Above the Break: Are the Las Vegas Aces still WNBA championship favorites?

This week, Above the Break is looking at what’s going on with the Las Vegas Aces, plus we’ll talk WNBA All-Star snubs and Tina Charles in Seattle.

Welcome back to Above The Break, FanSided’s weekly look around the WNBA.

We don’t do a weekly power ranking, but if we did, we would have had our first change at No. 1 of the season, with the Sky and their four-game win streak moving into the top spot. Chicago has gone 8-2 in its last 10 games and now shares the league’s best record with the Aces.

Are the Las Vegas Aces okay?

So, about the Aces.

Vegas has now lost three of the team’s last four games, with the only victory in that span coming against the Sparks in a game where Vegas was held to 79 points. Considering how the Aces were setting the world on fire to start the year, this 1-3 stretch is not ideal.

So, two questions about Vegas. First, is this team still the favorite?

Easy answer: no.

More complicated answer: no, Vegas isn’t the favorite now. The Aces are still among the favorites, but this offense was playing at such a world-crushing level to open the season that Vegas looked like it was a tier above everyone else. But the team looks human now and Vegas has gone from having a seemingly insurmountable grip atop the W to being just one of the teams at the top with Chicago and Connecticut.

Second question: what’s going on?

Part of it is simply schedule strength. Vegas is on a 1-3 stretch. The losses were to Chicago, Washington and Seattle, the other best teams in the league. Playing all of those teams so close together is tough.

This is also where the depth concerns start to come into play. In the loss to the Sky, every starter played at least 30 minutes. Having that little bench depth is an issue against a team that plays as fast as Chicago. Players get tired and that tiredness is best seen on the defensive end, where the team allowed 104 points.

Looking at the last four games for each team, Vegas is just seventh in the league in offensive rating over that span and is ninth in defensive rating. The team had a -3.2 net rating over that stretch.

Vegas was so good earlier in the season because everyone was going out there and performing at a high level, which hid the fact that the team has depth issues. But just one link in that chain struggling can have a ripple effect. Dearica Hamby has shot 25 percent or worse from the floor in three consecutive games. Chelsea Gray was a combined 0-for-6 from 3 in those three losses. This team has the most talented starting five in the W, but the lack of depth — especially in the backcourt — means that there’s less room for error. Earlier in the season, they looked so good that we could effectively ignore that concern. But now, I’m worried. If Hamby is having a bad night or if Gray isn’t hitting her shots, there’s not much you can do about it except keep playing them and hope they shake off the dust.

The biggest WNBA All-Star snubs

Last week, I talked about the All-Star starters. Since then, the WNBA announced the full roster for the All-Star game. And, of course, there are snubs.

Of the many players who missed the All-Star team, two stand out: Allisha Gray and Kelsey Mitchell.

Gray has been the Wings best player in 2022:

She’s been more important on defense and more impactful on offense than anyone else on the Wings this year, including teammate Arike Ogunbowale, who made the All-Star team.

And this isn’t meant as disrespect to Arike. When she’s on her game, there’s almost no one who can score as she does. And Arike is shooting better than she did last season and has upped her scoring average from 18.7 to 19.3 points per game. But her turnovers are up and she can be a liability defensively. Putting Gray in over Arike would have been an easy swap.

And then there’s Mitchell. Indiana was the only team to not have an All-Star selection and while I understand that not every team needs an All-Star, it’s notable that Mitchell missed. If we’re going off scoring, she’s fourth in the W at 19.2 points per game, just 0.1 behind Arike. She’s also 12th in the W in assists per game and is shooting 41.2 percent from 3.

So, Tina Charles…

Oh, you didn’t think this column would skip the Tina Charles situation, did you?

Word emerged on Saturday that Tina Charles had left the Mercury:

The next hour or so was just a ton of confusion. What did the tweet mean? Was there a misunderstanding? Was this really the Twitter account of Wings announcer Ron Thulin?

Well, it turned out there there was no misunderstanding. That’s Thulin and the tweet meant what it said, as Charles and the Mercury reached a buyout to make her a free agent.

Navigating how to talk about that situation is tough. I’m all for player empowerment, but this situation feels trickier than that. Charles’ former teammates in Phoenix were clearly upset with her behavior, including one teammate reportedly shouting “F*ck Tina Charles” during Saturday’s game against the Wings.

At the same time, it’s also true that the Mercury team Charles joined wasn’t the one she anticipated joining. There’s no Brittney Griner. There’s a first-year head coach and while Charles was aware of that when she signed, you have to wonder if that played into this decision.

After the buyout, Charles signed with the Storm. She came off the bench in her Seattle debut, playing 16 minutes and scoring four points on 2-for-8 shooting.

There’s been chatter that Charles wanted out of Phoenix because she wanted more shots. If true, Seattle’s a weird landing spot. Breanna Stewart and Jewell Loyd are better offensive players. Ezi Magbegor should remain the starter at center if you’re trying to win basketball games, because her impact defensively is huge. Where does that leave Charles? Is she a microwave scorer off the bench? Is that a role she’ll be able to do? Will Charles sacrifice shot attempts in the pursuit of a win?

Per Basketball-Reference, Charles has 0.5 win shares this year, which ranks behind a whole bunch of players, including Teaira McCowan, Chiney Ogwumike and Danielle Robinson. You can’t really say any of those three have had good seasons. In terms of win shares per 40 minutes, Charles is at .035, which ranks in the bottom half of the league.