Bracketology 2022: 6 most likely bid thieves heading into conference tournaments

CHESTNUT HILL, MASSACHUSETTS - JANUARY 22: Storm Murphy #5 of the Virginia Cavaliers drives to the basket during a game against the Boston College Eagles at Conte Forum on January 22, 2022 in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Getty Images)
CHESTNUT HILL, MASSACHUSETTS - JANUARY 22: Storm Murphy #5 of the Virginia Cavaliers drives to the basket during a game against the Boston College Eagles at Conte Forum on January 22, 2022 in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Getty Images) /
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Isaiah Mosley, of Missouri State, during the Bears 83-67 win over Bradley at JQH Arena on Wednesday, Feb. 23, 2022.Msubradley353
Isaiah Mosley, of Missouri State, during the Bears 83-67 win over Bradley at JQH Arena on Wednesday, Feb. 23, 2022.Msubradley353 /

2. Potential March Madness bid thieves – Missouri State Bears

The Missouri Valley Conference has produced plenty of bid thieves in the past and 2022 could be no exception. The presumed favorite in Arch Madness, Loyola Chicago, actually fell from the No. 1 seed to the No. 4 seed after losing to Northern Iowa in their final regular-season game.

The Ramblers have a solid resume built on good metrics and a few good non-league wins like a neutral-site victory over San Francisco that has proven to be extremely valuable. There is enough good work here that the Ramblers could still earn an at-large bid if they can get to the Missouri Valley final and lose, which would create a potential bid thief in Missouri State.

The Bears went 22-9 during the regular season and split their season series with Loyola Chicago, picking up a 79-69 win on the road in January when the Ramblers were ranked inside the Top 25. Even though the metrics have indicated that Missouri State is a quality basketball team their overall performance isn’t good enough to earn an at-large bid from the selection committee.

The path to a two-bid MVC comes from Loyola-Chicago getting to the final of Arch Madness before falling to Missouri State. If that scenario passes both of them should get in while another at-large hopeful has their dreams crushed.