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2022 NCAA Tournament Bracketology: Rutgers springs onto the bubble

By Mike Phillips

MADISON, WISCONSIN - FEBRUARY 12: Ron Harper Jr. #24 of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights runs down court during the second half of the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Kohl Center on February 12, 2022 in Madison, Wisconsin. Rutgers defeated Wisconsin 73-65. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
MADISON, WISCONSIN - FEBRUARY 12: Ron Harper Jr. #24 of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights runs down court during the second half of the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Kohl Center on February 12, 2022 in Madison, Wisconsin. Rutgers defeated Wisconsin 73-65. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) /
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ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN – FEBRUARY 12: DeVante’ Jones #12 of the Michigan Wolverines reacts to making a basket against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the second half at Crisler Arena on February 12, 2022, in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN – FEBRUARY 12: DeVante’ Jones #12 of the Michigan Wolverines reacts to making a basket against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the second half at Crisler Arena on February 12, 2022, in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images) /

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: The Last 4 Byes

Miami, San Francisco, Oklahoma, Iowa State

The Hurricanes’ at-large resume is largely based on road wins against Duke and Wake Forest, which is great, but they need to keep piling up wins against a sub-par ACC to feel good about their standing. San Francisco has done good work against a solid WCC but a Quad 4 loss to Portland at home last week is going to be a hard one for the committee to swallow.

The Big 12’s meat-grinder nature can be seen here as Oklahoma and Iowa State are barely above the cut-line. These are two good teams who would be at least fifth-place units in most conferences but the sheer number of losses they are accumulating is problematic for at-large scenarios.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: The Last 4 In

Creighton, Florida, Oregon, BYU

A bad non-conference strength of schedule is hurting Creighton, making upcoming road games against DePaul and St. John’s potential landmines that need to be avoided when you are this close to the cutline. Oregon picked up one of those losses this week when it fell at home to Cal but its good work against UCLA and USC on the road in Pac-12 play is holding up well for their resume.

Florida is the last SEC team in the field and they have looked a bit better since Colin Castleton returned from injury on Feb. 5, which should give them opportunities to pick up marquee wins down the stretch. The last team in the field is BYU, which snapped a four-game losing streak with an overtime win against Loyola-Marymount. The Cougars have a trip to Saint Mary’s this week that offers a good opportunity to improve their positioning with a win.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: The First 4 Out

Memphis, Michigan, San Diego State, Kansas State

The Tigers put themselves back in play by winning at Houston and have looked demonstrably better without Emoni Bates, which could play in their favor if they get hot down the stretch. San Diego State would be the Mountain West’s fourth team but the good news if they have a lot of opportunities to pick up defining wins down the stretch.

Michigan has risen dramatically over the past few weeks and its blowout win over Purdue teased the potential the Wolverines have, leaving plenty of room for positive projection if Juwan Howard’s team can finish the regular season strong. Kansas State is another victim of the Big 12’s brutal depth but has the chance to play four of its final five regular season games against teams currently in the projected field.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: The Next 4 Out

North Carolina, Rutgers, Belmont, Mississippi State

Nothing much has changed for North Carolina, whose resume looks slightly better with Michigan’s improvement but still lacks a Quad 1 win. Rutgers has plenty of Quad 1 wins on their profile but needs to keep stacking them to offset its bad losses from earlier in the season, making the fact they have gotten onto the page quite impressive.

Belmont hasn’t done much wrong outside of a bad loss to Ohio to open its season, but if they can end the regular season with four straight wins (including a big one at Murray State), the Bruins can put themselves in the at-large conversation. Mississippi State would be the SEC’s potential eighth team but a poor non-conference schedule and missed opportunities in the league leave them with plenty of work to do over the next month.

Conference Breakdown

  • Big East: 7
  • Big Ten: 7
  • Big 12: 7
  • SEC: 7
  • ACC: 4
  • Pac-12: 4
  • WCC: 4
  • Mountain West: 3
  • American: 2

dark. Next. 12 biggest Cinderella stories in March Madness history

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