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2022 NCAA Tournament Bracketology: No. 1 seeds, bubble watch entering February

By Mike Phillips

LOS ANGELES, CA - JANUARY 25: Cody Riley #2 of the UCLA Bruins is defended by Christian Koloko #35 of the Arizona Wildcats as he drives to the basket during the game at UCLA Pauley Pavilion on January 25, 2022 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - JANUARY 25: Cody Riley #2 of the UCLA Bruins is defended by Christian Koloko #35 of the Arizona Wildcats as he drives to the basket during the game at UCLA Pauley Pavilion on January 25, 2022 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images) /
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CHAPEL HILL, NC – JANUARY 29: Armando Bacot #5 of the North Carolina Tar Heels dunks the ball against the NC State Wolfpack in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center on January 29, 2022, in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images)
CHAPEL HILL, NC – JANUARY 29: Armando Bacot #5 of the North Carolina Tar Heels dunks the ball against the NC State Wolfpack in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center on January 29, 2022, in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images) /

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: The last 4 byes

BYU, San Francisco, Seton Hall, San Diego State

This part of the bracket does feature a lot of second-tier teams from quality mid-major conferences like the Mountain West and WCC. BYU is sliding after a pair of terrible losses but gets a home shot at Gonzaga on Saturday while San Francisco doesn’t have a bad loss to its name, which is good, except for the part that they are lacking that “wow” win as well.

The only power conference team in this section is Seton Hall, which has stumbled after a COVID pause. The Pirates have dropped four of their past five games and could really use a two-win week to help restore faith in a team that picked up huge wins over Texas and Michigan earlier this season.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: The last 4 teams in

North Carolina, Creighton, Oregon, Wyoming

The Tar Heels’ situation is dicey since they beat everyone they are supposed to but have been blown out by almost any good team they face on their schedule, as evidenced by an 0-6 mark in Quadrant I that can be improved with a home shot at Duke on Saturday.

Creighton and Oregon have some excellent wins under their belts (vs. Villanova for the Bluejays and a road sweep of UCLA and USC for the Ducks) and confounding losses (Arizona State at home and at Butler by 17 for Creighton while Oregon just fell by four at Colorado to go along with a loss to the Sun Devils), making them perfect bubble teams. Wyoming is in after a dramatic win over Colorado State on Monday night but they need to keep picking up good results in the Mountain West after a suspect non-conference schedule.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: The first 4 out

West Virginia, Florida, UAB, Mississippi State

The SEC is a meatgrinder, which makes it tough for Florida and Mississippi State to pick up quality wins. Stacking losses is easy in the SEC so both teams need to start finding ways to add results to their belts (and in Florida’s case, help erase a Quadrant IV loss to Texas Southern at home).

West Virginia has the talent to play in the NCAA Tournament but has dropped six straight games, which is an issue since you have to show the ability to beat good teams to get into the field. UAB looks the part of a tournament team but has already suffered a pair of losses in Conference USA, meaning they might have to run the table in order to be in the at-large conversation.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: The next 4 out

Florida State, Notre Dame, SMU, VCU

The Seminoles and Fighting Irish are an embodiment of the bad ACC, where there are plenty of empty-calorie wins available along with some disastrous losses. A brutal weekend for Florida State has dropped them below the cutline while Notre Dame had won 10 of 11 before getting decimated by Duke to easily fail the eye test.

SMU is the American’s best chance at an at-large bid but they need to avoid bad losses to keep raising their metrics. VCU made a dent in the A-10 by knocking off Davidson last week but their overall resume suggests they need to keep winning conference games to have a legitimate at-large case.

Conference Breakdown

  • Big 12: 7
  • Big Ten: 7
  • Big East: 7
  • SEC: 6
  • ACC: 4
  • Pac-12: 4
  • Mountain West: 4
  • WCC: 3
  • Missouri Valley: 2

Next. 20 biggest upsets in the history of March Madness. dark

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