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Kentucky, Kansas and 5 NCAA basketball teams on upset alert this week

By Mike Phillips

FAYETTEVILLE, ARKANSAS - FEBRUARY 26: Head Coach John Calipari of the Kentucky Wildcats yells at his team in the first half during a game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Bud Walton Arena on February 26, 2022 in Fayetteville, Arkansas. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
FAYETTEVILLE, ARKANSAS - FEBRUARY 26: Head Coach John Calipari of the Kentucky Wildcats yells at his team in the first half during a game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Bud Walton Arena on February 26, 2022 in Fayetteville, Arkansas. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images) /
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With the final week of the regular season on tap, bubble teams with home dates against foes like Kansas and Kentucky are top college basketball upset picks.

The college basketball regular season comes to a close this week and it brings fewer opportunities for bubble teams to make statements to impress the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee ahead of March Madness. Desperate teams who get opportunities to play ranked foes at home often rise to the occasion with inspiring performances that can lead to upsets, a fact that Auburn and Texas Tech learned the hard way last week.

This week’s college basketball upset picks are largely based on teams that enter the week in need of a resume boost taking advantage of opportunities to square off with elite foes. Let’s take a look at the five teams most vulnerable to an upset in Judgment Week, beginning with the Kansas Jayhawks.

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Note: All games listed below were on the schedule as of post time. COVID-19 related issues can lead to cancellations on short notice.

No. 6 Kansas at TCU – Tuesday

The Horned Frogs did excellent work towards securing their place in the field by knocking off Texas Tech on Saturday and can lock up an at-large berth by picking up a win over the Jayhawks this week. Kansas and TCU actually play twice in a row thanks to a COVID makeup, creating an NBA-style home-and-home for the Horned Frogs to take advantage of, but the home game Tuesday is a much easier ask than going on the road and winning at Allen Fieldhouse on Thursday.

No. 5 Auburn at Mississippi State – Wednesday

While Mississippi State isn’t truly on the bubble, they are a dangerous team in the SEC and are capable of knocking off anyone if they play their best basketball. This is bad news for Auburn, which has lost three consecutive conference road games and hasn’t put up an impressive effort away from home since a 15-point win against South Carolina on Jan. 4.

No. 24 Iowa at Michigan – Thursday

The Hawkeyes are relatively safe in terms of bubble standing after earning a few Quad 1 wins but Michigan finds itself firmly in trouble after losing their 12th game to Illinois on Sunday. The Wolverines can’t afford to take on too many more losses and that means they could up their game here to take down Iowa on Senior Night at the Crisler Center.

No. 7 Kentucky at Florida – Saturday

There may not be a better definition of a bubble team this season than Florida, which enters the week 18-11 overall, 8-8 in a strong SEC, and has two marquee wins (vs. Auburn and over Ohio State on a neutral floor) to go with some brutal losses (Texas Southern at home, at Ole Miss, at Maryland). With Kentucky coming to town on Senior Day this could be a circle-the-wagons type effort for the Gators, who could feel a lot better about their bubble chances entering the SEC Tournament by knocking off the Wildcats.

No. 14 Houston at Memphis – Sunday

The Cougars already lost to Memphis once this season at home and now have to hit the road in a game that the Tigers desperately need on the final day of the regular season. Memphis is probably on the right side of the cut-line at the moment but sweeping the Cougars would give Penny Hardaway’s team a ton of wiggle room to play with ahead of the AAC conference tournament.

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