into must-see TV. Even the league can figure out how to make the Pro Bowl worth watching for five minutes. That ought to say it all.

Inside the league

Sean Payton decided to step down as the Saints head coach last week. Many believe he’ll land with the Dallas Cowboys come 2023.

Payton, who worked as an offensive assistant from 2003-05 with the Cowboys under Bill Parcells,  made clear during his Wednesday press conference that he’s not retiring, but stepping back. The expectation in some league circles is he’ll reset for a year, and if Mike McCarthy doesn’t go much deeper in the playoffs, he could be swapped out.

Anybody who attends league events understands how close Payton and Cowboys owner Jerry Jones are. It’s no secret, and if Dallas disappoints in McCarthy’s third year, look for Jones to buy out the remainder of his contract and bring in Payton, who would require compensation to the Saints as his deal currently has three more years on it.

At 59 years old, Payton could conceivably have another decade in him. Smart money says it’ll be in Dallas.

History lesson

Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, the biggest spread in the Super Bowl was 18.5 points, with the 49ers laying the number against the San Diego Chargers. San Francisco covered with ease, winning 49-26 despite some garbage-time scores.

Incredibly, there have only been nine such lines in said span. The first five were all covered, with the sixth being a push. The last three times? The underdog won outright.

Parting shot

The Green Bay Packers should trade Aaron Rodgers. Before free agency.

Last year, I strongly pushed back on the notion Green Bay had to move him and was without leverage. While that remains true, this offseason presents different circumstances.

The Packers are more than $40 million over the cap and have a slew of significant free agents in linebacker DeVondre Campbell, receiver Davante Adams, tight end Robert Tonyan, corner Jaire Alexander and others. Additionally, edge rushers Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith are almost certain cap casualties.

In short, it’s time to accept reality. If Green Bay couldn’t win a Super Bowl over the last two years, they’re not winning one moving forward with a lesser cast.

And for that reason, along with their cap situation, the Packers should move on.

Rodgers is likely going to win his second straight MVP. He’s turning 39 years old but remains elite. Green Bay has an obvious partner in the Broncos, who hired Nathaniel Hackett away from it last week. Denver needs a quarterback and has four top-75 picks in the upcoming draft.

The Packers should ask for three first-round picks, two second-round choices and a premier player. And the Broncos should immediately say yes. For Denver, being without a top-tier quarterback in a division including Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert is football suicide.

Finally, trading Rodgers allows the Packers to reset. They can let move of the aforementioned free agents leave if they like, or sign them to help support third-year quarterback Jordan Love. Love, with two season plus a fifth-year option remaining on his rookie deal, can now be seen for what he is. Either the future, or a wasted pick. If it’s the former, great. If it’s the latter, the Packers would have a boatload of ammunition to find the answer.

Rodgers has enjoyed a tremendous run with the Packers. Now they need to maximize their asset and send him packing.