Tom Brady returns, NFL free agency preview, Russell Wilson and more

NFL free agency unofficially opens on Monday at noon ET, and the deals will be flying. Here’s what to expect. But first, Tom Brady is back.

This is a first for Stacking The Box. Two ledes within the beginning of a column.

We were going to dedicate this portion to previewing free agency, but then Tom Brady decided a 40-day retirement was enough. The 44-year-old is back with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

So let’s open with Brady and what it means, then dovetail into free agency.

With Brady’s return to Tampa Bay after a sabbatical that made even Brett Favre blush, the Buccaneers are now overwhelming favorites in the haphazard NFC South. Tampa Bay is already reeling the benefits of Brady’s presence, with Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen back on a three-year, $39 million deal. Per source, talks were happening for weeks before finishing on Sunday night.

Outside of Tampa, Brady’s reversal has ripples.

For starters, a tougher road for the Los Angeles Rams in their repeat quest. The Rams are going to lose a few pieces in free agency, and while the Buccaneers will as well, they remain a key threat. Also, the Green Bay Packers went from favorites in the NFC to sharing said title with Tampa Bay. Sunday night certainly wasn’t a pleasant one for Aaron Rodgers (much more on him below).

In the NFC South, does this change the calculus for the other three teams?

The Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints all have substandard rosters, with the latter two desperate for a quarterback. While the Saints and Panthers were both believed to be interested in Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson before the Brady news, this could intensify a nasty bidding war.

As for Brady himself, there will be legions who are exhausted by him. This is his 23rd year, and Brady is trying to win an eighth ring. Enough, right? Yet once Brady is gone, there will likely never be another like him. He’s the Bill Russell of the NFL. Not the most-talented, but the ultimate winner.

Appreciate his greatness before it’s gone.

Alright, onto free agency.

At 12 p.m. EST, the NFL’s legal tampering period opens. It remains the most-hilarious moniker in sports.

While agents and teams have been talking for months through back channels, it all begins to spill onto Twitted feeds in real time. For this reasons, don’t be shocked when a $65 million deal comes together miraculously within four minutes.

So what to expect? With the salary cap rising $26 million from the COVID valley of $182 million last year, teams have money again. They also know a financial boom is coming in 2023, which means a spike in the cap and an ability to sign longer deals, pushing money into the future.

Looking at this class, there are ample edge rushers, corners and safeties on the market. Although there aren’t a ton of show-stoppers, there are quality players who can make a real impact for a contender. A few to watch in the early hours of free agency?

EDGE: Chandler Jones, Haason Reddick, Emmanuel Ogbah, Von Miller
CB: J.C. Jackson, Carlton Davis, Charvarius Ward, Darious Williams, Stephon Gilmore
S: Tyrann Mathieu, Marcus Williams, Justin Reid

Offensively, there’s a dearth. While a couple are worth big money such as receiver Allen Robinson and guard Brandon Scherff, most have been taken off the market either with deals over the past week, or franchise tags. Quarterback is also a wasteland, unless your team loves Mitchell Trubisky, Jameis Winston (more on them in Parting Shot), Teddy Bridgewater or Marcus Mariota.

A few tidbits I’ve heard throughout the last two weeks:

One prediction for this class? Jackson gets the biggest overall contract. He’s 26 years old and has 17 interceptions over the past two seasons. He’s going to get a monster deal.

Another prediction? Allen Robinson finally pairs with a quality quarterback. After playing most of his career with Blake Bortles, Nick Foles, Andy Dalton and Trubisky, it’s time to find a signal-caller who can help, not hurt him.

Finally, one more … JuJu Smith-Schuster signed with the Pittsburgh Steelers last year despite bigger offers from the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs. It makes sense for both to be involved once more in his market.

Free agency is here. So is Brady. A new season.

