2022 Fantasy Football draft value: Sleepers, busts and more
By Ryan McCloy
Quarterbacks:
Best Value: Trey Lance, San Fransisco 49ers
ADP 124.2, QB 14
No, Lance has not been tagged as the starter just yet. Jimmy Garoppolo, though in the midst of recovery from shoulder surgery, is still on the roster. That being said, Garoppolo has been at the center of trade talks since the late stages of the 2021 regular season.
Lance was the third overall pick in 2021, and since then, it has seemed that Garoppolo’s days in San Fransisco were numbered. Like Mahomes in 2017 (one), Lance started only a limited number of games (two) in his rookie season.
In comparing the two in stats per game, Mahomes threw for more yards with a better completion percentage (predominantly due to Lance’s less-than-stellar Week 5 start), But Lance had more touchdowns, took fewer sacks per game, and showed a superior rushing ability to Mahomes, who has become something of an escape artist in today’s game.
It may only be a matter of days until Lance is named the starter, at which point we should expect his ADP to rise quickly. Until then, don’t be afraid to target him as a QB2 with immense upside, or, if you’re feeling particularly bold, maybe even as a QB1.
Worst Value: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
ADP 34.2, QB 2
“But Ryan, didn’t you just go on about how Mahomes is the gold standard for QB production?” Perhaps so – in 2018, when he was throwing to Tyreek Hill and a 29-year-old Travis Kelce.
Kelce remains in Kansas City, though he has crossed the 30-year age threshold (He’ll be 33 by the start of Week 5 this season), and all of his key stats (Receptions, Yards, and Touchdowns) declined by at least 12 percent last season in comparison to the season prior. I expect JuJu Smith-Schuster and Skyy Moore to have productive seasons, but Hill they are not.
This was honestly a difficult call, as Mahomes is not the only signal-caller to have lost his top target going into the 2022 season. He is, however, the only one being drafted in the top 50 picks. Unless you play in a QB-premium league, I would strongly recommend waiting on drafting a QB until the later rounds.
Think about it this way – the difference between QBs 1 and 10, in Points per Game, was 4.1 points per game (PPG). RBs 1-10, by the same metric, varied by 8.1 PPG. Still not convinced? This year, RB 10 is being drafted around pick 20, whereas QB10 is being drafted around pick 80. The RBs drafted around pick 80? The likes of Devin Singletary and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who averaged about 11 points per game last year, about 20 fewer points per game than the top RBs.
Wait on quarterbacks, kids, especially Mahomes, as there’s always more value at the position later in drafts.
Like him in this spot: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
ADP 151.9, QB 16
What exactly does this category refer to? Tua is a player that I see as very appropriately drafted. I do expect Tua to be rostered in nearly every league, as he should be one of the primary bye-week or injury fill-ins. In other words, a solid QB2, where is exactly where he is being drafted, in the second rotation of QBs drafted. For example, in a 12-team league, there are 12 starting QBs, and Tua would fall somewhere in the upper tier of QBs drafted as backups on each team.
Tua not only showed improvement last year (increasing his completion percentage, yards, TDs and rushing yards) but also added a new All-Pro Left Tackle and, oh yeah, one of the NFL’s best WRs to throw to. Even if Tagovailoa fails to meet his potential as a top-five NFL pick, he has enough of a team around him that he should up at least very serviceable fantasy QB numbers.