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2022 NCAA Tournament Bracketology: Where do we stand at the start of Champ Week?

By Mike Phillips

DURHAM, NORTH CAROLINA - MARCH 05: Jeremy Roach #3 of the Duke Blue Devils attempts a shot against Brady Manek #45 of the North Carolina Tar Heels during the first half of the game at Cameron Indoor Stadium on March 05, 2022 in Durham, North Carolina. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)
DURHAM, NORTH CAROLINA - MARCH 05: Jeremy Roach #3 of the Duke Blue Devils attempts a shot against Brady Manek #45 of the North Carolina Tar Heels during the first half of the game at Cameron Indoor Stadium on March 05, 2022 in Durham, North Carolina. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images) /
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PISCATAWAY, NJ – MARCH 06: Geo Baker #0 of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in action against the Penn State Nittany Lions during a game at Jersey Mike’s Arena on March 6, 2022, in Piscataway, New Jersey. Rutgers defeated Penn State 59.58. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
PISCATAWAY, NJ – MARCH 06: Geo Baker #0 of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in action against the Penn State Nittany Lions during a game at Jersey Mike’s Arena on March 6, 2022, in Piscataway, New Jersey. Rutgers defeated Penn State 59.58. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch – Last 4 Byes

North Carolina, Wake Forest, Wyoming, Memphis

The Tar Heels’ huge win over Duke was likely enough to put them into the field thanks to a huge stack of wins that now has a signature victory to complement good metrics, although losing their first game in Brooklyn could push North Carolina into the First Four. Wake Forest is in a decent spot to avoid the First Four although a poor non-conference strength of schedule and a loss to either Pittsburgh or Boston College in the ACC Tournament could leave the Demon Deacons sweating out Selection Sunday.

Wyoming is in a dangerous position since they have stumbled a bit down the stretch and have to face a UNLV team that beat them twice during the regular season in the Mountain West Tournament, which could lead to some problems if they lose to the Runnin’ Rebels again. Memphis is also trending in the right direction after completing a sweep of Houston on Sunday and should secure a spot by avoiding a bad loss in their first AAC Tournament game.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch – Last 4 Teams In

Michigan, Xavier, Rutgers, Dayton

Alternating wins and losses has worked well for the Wolverines, who have picked up some big wins down the stretch in the Big Ten, but finding a way not to lose to Indiana would be smart for a team that already has 13 losses. Rutgers did good work to land a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament and could draw No. 5 seed Iowa on Friday, which would eliminate the bad loss scenario, but the Scarlet Knights would still be better served to win to feel good entering the weekend.

The Big East team in the most jeopardy is Xavier, which has been skidding down the stretch and fell to the No. 8 seed in the Big East Tournament. The Musketeers’ overall body of work should keep them safe as long as they don’t lose to Butler tomorrow. The last team in the field right now is Dayton, which picked up a huge win over Davidson to end the regular season, but their four Quad 4 losses are an anchor that could leave them vulnerable to getting left behind if they lose early in Washington.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch – First 4 Teams Out

SMU, Indiana, BYU, Florida

The Mustangs are the first team out of the field since their body of work outside of sweeping Memphis and beating Houston at home is lacking but they will have plenty of opportunities to improve on their resume at the AAC Tournament this week. Indiana has also fallen out of the field thanks to difficulties winning away from Assembly Hall, making their matchup against Michigan on Thursday a game they have to win to avoid dropping off the bubble entirely.

BYU is in murky water since they lost to San Francisco in the WCC Tournament and need to pray for minimal bid thieves since they no longer have an opportunity to improve their own resume. The last team in this group is Florida, which wasted a golden opportunity against Kentucky on Senior Day and now has to win at least two games in the SEC Tournament to give themselves a shot at getting an at-large bid.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch – Next 4 Teams Out

Virginia Tech, VCU, Texas A&M, Oklahoma

The Hokies were close to First 4 out status before losing at Clemson over the weekend, which should turn the ACC Tournament into an auto-bid or bust venture for them. The potential third team out of the A-10 could be VCU, which has a tricky game against Richmond looming before a likely knockout spot against Dayton in the A-10 semifinals.

Texas A&M’s eight-game losing streak in the middle of the season really hurt them but the Aggies are playing well and could follow Florida’s path to an at-large bid by knocking out the Gators before taking down Auburn in the SEC Tournament. Oklahoma is still on the page since they have opportunities to stack up wins against Baylor and Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament but any loss would be the 15th on the year for the Sooners, all but eliminating them from the field.

Conference Breakdown

  • Big Ten: 8
  • Big East: 7
  • Big 12: 6
  • SEC: 6
  • ACC: 5
  • Mountain West: 4
  • Pac-12: 3
  • WCC: 3
  • American: 2
  • Atlantic 10: 2

Next. 20 biggest upsets in the history of March Madness. dark

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