PGA Tour expert picks: Outright winner picks for THE PLAYERS Championship
Viktor Hovland (+2000)
Told you that Hovland would be mentioned again. Outside of a horrid week at the WM Phoenix Open where he missed the cut, here are his finishes in the other three of his last four starts worldwide: Win, T-4, T-2. He’s doing that while also still struggling a bit around the green. But his tee-to-green game and, shockingly, putting have been good enough to where he’s my favorite outright winner pick this week at THE PLAYERS.
Brooks Koepka (+4000)
I’m not going to belabor points I’ve already made about Koepka but this just feels like a spot where he can come in and get a big victory. He’s trending in the right direction, he looks healthy, and his ball-striking improvement matched with putting history at TPC Sawgrass leads to some terrific value at 40/1 odds to win.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000)
Because he hasn’t gotten the win, you might be sleeping on Matt Fitzpatrick. A word of advice: Don’t. He’s one of my best bets this week, as mentioned, but Iain MacMillan of BetSided also has Fitzpatrick as an outright bet as well. Here’s his reasoning regarding the Englishman:
"I’m back on Matt Fitzpatrick for the second-straight week, but for good reason. With the kind of numbers he’s been putting up, it’s not a matter of if he’s going to win this year, it’s a matter of when. He ranks second on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total this season, but yet he’s listed at 40/1? That makes no sense. He’s also 17th in strokes gained: approach, fourth in strokes gained: putting, and he’s a fairly accurate driver as well, ranking 65th in that category. He also finished ninth here last season, so he’s already had success at TPC Sawgrass in March."
The combination of value and form is too good to pass up.
Shane Lowry (+4500)
Lowry burned me with the weather conditions on the 72nd hole clearly getting in his head and costing him a chance to force a playoff at The Honda Classic. But like Michael Scott, I’m ready to get hurt again.
The Irishman has gained more than 7.0 strokes total in his last four starts worldwide and also finished eighth at THE PLAYERS last year. With wind and weather in the forecast this week, we know that Lowry can thrive in those conditions as he did to win The Open Championship (which is also what made The Honda so jarring). At this value, he’s worthy of a sprinkle.
Longshot Pick to win THE PLAYERS Championship: Sebastian Muñoz (+17500)
As is often the case with Sebastian Muñoz, the greens have been his nemesis of late as he’s lost strokes putting in five straight starts. However, the rest of his game has been in tremendous form, which has led to him finishing T-26 or better in each of his last three starts. That form from tee-to-green indicates that he can make some noise if the putter is even average, which makes 175/1 odds too juicy to pass up as the longshot pick of the week.
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