Power rankings

Top 10 offensive trios in NFL history

1. Johnny Unitas | Lenny Moore | Raymond Berry – Baltimore Colts
2. Joe Montana | Roger Craig | Jerry Rice – San Francisco 49ers
3. Troy Aikman | Emmitt Smith | Michael Irvin – Dallas Cowboys
4. Kurt Warner | Marshall Faulk | Isaac Bruce – St. Louis Rams
5. Terry Bradshaw | Franco Harris | Lynn Swann – Pittsburgh Steelers
6. Peyton Manning | Edgerrin James | Marvin Harrison – Indianapolis Colts
7. Patrick Mahomes | Travis Kelce | Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs
8. Jim Kelly | Thurman Thomas | Andre Reed – Buffalo Bills
9. John Elway | Terrell Davis | Shannon Sharpe – Denver Broncos
10. Dan Fouts | Kellen Winslow | Charlie Joiner – San Diego Chargers

Quotable

"“Ms. Davis’ lawsuit does not seek the recovery of money. Ms. Davis’ lawsuit seeks only to have a Court declare that she is not bound to an agreement entered into that attempts to prohibit her from stating who her real father is. Surely, anyone can understand this need of a child no matter what age to have the ability to say they have a father without the fear of reprisal.”"

– Lawyers Andrew A. Bergman and Jay K. Gray representing Alexandra Davis, who is suing Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones

In an offseason with some headline-grabbing news, this seems to have somehow gone largely unnoticed nationally. Jones is being sued for allegedly paying a woman to keep his fatherhood of their daughter secret, with the alleged fee being $375,000.

Recent years have seen some ugly scandals with NFL royalty, ranging from former Carolina Panthers owner Jerry Richardson to owner Daniel Snyder of the Washington Commanders.

If this proves true, it’s a horrid stain on Jones’ character.

Podcast

Random stat

Only the 2009 Green Bay Packers have ever scored at least 45 points in a playoff game and lost, doing so the Arizona Cardinals. The only others to score 40+ and be eliminated are the ’13 Chiefs and ’17 Steelers.

Info learned this week

1. Russell Wilson, Khalil Mack and the pursuit of Kansas City

On Tuesday, Aaron Rodgers decided to stay with the Green Bay Packers. Less than two hours later, Russell Wilson was dealt to the Denver Broncos, with the Seattle Seahawks receiving two first-round picks, two second-rounders, tight end Noah Fant, defensive tackle Shelby Harris and quarterback Drew Lock.

Then, two days later, the Los Angeles Chargers began rebuilding their defense by agreeing to acquire edge rusher Khalil Mack from the Chicago Bears for second- and sixth-round picks.

The Broncos are much better. The Chargers are improved. The Kansas City Chiefs are being chased.

Ultimately, these moves all have the same goal in mind: catch Kansas City. The Chiefs have won six straight AFC West titles and hold a 13-game winning streak over the Broncos. Los Angeles has quarterback Justin Herbert on a rookie deal and needs to spend now, knowing it can’t in a few years.

These moves — especially Denver’s — should have the Chiefs concerned. They stand to potentially lose safety Tyrann Mathieu and corner Charvarius Ward in free agency, with it very possible at least one is gone. And although Kansas City can easily create roughly $50 million in cap space with an extension for receiver Tyreek Hill, the release of defensive end Frank Clark and a restructure of quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ deal, none of that has yet happened.

The AFC West has dominated for more than a half-decade by Kansas City, and it remains the odds-on favorite to win another title. Rightfully so. The Chiefs still have the best quarterback, best coach and best offensive line in the group.

However, with Wilson arriving in the Mile High City, and the Chargers giving Joey Bosa a bookend, Kansas City has work to do.

2. Rodgers drama ends predictably … with Packers and more money

Aaron Rodgers decided to stay in Green Bay. And got another contract. Stunning.

After two months of vacillating on whether to stay with the Packers or bolt, Rodgers chose the option most believed was inevitable last week. As a reward for his servitude and loyalty, the two-time reigning MVP reportedly received a contract extension of four years and $200 million.

