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2022 NCAA Tournament Bracketology: UCLA, UNC tumble

By Mike Phillips

TUCSON, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 03: Guard Pelle Larsson #3 of the Arizona Wildcats and guard Dalen Terry #4 of the Arizona Wildcats defend guard Tyger Campbell #10 of the UCLA Bruins during the NCAAB game at McKale Center on February 03, 2022 in Tucson, Arizona. The Arizona Wildcats won 76-66 against the UCLA Bruins. (Photo by Rebecca Noble/Getty Images)
TUCSON, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 03: Guard Pelle Larsson #3 of the Arizona Wildcats and guard Dalen Terry #4 of the Arizona Wildcats defend guard Tyger Campbell #10 of the UCLA Bruins during the NCAAB game at McKale Center on February 03, 2022 in Tucson, Arizona. The Arizona Wildcats won 76-66 against the UCLA Bruins. (Photo by Rebecca Noble/Getty Images) /
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CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA – FEBRUARY 05: R.J. Davis #4 of the North Carolina Tar Heels walks to the bench during their game against the Duke Blue Devils at the Dean E. Smith Center on February 05, 2022, in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Duke won 87-67. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA – FEBRUARY 05: R.J. Davis #4 of the North Carolina Tar Heels walks to the bench during their game against the Duke Blue Devils at the Dean E. Smith Center on February 05, 2022, in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Duke won 87-67. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images) /

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: The last 4 byes

Oregon, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, BYU

The teams stumbling in this group are Oklahoma and BYU, with the Sooners struggling in a loaded Big 12 while BYU got blown out by Gonzaga after taking a disastrous loss to Pacific. Both of these teams are trending in the wrong direction with a few weeks left in the regular season.

The Ducks still have the stench of some bad non-conference losses to overcome but a huge road sweep of UCLA and USC has them in a good spot to move up the S-curve in the coming weeks. Notre Dame has a bad loss at Duke last week but has quietly stacked up wins in the ACC, including victories over fellow bubblers Miami and North Carolina, to go along with a December win over Kentucky that is the headliner of this resume.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: The last 4 teams in

Florida, San Diego State, Miami, UAB

If you looked up bubble team in the dictionary, Florida would be the picture you’d see as their resume and metrics are perfectly average with a few good wins and one disastrous loss at home to Texas Southern, making this spot in the bracket a perfect place for them. San Diego State is struggling in the tough Mountain West but they do deserve a spot in the field alongside high-achieving mid-major UAB, which has to keep stacking wins in a bad Conference USA.

The last team in the field right now is Miami, whose entire resume at this point basically comes down to beating Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Losses to Notre Dame and Virginia last week hurt the Hurricanes badly as they now stare down a critical trip to Wake Forest on Saturday as their last opportunity to add another Quad 1 win to their resume.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: The first 4 out

Mississippi State, Creighton, Saint Louis, Belmont

The Bulldogs have maintained their place right now but need to find ways to add marquee wins to their ledger to offset a horrendous non-conference strength of schedule. Creighton is in a similar boat as Mississippi State, albeit one with wins over Villanova and UCONN right now.

The two high-achieving mid-majors in this grouping are Saint Louis and Belmont, which have solid metrics and decent NET numbers out of leagues that aren’t very deep. Avoiding landmine losses is critical for teams in this kind of position, something the Billikens and Bruins have done a good job with at this point.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: The next 4 out

North Carolina, Washington State, Utah State, Stanford

We went over North Carolina’s situation in detail over the weekend but unlike what certain other outlets would have you believe, going 0-7 in Quad 1 games and surrendering nearly 90 points per game in those losses is disqualifying for at-large consideration. The Tar Heels basically have to find a way to either win at Duke or pick up a few Quad 1 wins in the ACC Tournament to justify their inclusion in the field.

Washington State and Stanford remain afloat as the Pac-12’s best shot at a fifth bid, with the Cougars entering the week on a five-game winning streak with plenty of Quad 1 opportunities ahead while the Cardinal did sweep USC to go along with solid scheduling metrics. Utah State is the presumptive fifth team out of a strong Mountain West but their overall resume needs the infusion of Quad 1 wins over teams like Wyoming, San Diego State and Boise State (all of which come on the road) to get out of this territory.

Conference Breakdown

  • Big 12: 7
  • Big Ten: 7
  • SEC: 7
  • Big East: 6
  • ACC: 4
  • Pac-12: 4
  • Mountain West: 4
  • WCC: 4

Next. 20 biggest upsets in the history of March Madness. dark

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