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Bracketology update: Who’s in and who’s out ahead of Selection Sunday

By Mike Phillips

TAMPA, FLORIDA - MARCH 12: Uros Plavsic #33 of the Tennessee Volunteers celebrates after defeating the Kentucky Wildcats 69-62 in the Semifinal game of the SEC Men's Basketball Tournament at Amalie Arena on March 12, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
TAMPA, FLORIDA - MARCH 12: Uros Plavsic #33 of the Tennessee Volunteers celebrates after defeating the Kentucky Wildcats 69-62 in the Semifinal game of the SEC Men's Basketball Tournament at Amalie Arena on March 12, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MARCH 09: Dallas Walton #13 of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons loses control of the ball as Quinten Post #12 and Brevin Galloway #51 of the Boston College Eagles defend during overtime in the 2022 Men’s ACC Basketball Tournament – Second Round at Barclays Center on March 09, 2022, in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. The Eagles won 82-77. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MARCH 09: Dallas Walton #13 of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons loses control of the ball as Quinten Post #12 and Brevin Galloway #51 of the Boston College Eagles defend during overtime in the 2022 Men’s ACC Basketball Tournament – Second Round at Barclays Center on March 09, 2022, in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. The Eagles won 82-77. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch – The Last 4 Byes

Iowa State, Miami, Wyoming, Indiana

The Cyclones were undefeated at one point but going one-and-done in the Big 12 Tournament will leave Iowa State just ahead of the First Four. Avoiding a loss to Boston College in Brooklyn was enough to keep Miami in the field, something a few of their fellow ACC bubblers weren’t able to accomplish.

Wyoming had to beat UNLV in the Mountain West Tournament and they did, avoiding a bad loss to remain in the bracket. Few teams did more work this week than Indiana, which toppled Michigan and Illinois to get off the bubble and avoid the First Four entirely in the process.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch – The Last 4 In

Michigan, Rutgers, SMU, Xavier

Losing to the Hoosiers cost Michigan a spot in the main bracket but their surge down the stretch should keep them in the First Four. Rutgers will be sweating after losing to Iowa in their first Big Ten Tournament game but a strong collection of Quadrant 1 wins should be enough to keep them in the bracket.

SMU is a true quagmire for bracketologists to figure out since their best resume qualities are two wins over Memphis and one over Houston at home, but they are in right now. The last team in the field is Xavier, which lost its first Big East Tournament game to Butler as part of a 4-10 finish to the season, but some good early season performances (including a win over Ohio State) will keep them afloat for now. With two potential bid thieves in play on Sunday, the Muskeeters’ place in the bracket is far from secure.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch – The First 4 Out

Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Wake Forest, Oklahoma

Virginia Tech’s win in the ACC Tournament knocked Notre Dame out of the field, which makes sense since the Fighting Irish’s resume is mighty thin outside of a win over Kentucky in December and their NET is over 50. Wake Forest also took itself out of the field by losing to Boston College in the second round of the ACC Tournament, which was not an acceptable outcome for a program that put together the 320th ranked non-conference strength of schedule.

Texas A&M also has a weak non-conference SOS, which has them just outside the field right now, but they have an opportunity to win their way into the field by knocking off Tennessee in the SEC Tournament final on Sunday afternoon. Oklahoma may have made the field if they knocked off Texas Tech on Friday night but 15 losses is simply too many for the committee to overlook.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch – The Next 4 Out

Dayton, BYU, North Texas, VCU

Dayton’s bubble burst when they lost to Richmond in the A-10 Tournament semifinals, which is a problem when they had four awful losses on their resume entering the postseason. The Spiders also knocked VCU out of the tournament with a win on Friday and could cost another bubbler an NCAA Tournament berth if they knock off Davidson to win the A-10’s automatic bid on Sunday.

It was also a bad week for BYU, which saw the bubble contract and push them further outside the field after a quarterfinal loss to San Francisco in the WCC Tournament. North Texas is a really talented team that ran roughshod over Conference USA during the regular season and lost in the semifinals of the conference tournament, leaving them on the outside looking in as part of the tough path that talented mid-majors have to walk to get into the NCAA Tournament.

Conference Breakdown

  • Big Ten: 9
  • Big East: 7
  • Big 12: 6
  • SEC: 6
  • ACC: 4
  • Mountain West: 4
  • Pac-12: 3
  • WCC: 3
  • American: 3

Next. 20 biggest upsets in the history of March Madness. dark

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