So what’s the fallout from this?

For starters, Green Bay and Jordan Love are best-served with him on another team. The Packers invested a first-round pick in Love two years ago, but he’s started one game and won’t be starting another until well into his second contract at this rate. Green Bay general manager Brian Gutekunst should start shopping the 23-year-old and hope he can get a Day 2 pick.

Teams to watch? The Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts, both who are desperate.

Furthermore, while the return of Rodgers is good news for Packers fans, it also means a serious cap crunch. Green Bay is likely to lose a slew of name players in the next few years, with potential departures including edge rushers Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith, receiver Randall Cobb, linebacker De’Vondre Campbell, corner Jaire Alexander and more. Currently, the Packers are a league-worst $44 million over the cap.

Rodgers is back with the Pack. It’s reason to celebrate and certainly the biggest question answered of Green Bay’s offseason, but many more loom.

3. Wentz trade is rare lose-lose for Commanders and Colts

Carson Wentz is on his third team in as many years. There’s a reason.

Last week, the Washington Commanders sent a pair of Day 2 picks to the Indianapolis Colts for Wentz, taking on his entire contract. Essentially, he’s owed $28 million this year with two team options for ’23 and ’24. While the financials aren’t bad long-term for Washington, giving up a pair of top-100 picks is with a team nowhere near ready to win a Super Bowl.

Are the Commanders better with Wentz? Perhaps marginally, nothing more.

Talk to people around the NFL, and the same picture is consistently painted with Wentz. Talented guy who is unwilling to accept responsibility for failures, and who doesn’t lead in the locker room. These reasons, far more than his on-field limitations, is why he lasted one year with the Colts.

And while Indianapolis got good value after tanking it during the Scouting Combine, this is far from a win. The Colts gave up first- and third-round picks for Wentz a year ago, and won nine games before selling his stock. It sets the franchise back even more, as now general manager Chris Ballard looks for his fifth quarterback in as many years.

At some point, the Colts have to commit to a quarterback in the draft and go forward. It won’t be this year, as their first-rounder belongs to the Philadelphia Eagles. All for nine wins and an epic collapse.

4. Deshaun Watson won’t face criminal charges, trade market ramps up

On Friday, Deshaun Watson learned he wouldn’t be facing criminal charges in connection with the 22 civil suits currently against him for sexual assault. With the grand jury’s decision, it appears some NFL teams are beginning an aggressive pursuit of him.

Of the clubs rumored to be involved are the Saints and Panthers. With the return of Brady in Tampa Bay, it makes finding a quarterback all the more imperative this year, and considering Brady’s longevity, perhaps the following few as well.

It’s impossible to know how this plays out. Watson has a no-trade clause and therefore can steer this situation. Houston clearly is ready to move on, but what’s the cost? There’s enough interest despite the ugliness of the past year to bank on a game of can-you-top-this-offer, which certainly means a litany of first- and second-round picks, perhaps along with a player.

One darkhorse contender in all this? The Cleveland Browns. I dive deep into this below (Inside the League), but multiple league conversations have the Browns looking to upgrade Baker Mayfield. Watson would need to approve a deal to Cleveland, and Houston would need to approve sending him to an AFC team, but the Browns can’t be discounted.

As free agency opens and the NFL Draft is six weeks away, Watson is a key figure to watch as his ultimate destination helps shape the offseason.

5. Ezekiel Elliott contract is destroying Cowboys

The Cowboys are selling like an auctioneer. It’s largely because of Ezekiel Elliott’s contract.

Elliott signed a six-year, $90 million extension with $50 million guaranteed in Sept. 2019, despite Dallas having two years left on his rookie deal. Owner/general manager Jerry Jones panicked when Elliott held out of training camp, instead of holding firm. Jones paid Elliott before quarterback Dak Prescott and receiver Amari Cooper, both deals which ended up becoming far more expensive over time.

