3M Open picks: Expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Breaking down our 3M Open PGA Tour expert picks for this week with the trip to TPC Twin Cities as the FedExCup Playoffs approach quickly. 

There’s always going to be a hangover after a grueling, unforgettable major championship like The Open Championship at St. Andrews was. But while the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities this week may not boast a ton of star power, with the FedExCup Playoffs just weeks away, it’s always fascinating to watch players fight and claw for their spot in the Top 125 and see which young stars can truly emerge.

For our best bets and PGA Tour expert picks, The Open was a bit of a tough scene. We were all over Rory McIlroy and cashed his Top 10 (along with the Tyrrell Hatton Top 20) but the rest of our bets simply fell just a little short in most cases. The brightest spot would be Tommy Fleetwood with a T4 as our One and Done pick. So at least there’s that.

But I’ve long said that I prefer fields like the one right outside of Minneapolis this week for the betting opportunities.

Without question, you have to be smart with how you wager and I would recommend limiting your unit size and the number of units you plan to play this week, as I do for all tournaments with relatively weak fields. Having said that, there is some confidence to be had here as we dive into my PGA Tour expert picks for the 3M Open.

Note: All odds are courtesy of WynnBet. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

PGA Tour expert picks for 3M Open: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Pick to Win the 3M Open: Adam Svensson (+4500)

If you’ve followed my picks before, there’s a chance you’ve seen me back Adam Svensson before. And it’s hard not to still be on that train with the way he’s playing. The Canadian has finished in the Top 25 in his last four starts, highlighted by a T6 two weeks ago at the Barbasol leading into this tournament appearance. He’s a fantastic ball-striker who has been doing that well but has really found his stroke with the putter, a weakness for him earlier in the year. I love his upside and think he can really make noise in a weak 3M Open field.

Top 10 pick for the 3M Open: Davis Riley (+250)

Speaking of guys who I can’t quit, Davis Riley is one of them. His run of nothing worse than T13 finishes that lasted nearly two months ended but I can chalk that up to fatigue with how often he was playing. Now, he’s had a break since the Travelers and I like for him to come back and show his elite form. His ball-striking has been top-notch and his short game, though seemingly volatile, can pop in a big way. I’m sprinkling on him outright as well but I love this number for him to just finish inside the Top 10.

One and Done Pick for the 3M Open: Adam Svensson

Even if Svensson doesn’t win this week, I love for him to finish well at the very least (plus, I’ve already used Riley, which limits the guys who I’m truly comfortable with for a One and Done pick). He’s been playing extremely consistently and well before coming to a course that could play to many of his strengths. I love for him to show up well and get us a nice addition to the total this week.

3M Open picks and best bets

Christopher Gotterup to finish Top 20 (+225)

Betting on Chris Gotterup is to take a big swing reminiscent of the PGA Tour rookie off the tee. He’s a massive hitter who drives the ball on average over 320 yards off the tee, which can be a huge advantage here given that two of the three past winners are Matthew Wolff and Cameron Champ. What really makes me intrigued with Gotterup, though, is that he’s also gained 0.8 strokes on approach per round and gained with the putter over his last 20 rounds. That’s a recipe for success that I like for him to keep up this week.

Adam Long to finish Top 10 (+350)

Granted, he hasn’t played in a few weeks since the John Deere Classic, but Adam Long has been in some pretty damn good form lately. He’s been in the Top 25 in his last three starts, including T13 at the John Deere. His profile of late also looks solid for the 3M Open as he’s gaining strokes everywhere but around the green, which is not a big factor here. Long’s lack of length, ironically, off of the tee is why I don’t have him for something more aggressive but I still think it’s a good number for a Top 10 in this field.

Rickie Fowler to finish Top 20 (+250)

We haven’t seen the Rickie Fowler we once knew in quite some time. However, what we’ve seen lately should be promising, even if it’s not a finished product. He’s started to put multiple rounds of positive play together these days, but just hasn’t found four good ones in a row. With that said, his weaknesses are starting to level out and he’s only lost meaningful strokes off the tee in his last 40 rounds.

More importantly, Fowler is currently outside of the Top 125 in the FedExCup standings. He needs to finish strong to make the playoffs and I like for him to ride that motivation to a quality showing at TPC Twin Cities.

Longshot pick to win the 3M Open: Callum Tarren (+11000)

If you recognize the name, Callum Tarren made some hay at the US Open over about 2.5 rounds before fading out of contention. But overall, he’s been popping up quite a bit lately with some good form, albeit mixed in with a couple of missed cuts. In his last four tournaments since the US Open, he’s finished T6 and T22 when he’s not missed the cut.

This long-driver has upside and has been gaining strokes across the board in his last 20 rounds. In a weak field, he’s shown upside that is far better than what this longshot number would suggest.

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