The PGA Championship heads to Southern Hills in Tulsa this week and we’re breaking down our PGA Championship expert picks and best bets for the major.
It’s major championship time yet again as we prepare for the PGA Championship, this time taking up residence at Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, OK. This will be the fifth time the major has taken up residence at this course, the last of which was in 2007, a tournament won by none other than Tiger Woods, who will be in the field this week.
But while attention will be paid mercilessly to Tiger’s presence and Phil Mickelson’s lack thereof, we’re more focused on the players with opportunities to make real noise and contend at Southern Hills. This is a course that will require great approach play that avoids false fronts and tricky greens that can shoot you into bad spots. It’s also one that will require overall great tee-to-green play and strong short game on the bent grass greens.
So as we look at the entirety of the picture of what it’ll take to win here, let’s get into our PGA Championship expert picks for Top 5, Top 10 and Top 20 finishes in addition to our best bets and, finally, our outright picks and bets for the week.
Note: All odds are courtesy of WynnBet. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.
PGA Championship expert picks: Top 5, Top 10, Top 20, One and Done selections
Top 5 pick for PGA Championship: Hideki Matsuyama (+650)
We’ve only seen Hideki Matsuyama twice over the past month or so. In The Masters, he finished T14. Last week, he was in the Top 5 at the AT&T Byron Nelson. Matsuyama has been gaining over 0.8 strokes per round on approach over the last 40 rounds, ranking him in the top 10 in the field in that metric. Moreover, his short game, particularly his putting, has improved to make him tour average over that span. When you consider his propensity for thriving at tough, windy golf courses as well, he feels primed for a tremendous showing at Southern Hills.
Top 10 pick for PGA Championship: Shane Lowry (+300)
If you had to guess which golfer ranked fourth in the field over the last 40 rounds in Strokes Gained: Approach, Shane Lowry might not be your first guess, but it’s the correct answer. He also ranks second in total Strokes Gained over that span behind only Scottie Scheffler, who has been playing pretty well, in case you hadn’t heard. The Irishman is being severely underrated coming into the second major of the year and hasn’t finished worse than T13 in four of his five most recent starts. At these odds for a Top 10, this is a can’t-miss wager this week.
Top 20 pick for PGA Championship: Matt Fitzpatrick (+190)
Matt Fitzpatrick is someone who I and many others have frequently bet on this season because of how well he’s been playing but who hasn’t totally delivered the goods, particularly in terms of wins. However, he’s one of the most well-rounded players teeing it up this week and has the numbers to back that up as he’s been gaining strokes across the board. I do seriously worry about the win equity, but to get him just to finish Top 20 at nearly 2/1 odds is too good to pass up.
One and Done pick for PGA Championship: Hideki Matsuyama
There’s no need to belabor the point with Matsuyama here. I truly believe he can become a two-time major champion this week and his floor might be higher than any of the favorites. This is a great spot for him to be your One and Done pick.
Note: Top 5, Top 10 and Top 20 picks should also be considered best bets, though they’re not included on the next page.