ESPN Preseason FPI rankings: Alabama is No. 1 and 5 more takeaways

Alabama maybe No. 1 in the ESPN Preseason FPI rankings, but these five other observations of their initial preseason rankings should have college football fans everywhere very intrigued.

The ESPN Preseason FPI rankings have been released with the Alabama Crimson Tide occupying the top spot.

No, it is not really all that shocking that the Crimson Tide come in at No. 1. They have the best head coach ever in Nick Saban, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner under center in Bryce Young and the best player coming back at any position in edge rusher Will Anderson. Of course, there is so much more to the great game of college football than who is expected to win the whole thing.

Here are six observations regarding the ESPN Preseason RPI rankings, including Alabama at No. 1.

ESPN Preseason FPI rankings: Alabama is No. 1 and 5 more key observations

1. Alabama is No. 1 with only three other teams even remotely in the discussion

It is the usual suspects at the top of the FPI. Alabama is the top dog with Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson and Notre Dame rounding out the top five. While the Irish have a strong FPI score of 17.5, the four above them are all 23.2 or better. Those four schools are all 75 percent or better to win their divisions and all are above 50 percent to reach the College Football Playoff. The gap is huge.

2. Do not expect a new team to make its College Football Playoff debut this year

Following up the note on College Football Playoff odds, the first two teams projected out are Texas at a 21 percent chance of getting in and Notre Dame at 17.6. While Texas seems to have the best chance of being the first team to make it into the four-team field for the first time this year, they are four times less likely to get the No. 4 seed over an ACC Championship Clemson Tigers team.

3. The Auburn Tigers coming in at No. 10 is nothing short of absolute lunacy

Here is to being wrong, but how on god’s green earth are the Auburn Tigers coming at No. 10 on the FPI? Though a 13.9 FPI score is excellent, Bryan Harsin’s team is expected to go 7.4-4.6 this season. You would have to scroll all the way down to Mississippi State at No. 24 to find a team with a worse projected record than them at 6.4-5.6. Auburn might be a seventh-placed finisher.

4. Offseason momentum is cool, but it will not be the year for USC or Texas A&M

Even though there is so much optimism surrounding USC and Texas A&M this offseason, neither the Trojans or the Aggies are expected to win big in 2022. Texas A&M ranks 14th in FPI with a projected record of 7.5-4.6, while USC ranks 37th in FPI with a projected record of 7.9-4.3. While their futures are incredibly bright, 2023 will be infinitely more promising for them than this fall.

5. Marcus Freeman, Brian Kelly, Brent Venables are expected to win big in 2022

With Marcus Freeman, Brian Kelly and Brent Venables taking over blue-bloods program at Notre Dame, LSU and Oklahoma respectively, the FPI thinks it will be a strong first year for all three head coaches. Notre Dame ranks fifth in FPI, Oklahoma comes in eight and LSU is No. 11. Notre Dame and Oklahoma are expected to win over nine games apiece, while LSU should be pushing for eight.

6. No margin for error for CFP contenders like Baylor, Oklahoma State and Utah

Though Baylor, Oklahoma State and Utah are all coming off great seasons, the FPI sees very little margin for error for these three teams to potentially make the College Football Playoff for the first time. No. 13 Oklahoma State has only a 4.3 percent chance of making the four-team field. No. 15 Utah is slightly better at 4.9 percent. No. 19 Baylor has next to no chance at merely 1.2 percent.

Look for Alabama, Clemson, Georgia and Ohio State to be heading to the College Football Playoff.

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