Memorial Tournament expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Breaking down our PGA Tour expert picks for the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village with our winner, Top 10 pick, best bets and more.

The golf season is about to deliver some heavy-hitting tournaments as we’re in full-blown major championship season but, also, making some big stops on the regular PGA Tour. This week, that means a trip to Ohio and Muirfield Village for the Memorial Tournament.

We all remember Patrick Cantlay winning this last year with a big asterisk after Jon Rahm tested positive for COVID while in a commanding lead and having to withdraw. But with neither of those players in the same form, will we see them recapture it at Muirfield or have new blood come to the forefront?

Before we get into our PGA Tour expert picks for this week, though, we want to be transparent and last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge picks were not good. Davis Riley was in contention but didn’t get the win as my pick. Meanwhile, Jordan Spieth finished T7 for a solid One and Done payout but the rest of our bets missed.

We’re getting the money back this week, though, and let’s do it with our PGA Tour expert picks for the Memorial Tournament along with several best bets for the week.

Note: All odds are courtesy of WynnBet. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

PGA Tour expert picks for the Memorial Tournament: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Pick to Win the Memorial Tournament: Shane Lowry (+2500)

Over the last 40 rounds, Shane Lowry ranks fourth in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach. But of the Top 5, Lowry leads that group in SG: Off-the-Tee and Putting while being second in Around the Green. His form has been intensely underrated this year and, even better, he was T6 at this event last year. It’s only a matter of time before the Irishman notches his next win and I’m thinking this is a great field for him to show his form and do it in.

Top 10 pick for the Memorial Tournament: Davis Riley (+400)

Riley didn’t get the win for us last week but he didn’t show me anything to make me believe his form is going away. The PGA Tour rookie hasn’t finished worse than T13 in any of his last five starts and, if not for a bad missed putt and errant drive OB on the next hole, he could’ve won last week. His ball-striking has been great, ranking fourth in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 20 rounds in addition to seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green and first in SG: Total over that same span. Getting this number for a Top 10 when he hasn’t proven he can win on Tour is a gift.

One and Done Pick for the Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm

So what has Jon Rahm done in his last two trips to play the Memorial? Well, he won in 2020 and was about to win last year when he was forced to WD after the third round due to a positive COVID test while up by six strokes and having already gained more strokes on the field through three rounds than he did in the entire 2020 tournament when he won. Rahm’s form has been suspect this year by his standards but we know the talent and his history is undeniable. Bank on this for this week.

Memorial Tournament best bets: Top 5, Top 20 and longshot plays

Every week, Iain Macmillan of BetSided and myself break down our best bets and more on Green on the Greens. Check out this week’s episode and our picks here.

Jon Rahm to finish Top 5 (+240)

Everything I said about Rahm stands true here as well. The lack of form does worry me in regards to betting him to win at such a low number (+1000), which is why I’m looking at a Top 5 number. Still getting north of +200, take this and don’t think twice about it.

Chris Kirk to finish Top 20 (+225)

Chris Kirk has a bit of a mixed history at the Memorial Tournament but has three Top 26 finishes for his career, including going in that spot last year when he lost more than 2.0 strokes off the tee and gained only 0.01 strokes on approach. He’s been in great form with two straight Top 15 finishes, including fifth at the PGA Championship, in his last two starts and is fifth in the field over the last 20 rounds in SG: Tee-to-Green. I’m riding this bet at these types of odds until the wheels fall off.

Rickie Fowler to finish Top 20 (+300)

Don’t look now, but we’re seeing signs of life from Rickie Fowler with three straight made cuts and with him gaining 0.39 strokes per round on approach over his last 20 rounds and finding more stability with his short game as well. More importantly, Fowler has terrific history at Muirfield Village with four Top 15 finishes (including a runner-up finish) in the last five years. I love for him to  keep building on this and getting this number for a Top 20 is great value to still try and beat the narrative starting to turn.

Longshot pick to win: Si Woo Kim (+9000)

Can I interest you in a golfer who has finished T9 and T18 in his last two trips to Muirfield Village, has a history of being a horse for certain courses, is gaining 0.75 strokes tee-to-green over his last 40 rounds and is at +9000? That’s Si Woo Kim. Do I think he wins? Probably not. But at these odds, I love sprinkling him for Top 20 pretty comfortably and, with how hot Kim can get at times, another small investment in him to win isn’t the worst idea.

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