RBC Heritage expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Dissecting the RBC Heritage this week at Harbour Town Golf Links and offering up our PGA Tour expert picks, best bets and more.

Some might call it a letdown that the regular PGA Tour schedule starts back up right after The Masters, but you won’t hear that coming out of my mouth. We’re heading to Harbour Town Golf Links for the RBC Heritage this week as Stewart Cink, now a three-time champion at this event, defends his title against a field that includes Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Smith, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Cantlay and an overall strong group.

At Augusta, we had some hits and misses with our picks and best bets. Our big hit was cashing Cameron Smith as a Top 5 but we also had Sam Burns to miss the cut, Tiger Woods to make the cut and Matt Fitzpatrick for a Top 20. Not a bad week but we can do better.

That’s the goal here as we dive into the RBC Heritage this week with our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets for the week in Hilton Head, SC.

Note: All odds are courtesy of WynnBet. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

PGA Tour expert picks for Valero Texas Open: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

One and Done pick for RBC Heritage: Daniel Berger

We all know that Berger, on the whole, is one of the better players on the PGA Tour. The issues with him arise when he’s asked to tackle an extremely long golf course, at least for the most part. He’s a ball-striker but isn’t a long hitter by any stretch, and also has an elite short game when he’s on. The RBC Heritage, for those reasons, should fit him like a glove and I like banking on a good finish from him at Harbour Town after a decent showing at Augusta, which has historically not been all that kind to him.

Top 10 pick for RBC Heritage: Matt Fitzpatrick (+240)

I’ve reached the point where I can’t possibly not bet on Matt Fitzpatrick with the way he’s currently playing. He cashed as a Top 20 pick at The Masters for me last week and he’s a great fit here, evidenced by finishing T4 at Harbour Town in 2021. I’m sketched out by picking him to win because, well, he just hasn’t done that. But a Top 10 feels like a tremendous bet for him at over +200. Iain MacMillan of BetSided is in agreement as Fitzpatrick is one of his three outright picks this week.

"At this stage, I’m committed to betting on Matt Fitzpatrick util he wins an event, because it still seems like it’s a matter of when as opposed to if. Not only that, but this course fits his style considering his accuracy off the tee is much better than his distance. He ranks 139th in driving distance, but 40th in driving accuracy.He’s also third in scrambling percentage, so when he misses a green, he should have no issue saving par. Finally, he has a great course history here, with three top 20 finishes in his last four starts, including a fourth place finish last year."

Bank on another strong week from Fitzpatrick with the form he’s currently in.

Pick to Win RBC Heritage: Dustin Johnson (+1800)

Admittedly, part of this pick is going on a gut feeling based on the trends. Dustin Johnson isn’t getting the love he deserves for how well he’s played as of late, going T12 at The Masters, fourth at the Match Play, T39 at Valero and T9 at THE PLAYERS. More importantly, he’s been striking the ball exceptionally with every club that isn’t his driver or putter. I think we see a conservative, smart approach this week from DJ with a lot of 3-woods off the tee to maintain the accuracy he needs at this venue. Combine that with his approach play and I like for him to emerge victorious with a much-needed victory this season.

PGA Tour best bets for the RBC Heritage

You can check out Iain MacMillan and I breaking down some of our picks and best bets, including one not featured in this column for a Top 5 (or Top 10) play, for the BetSided YouTube channel here before we get into the rest of the picks.

Si Woo Kim to finish Top 20 (+250)

Harbour Town Golf Links is a Pete Dye design and there’s no more famous player for being a Pete Dye specialist than Si Woo Kim. Throughout his career, he’s thrived on Dye courses and has a strong history here, even if a bit erratic, with a second-place finish, T14 and T33 over the years. Kim played decently at The Masters but is coming to a place where he could pop. Getting this value for only a Top 20 play is too good to pass up.

Harold Varner III to finish Top 20 (+240)

In the video betting preview with Iain, HV3 was my Top 20 pick and I’m sticking to my guns to call this one of my best bets of the week. The only real concern I have about Varner this week is his driving accuracy historically, which has not been good. Of very recent form, though, he’s improved there and, as with DJ, can club down at a place like this. Otherwise, his approach and around the green play have been phenomenal and this is terrific value for a Top 20 play on him.

Chris Kirk to finish Top 20 (+250)

We’re adopting a bit of a new strategy here to try and be a little more conservative with the best bets while still trying to find value. Hence why we have three Top 20 bets all with +240 odds or better on WynnBet and Kirk is another player I love this week (and of late). He’s a decently accurate hitter off the tee and his approach game has been terrific over the past few months, leading to some great finishes. Throw in some needed rest a Top 10 finish here last year and I love the value for him as a Top 20 play.

Longshot pick to win: Adam Svensson (+15000)

This is a well I’ve dipped my toe into on numerous occasions but I just love what Svensson brings to the table, particularly on a course that’s shorter and can play to his ball-striking prowess. We saw the Canadian threaten at The Honda Classic, which demands accuracy and precision more than distance — which sounds a lot like the RBC Heritage. At these long odds with his game, especially if he can even just be average with the putter, Svensson could be a very live sleeper.

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