The Honda Classic expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

The Honda Classic gets the Florida Swing underway this week and we have our PGA Tour expert picks for the golf at PGA National.

Remember when Matt Jones dominated The Bear Trap at PGA National to win The Honda Classic? Well, that was a year ago for the Aussie as we’re heading back to this venue and the start of the Florida Swing after a lengthy stay on the west coast. But that also signals a fresh start for our PGA Tour expert picks.

PGA National is the type of course that can absolutely break even the best of players. There’s water everywhere and that means one shot can flip the leaderboard on its head. It also means that course history can be tricky to look at as most everyone has a rollercoaster type history here, even the top guys in the field.

Before we get into our picks for The Honda Classic, though, we have to look back at our picks from last week at the Genesis. Patrick Cantlay netted us a measly $64,000 as our One and Done pick, which hurts after burning a big name. He obviously didn’t win as our pick to do so and Dustin Johnson was even worse as our top-10 pick as he missed the cut. We also didn’t cash any of our best bets.

Suffice it to say, it was a tough week and I have to be better because this is getting absurd with how poorly things are going right now. So let’s dive into the PGA Tour expert picks for The Honda Classic.

Note: All odds are courtesy of WynnBet. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

PGA Tour expert picks for The Honda Classic: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

One and Done pick for The Honda Classic: Keith Mitchell

As mentioned, this is the type of course where looking at course history is a bit tricky because everyone has a mixed bag. That’s Keith Mitchell, who won in 2019 but also has two missed cuts and a finish outside the top 50 in his other three trips.

With that said, Mitchell’s strong accuracy and decent short game should play well here and he’s been in good form. In four starts for 2022, he’s missed one cut but hasn’t finished worse than T12 in the others. I’m willing to take him in a tournament that can be a crapshoot for One and Done as a past winner playing well right now.

Top 10 pick for The Honda Classic: Louis Oosthuizen (+225)

I tried to fade Oosthuizen upon his return to PGA Tour action in Phoenix and he simply hadn’t missed a beat as he rolled out of bed after months away from playing in that environment and finished T-14.

The South African is the highest-ranked player in this field and, though I always worry to some degree about win equity, his combination of ball-striking and putting should be perfect for him to find enough success at The Honda Classic to cash as a top-10 play.

Pick to Win The Honda Classic: Shane Lowry (+2200)

If you look around the golf betting community or prognosticators at large, you’re going to see a lot of Mito Pereira picks to win this week with some Mitchell and others sneaking in (favorite Sungjae Im included). But I’m pivoting from that to Shane Lowry. He’s not played on the PGA Tour since the Houston Open but hasn’t finished worse that T-24 in his last four starts worldwide. His issue has been the driver but that’s less of a concern at PGA National where he can club down and still be in good position to score with his irons, which he’s played well with. I like for him to surprise and come up with the victory this week.

PGA Tour best bets for The Honda Classic

Note: These best bets were compiled before matchups were released on WynnBet. 

Mito Pereira to finish Top 20 (+200) 

Having said what I did about many people picking Pereira this week, it’s easy to see why based on what we saw when he came up last year. His ball-striking should fit beautifully at The Honda Classic. My concern is that part of his game has slipped thus far in 2022 and, while he’s putted well, I’m still not sure he’s all the way in the form to win here. I do like his fit, though, and will take a Top 20 bet for him at solid odds.

Billy Horschel to Top 10 (+250)

Horschel is often tough to handicap because, well, sometimes you just don’t know what he has in store. With that said, he’s been putting quite well lately and has been playing well in terms of greens in regulation, which is a critical component to finding success at this venue. With that type of form, I’m willing to hitch my wagon to him coming out with a top-10 finish.

Longshot pick to win: Hudson Swafford (+11000)

Since winning The American Express, Swafford has played twice with a missed cut and T60 finish. That’s not great but it’s also somewhat to be expected from a popper like he can be. His approach play has been quite good of late and all he needs to contend is to find something with the putter. At this type of event where scoring should be at a premium, I like his chance to potentially make some noise as a longshot for the week.

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