Ranking the staff ace of every NL team

The National League has plenty of great pitches, but who has the best arm at the top of the rotation?

Every team in Major League Baseball has an ace in its starting rotation. The one starter that can be relied on in a do-or-die game.

For some clubs like the Washington Nationals, the staff ace (in their case, Stephen Strasburg) is set to miss the entirety of the 2022 season, pushing the No. 2 starter on the staff into the “ace” role.

Ranking the staff ace for every NL team is no simple task. With multiple clubs having more than one ace-caliber pitcher on their staff, it’d almost be easier to rank the top 30 aces but we’re going to limit it to one per team.

For this specific list; overall value, last year’s statistics and the stats to begin the 2022 regular season will all be taken into consideration.

Let’s take a look at the staff ace for each team in the National League and rank them

*Note: FanGraphs Roster Resource depth charts used, all stats up to date as of the morning of May 26th, 2022.

15. LHP Patrick Corbin (Washington Nationals)

Patrick Corbin, the 32-year old southpaw the Nats have tabbed to replace Stephen Strasburg atop their rotation, has looked rough for Washington since his first year with the team.

Aside from a strong 2019 showing, Corbin performed poorly in 2020 and then followed that performance up with easily the worst season of his big league career; posting a 9-16 record, 5.82 ERA and an ERA+ of just 69. He led the major leagues in earned runs (111) and losses (16) as well as the NL in home runs allowed (37).

To begin 2022, Corbin has made nine starts, going 0-7 with an ERA of 6.60 and six home runs allowed through just 43+ innings. He’s also walking more batters per-nine innings (4.1) than he ever has before in his career. With two more seasons left on his huge six-year, $140MM contract, the Nationals are stuck with Corbin and can do nothing but hope he turns it around.

14. LHP Madison Bumgarner (Arizona Diamondbacks)

How is Madison Bumgarner still only 32-years old? Pitching in his 14th big league season, Bumgarner is a shell of the dominant pitcher he once was with the San Francisco Giants.

Since he made the shocking decision to leave the Giants, Bumgarner has a 10-16 record with the Diamondbacks, posting a 4.65 ERA, 5.09 FIP and a 91 ERA+ in 44 starts for the club.

By measuring his ERA+, Bumgarner has been a below-average pitcher in each season since he joined Arizona. To his credit, he is off to a nice start in 2022, owning a 2.76 ERA and an ERA+ of 147. His walks and home runs-allowed are still up from his Giants days so I expect a regression to hit him hard in the near future.

13. LHP Jose Quintana (Pittsburgh Pirates)

As with Bumgarner, Jose Quintana is (highly) likely due for a regression. The 33-year old lefty has typically been a big strikeout pitcher over the course of his 11-year career but he’s only been striking out 7.5 batters per-nine innings, his lowest rate since 2013.

After splitting time between the Angels and Giants last season, Quintana signed a one-year “prove it” type of contract with the ever-rebuilding Pirates in hopes of raising his value.

Through eight starts to begin 2022, Quintana has a 2.43 ERA and has allowed just two home runs in his first 40+ innings on the season. His 169 ERA+ ranks eighth amongst qualifying starters.

Strong start aside, Quintana has not posted a sub-4.00 ERA since 2017 and has become something of a journeyman in recent years. It is unlikely he keeps this pace up, but if he does somehow find a way, he could represent Pittsburgh in this year’s All-Star Game.

12. LHP Kyle Freeland (Colorado Rockies)

Freeland, a 29-year old southpaw, is stuck on a last-place Rockies team and has done little of value since his breakout season in 2018 in which he finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting and posted a 2.85 ERA in 202+ innings.

In his first nine starts of the 2022 season, Freeland is 1-4 with a 4.60 ERA, 101 ERA+ and a surprisingly strong 3.80 FIP. He’s allowing base hits at a higher rate than he has at any point since his disastrous 2019 season.

Recently locked up to a new contract extension that will keep him in Colorado through at least 2026, Freeland will be atop this rotation for the foreseeable future but may find himself doomed by Coors Field being his home ballpark for years to come.

11. RHP Tyler Mahle (Cincinnati Reds)

If these rankings were by team’s performance, Tyler Mahle would find himself at the bottom. The Reds have been atrocious to begin 2022 and the staff’s ace has found himself to be no exception to that.

Mahle, 27, is a very young, very talented pitcher but has not looked himself through 10 starts this year. Across 47 innings, Mahle has managed a 6.32 ERA and a 73 ERA+ as well as a major league-leading 33 earned runs.

Fortunately for everyone involved, Mahle has looked strong and has shown glimpses of greatness in past seasons, including last season. In a full, 33-start season, Mahle was 13-6 with 10.5 SO/9 and a 3.75 ERA in 180 innings. He will find himself much higher on this list next year if he is able to replicate those numbers this season.