Elliott counts for $18.2 million against the salary cap this season, before the figure drops to $16.7 million next year. Dallas can conceivably move on after this year ($11.86M in ’23), but would eat almost $20 million in dead cap over the final three years of the extension.

Fast forward to Saturday, and Dallas traded Cooper and a sixth-round draft choice to the Browns, netting 2022 fifth- and sixth-rounders. Essentially, Cleveland took three years and $60 million worth of Cooper, and Dallas got a late pick. All this as the Cowboys are reportedly trying to trade star right tackle La’El Collins in an effort to clear additional cap space.

After watching his Cowboys flop in the NFC Wild Card round, Jones moved a top-tier receiver and is readying to jettison an elite right tackle, all while hoping Prescott and the team’s fortunes  improve.

It’s horrific business all set in motion by one of the most short-sighted deals in recent NFL history.

Two cents

The deals in free agency which get the biggest headlines are usually the ones teams regret the most.

Every year, there are always a few teams who rush out and spend upwards of $100 million to buy wins. And every year, those teams largely regret their purchases. Last winter, the New England Patriots spent lavishly on tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, doling $87.5 million between them. In their first year with New England, the duo combined 897 receiving yards.

In 2019, it was the Detroit Lions dropping five years and $90 million on defensive end Trey Flowers. He’s now expected to be released after notching 10.5 sacks over three seasons, forcing Detroit to eat $18.4 million in dead money across the next two years.

The examples are annual, and they’re unrelenting. So if your team doesn’t spend massive chunks of cash in the first 48-72 hours of free agency, don’t be dismayed. You should probably be relieved.

Inside the League

Rumors always fly this time of year. A few worth noting involve the Browns.

Talking to league sources, the expectation is Cleveland has a busy offseason ahead. Early last week, I reported the Browns were believed to be very heavy on receivers in free agency, trying to replace the production of  Odell Beckham Jr. and, potentially, Jarvis Landry. Days later, they landed Amari Cooper. They might not be done.

But who will be throwing the ball to these new wideouts? Baker Mayfield is playing out his fifth-year option, and some in NFL circles think he might not be doing so in Cleveland. While it’s important to stress this is chatter and far from a definitive outcome, Mayfield’s struggles last season may prompt action from general manager Andrew Berry.

Finally, Browns owner Jimmy Haslam has never been a patient man. Since buying the team in 2012, no head coach has lasted three full seasons. Stefanski is entering his third year.

In other words, there’s ample urgency in Cleveland.

History lesson

The New York Giants went through a transitional phase in multiple aspects during the mid-1970s.

After agreeing to move to New Jersey upon the completion of Giants Stadium, the city of New York terminated the team’s lease at Yankee Stadium, forcing them to play the final five home dates of 1973 and the full ’74 slate at the Yale Bowl in Connecticut.

In ’75, the Giants moved once more, playing at Shea Stadium with the New York Jets before finally heading to the Meadowlands. When the Giants arrived in New Jersey, they removed the “ny” off their helmets and went to “GIANTS” in a signifying move.

Parting shot

Around the NFL, most expect Mitchell Trubisky to get a healthy contract, as I wrote about last week.

Can someone explain why Jameis Winston doesn’t get a better one?

The negatives on Winston are evident. He’s coming off a torn ACL — although it was in October, so he could play Week 1 — and he’s been a turnover machine throughout his career. In 83 games, Winston has thrown 91 interceptions. Everybody understands this.

However, Winston has also thrown for 5,000 yards in a season and his QBR has exceeded 50 (average grade, scale is 1-100) every season of his career with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints. All told, he’s 18 yards shy of 21,000 and has 135 passing touchdowns to his credit.

Neither Winston or Trubisky are ideal starting options, but the upside for the former is considerably larger than the latter’s. For any general manager looking for a veteran stopgap or someone their coaching staff can find the best in, Winston seems the much better bet.